Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8117. (Read 26713145 times)

It seems to me that there are plenty of longer term BTC HODLers who have established some kind of incrementalism investment plan, presume that bitcoin is kind of designed to pump for a decently long period of time into the future (if not "designed to pump forever" as Matt Odell likes to proclaim) going to appreciate in value to an amount that is at least competitive, if not greater, than the average returns of various interest bearing investments.  Accordingly, there does not really seem to be any kind of justification to attempt to "earn interest" on your bitcoin..especially if HODLers end up putting their bitcoins at risk by attempting to employ various kinds of interest-seeking ways to HODL their bitcoin(s).

In a world where the FED panic, who am I to not panic? LoL

Now people see that too and that interest cut pump is gone fast.

I don't know what is safe. Probably nothing. Not gold, not cash, not btc.

this is a complete global meltdown. Many people will die. This is not a small scale war in the Middle East.

The dollar is pulling a supernova. No matter what the FED do, it will keep going up because the demand is infinite on dollar.

The FED is trying to counter balance it by putting more money into the system but how can you counter infinite demand? By creating infinite supply. That 700billion is nothing. Make it 700 quadrillion.

Hm?  Does not seem likely to be very long away at all... probably 6-9 months in a worser-case scenario... and could be 1-2 months in a better case(but seemingly unlikely) scenario... some where between those two scenarios seem the most likely..

Your presumption of a kind of longer game of over a 18 months to 3 years before BTC gets back into challenging ATHs seem quite implausible, even though your theories do seem to have some chances, even though seemingly small.. and sure, your presumed timeline would:  1) largely challenge or even come close to negating the stock to flow model... 2) surely you are negating the four-year fractal model.. and 3) theoretically delay the happenings of the s-curve exponential adoption based on network/metcalfe effects model.

But, hey, each of us have our theories and our assignments of probabilities to outcomes.. We might need to call your BTC price predictions the Majormax model, even though it seems to be based on a kind of wishful-thinking and desire to negate the most convincing of current BTC price prediction models.. and it does not even have a decent name yet.. maybe we could call your BTC price prediction model the "Majormax's BTC is a mature asset model?"  Wat-chya think?.

Personally, at least on my side, I have come to peace with Mark, and I would love to hear what he has to say.

My rudeness toward him is a matter of record, which I will own.

Date Registered:   January 04, 2012, 02:23:16 PM

You must be talking about the crash of August 2012...

Damn, you're an old-timer. Had no idea -- there's only a handful of accounts as old as yours that are still active. Well OK, maybe a couple hundred, but still...


Speaking of old accounts, the Mark Karpeles "MagicalTux" account woke up recently, but hasn't posted since 2013. Maybe he has something to say about the upcoming Gox repayments.

Do you presume that bitserve has "bite" in his name for mere symbolic purposes? 

Do you happen to know the past tense of bite?

You better watch your lil selfie....  gonna get chewed up... and don't come crying to any of the WO peeps as if no one tried to warn you about welcoming such lil selfie consumptions.   

I am even more negative:


Astute observers have been predicting the collapse of the system (including the global financial system) for about the past half-century.  Not “if”, but “when”.

If the current-events trend does not change soon (NOT the damn virus, but people’s reaction to it), well... you may wish that you had traded all of your government-issued toilet paper for literal toilet paper.  (Actually—for food, gold, tools, and weapons.)  Is this a good time to HODL fiat?


Accumulating more Bitcoin right now is a hedge on the potential that S will not totally HTF.  In that case, you may well wish for assets in a form free from direct government control which (if you know what you are doing) is very easy to conceal, transport, and convey.  It is not alarmist to observe that things are already pretty bad in many places.

In case of total SHTF, neither government-issued currency nor the Internet will exist.  In that case, you would need the other side of that hedge:  You need to have spent at least the past few years quietly making the sorts of preparations that most people laugh at.  If you already did that, then you don’t need for me to tell you that now is not a good time to be competing with desperate people for more of things that you already wisely prepared.  Whereas if you didn’t, then starting that now is too late!  Don’t be another desperate headless chicken.  Just buy more Bitcoin, hope for the best... and if you die, at least you will die HODLing.

How is that for negativity?  :-)

Trace was starting to act too weird recently.

Of course, he always had some various elitism pompous bullshit that seemed to have been building in him and even inflating his ego a bit, which maybe is difficult to control when you have been in the space and telling folks to get into bitcoin at $.05 or whatever those beginning low, low prices were.

The thing is that a guy like him should not need to get richer, so hopefully he did not play around too much.  Furthermore, the nonsense of him buying up mimblewimble and promoting that bullshit might not have fared well for him, either.

Maybe there is a point somewhere between having plenty.. like having $10million to $30million and then getting above those kinds of $10million to $30million amounts that contributes to some guys feeling that it has come within reach for them to join a kind of wealthy elite status, and they start thinking in terms of global political dick-measuring rather than just personal comfort.  Seems to happen to some of them.. .so I don't know, if it becomes a thing, and maybe even a desire to become a market-making whale rather than a mere mortal market taker?

Am I right though?  $10million to $30million could be a kind of personal comfort level and maybe bordering on filthy rich without necessarily the filthy part, but maybe some guys cannot really resist getting into the filthy part, once getting above those $10million to $30million levels?  I am thinking that Trace has to have at least 4,000 bitcoin (and probably more likely greater than 10k bitcoin), but he may have pilferred away some of that personal stash in some of these latest gamblings whether placing puts, as you say biodom or the seemingly overinvesting (or trying to corner the market) in mimblewimble crap.  Here's a link to information about the trace mayer mimblewimble drama.

Yeah I dunno

I shaved off my "feeling better" money at $13

dollars

...I ain't doing that shit again

Why you have to start with down first?  You negative nancy!!!!!!!!!!   


You are correct to suggest that if some, or several of these things, have to close for any significant amount of time, beyond a few minutes, then that is going to mean continued cascading and lack of confidence... and, sure it is possible to have continued down for another week or two.. or maybe longer..

But we could possibly get up before getting down... which might only be a temporary break in the "down" situation.

I’m in Bitcoin, because I never had faith in humanity.  Bitcoin is a system which exploits ruthless self-interest to coerce people who hate each other into cooperation—for the good of Bitcoin, not for each other.

I am sorry for your loss.  By that I mean, your dearly departed coins which I know you are mourning.

I have all of my life savings in Bitcoin.  All the liquid money that I have, aside from hand-to-mouth scraps of fiat to cover my mundane expenses (and I live simply).  It is money that I cannot afford to lose; for I was never an investor, and I never thought of it as a financial investment per se.  Bitcoin is to me more than money.  Also, I can’t preach something to people if I’m not living it.  —Also, I play for keeps; and that means going all in.  I have always been that way.

For the past few days, I have been ignoring the market (as I usually do).  I don’t even know the current price exchange rate (non-monetary commodities have prices; currencies have exchange rates!).

I couldn’t panic-sell, even if I wanted to:  I have never had a KYCed fiat-crypto exchange account.  Getting my money into Bitcoin anonymously was a major project; and it cost dearly, especially given that I was ignoring the market as usual.  Selling my coin for fiat would be even more difficult, because it’s easier to spend fiat cash anonymously than to obtain fiat cash anonymously.  But I don’t mind being stuck with Bitcoin.  Married to it.

Now, it is foreseeable that in the near future, I may wind up with Bitcoin and no food.  I am a practical man; and frankly, I will admit that I would rather have food.  Still, I am glad that I have my Bitcoin.  Bitcoin makes me happy.


That is actually not emotional on my part; and it is not a religion, my sense of humour notwithstanding.  Bitcoin is the concrete embodiment of higher principles.  At this point in history, it is one thing that can help slow our descent into a terrible abyss.  That, I care about more than I care about money.

---

I don’t recommend buybacks based on emotions, any more than I would recommend panic-selling.  The cool, savvy approach will result in having more Bitcoin in the long run.  I do think the banks are trashing us now.  Panic-selling means money value in their pockets (correction noted as to a principle that most people never understand: the nature of money); so would whipsawing around with effectually FOMOing.  Just pretend that you are approaching this for the first time—so, how would you get into Bitcoin now?  Pretend that you just saw the term “maximalism” for the first time, and you’re such a n00b that you assume it means maximizing the amount of Bitcoin that you have. ;-)

You, brad, seem a bit inclined to do a "mindrust," and probably you should have shaved off a tiny bit of insurance (or "feeling better" money) in the $8,500 to $10,500 price range, instead of waiting for $11,111.11.  We can never know and we cannot really time the tops, but it seems that you are just way too damned over-invested for your own psychological state....

Alternatively, if you shave a little off in the lower $5ks, you will be less inclined to panic "shave-off" if we end up revisiting $3,124-ish, which may even be approaching 50% odds, at the moment...  Surely, the odds for  revisiting $3,124-ish have increased in the past week or so, but I have a hard time, currently, placing those odds at greater than 50%, even though I am having my doubts, too about my own perception of what are reasonable assignment odds, currently.

My personal plan remains to continue to buy on the way down, and I currently have buy orders set down to the lower $3ks - and those buy orders would fill in any kind of flash-crash, quickie correction and currently, I am contemplating whether I need to inject a bit more dollars into "active" status to set such currently existing buy orders to a bit lower amounts.. I am NOT wanting any of those downward price moves to become true.. but now, as I type, we are in a kind of reasonable striking distance of such target testings of buy support, and surely there are k-niving and scheming bearwhales (and likely even fractional reserve cheaters) who would like to attempt to inspire more and more losses in confidence in BTC in order to be able to shake a few more weak hands... so, you, brad, might want to be shaken at a time of your own choosing rather than being cornered into a "mindrust-like bust".^tm

You will thank me later (perhaps?) unless the BTC price goes up from here, then you are going to be pissed off at me, even though I do not deserve blame for your ongoingly seemingly wannabe shakeable psychological state.   

BTC fomo price increases due to news will quickly return to where it started, once there are still dump pumps over $ 500 $ 600 like this, it is when the market is unstable. So, my opinion in this situation is holding assets in USDT because BTC price is very vulnerable to being pumped by news in the current situation. As the effects of the COVID-19 epidemic are becoming more severe in the US and Europe, I think that the trend over the next few days is the downtrend.

but if CME does not like it?
see previous page...
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54036351

Any announcement that raises the price of Bitcoin is welcome.

QE4 Begins: Fed Cuts Rates, Buys $700B in Bonds; Bitcoin Rallies 7.7%




Source: https://www.coindesk.com/qe4-begins-fed-cuts-rates-buys-700b-in-bonds-bitcoin-rallies-7-7?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I've muted him (all of them) on twitter and its still difficult to shut him up.

We're ready for the big one it seems. This is what BTC was built for, stand solid in what you believe, Bitcoin is watching, be proud.

hahahaha

Nah... that would never happen. 

He's NOT a wannabe sorcerer wannabe. 

He's actually legit.  Don't be shy... just ask him, and he will tell you.


 

I'm sure this money will find its way into the "right" pockets, no doubt.....

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exclusive-fed-is-throwing-money-in-the-wrong-place-says-sheila-bair-former-top-banking-regulator-2020-03-15