I doubt that we are going to go shooting up to $20k, but I could see shooting up to $17,500.
Yet, what the fuck do I know?
I am continuing to think that once we get in the $17,500 to $23,000 range, we are not going to be hanging around in those territories for very long.. .yeah we could be there for a couple of months.. but is kind of like bat country... in my ongoing thinkenings.
I have been thinking exactly the same.... Many people would like to unload their coins at this range and it will make them angry and fomo back in at higher prices, when they see BTC keep pumping.
It could be like a repeat to early 2017 when BTC reached 1k again.
The only thing, as JJG also stated some days ago, is: This time it's different.
Now the halving effect is well known and many want to jump the boat before anyone else does.
Imo it just needs a little confidence that the bears have actually given up (and now might be the time).
I don't know how i think about the matter, exactly. It's like we have a model that plays out in very similar ways, but some of the specifics and therefore the dynamics vary to some degree, but in the end, we might be witnessing distinctions without a difference.
For example, in 2015 we had a long ass period of flat of about 9 months for what ended up being our bottom, and so when late 2018 hit us with another halvening of the BTC price from $6k to $3k, there was an expectation that our bottom was going to get drug out, but instead, about 4 months into it, we experienced a 3.5x bounce, but then about a 5 correction that ends up bring us back to almost the same place of our fractal overlay, so yeah, there are some BIGGER players monkeying around with this market but they better be BIGGER and the better be able to move the market 15x or so more because our price is around 15x greater, too.
The financial tools that are available are more complex including the impact of the thousands of froth coins, but in the end, all of those factors may NOT end up making a difference, but the BIG players really want to show the various price prediction models to be wrong and even to break those models, and the same was true in 2014-2017, and they really were NOT able to accomplish such breaking, even while they could manipulate the BTC price down for periods that seemed longer than sustainable, part of the loss of control when BTC prices finally went up was a product of their own making (NOT that they intentionally planned for that, the price just ended up playing out like that).
So, yeah, my thinking remains torn on this, because I am ok. to look at the price prediction models and to attempt to use them as a guide, while at the same time attempting to see where we are at and how far the price or even the BTC price dynamics are deviating from the model and questioning the extent to which there might be some explanation for why the BTC price might be deviating from the price prediction model.
A similar thing is true with bat country. Sure, I really only experienced one bat country - and that was our early 2017 re-entering the $900 to $1,300 price range (previous high was $1,163). Sure there was a bit of dancing around in that area, but when we really look back at it, we can see that we were NOT hanging out there for very long. The same was true when looking at the most recent historical price points of $32 and $263, too.... so we get senses about what bat country is going to be like, but we cannot really rest assured and with a 100% confidence... merely a kind of 75% (or maybe even less?), inclination.
