I'm not too fond of spicy food or spicy pasta, but that's just me. I like them bland.
Just like your wimmens?
I keed, I keed.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8754. (Read 26630603 times)
December 17, 2019, 08:04:56 PM
Just like your wimmens?
I keed, I keed.
December 17, 2019, 08:00:19 PM
I don’t think it works like that. These aren’t futures in the conventional sense.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
In that case the BTC will either have to be lent by the counterparty or sold by them. I admit I don't know how Bitfinex works.
Are we saying that Bitfinex itself is therefore acting as the defacto trade counterparty ? That sounds distinctly dodgy.
Yes you lend $ or BTC on BFX. BFX is not the counterparty, just the exchange.
December 17, 2019, 07:58:20 PM
I don’t think it works like that. These aren’t futures in the conventional sense.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
In that case the BTC will either have to be lent by the counterparty or sold by them. I admit I don't know how Bitfinex works.
Are we saying that Bitfinex itself is therefore acting as the defacto trade counterparty ? That sounds distinctly dodgy.
December 17, 2019, 07:55:08 PM
This happens too often. However, so far this year, I've been saying one same thing with everyone who talked about bitcoin: "The best performing asset of 2019!"
P.S. It's getting a bit frustrating to see that there has been no strong (at least short-term) fightback by the bulls - I hope this changes in the next few days!
We will bottom in either December or January imho. We are within $1,000 of the bottom I expect.
December 17, 2019, 07:54:03 PM
I don’t think it works like that.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
Best option.... never borrow, never be burned....
December 17, 2019, 07:53:21 PM
Most bullish sign today - https://blog.kraken.com/post/3355/kraken-otc-acquires-circle-trade/
Circle got rid of their consumer-facing service just a few short months before the bull run kicked off. Now they've gotten rid of their whale service too.
Circle got rid of their consumer-facing service just a few short months before the bull run kicked off. Now they've gotten rid of their whale service too.
Excellent. Just added to my long.
GOODmorning, mic’s gonna HODLsleep.....
December 17, 2019, 07:53:14 PM
I don’t think it works like that. These aren’t futures in the conventional sense.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market
For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.
Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.
December 17, 2019, 07:49:39 PM
What kind of sorcery is this?
This looks ridiculous. Rubbing my eyes for the 2e time...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS
This looks ridiculous. Rubbing my eyes for the 2e time...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS
This is too out of scale to be a "candid" long position building.
Noticing it started when BAKKT started. Maybe a coincidence?
This is something I will try to look into.
Very intresting.
Opened a thread: this thing is too interesting IMHO:
LONGS on BITFINEX going PARABOLIC
If enough of these longs get liquidated, all the hell will brake loose.
Whoever did that has deep pockets
This is an unprecedented open position, so worth a bit more thought :
Who will be on the short side of this total position ? It cannot be assumed that the larger traders (or whale) are taking the long side. The large trader(s) are working progressively either on the bid side to create a long, or on the offer side to create a short. The circumstantial evidence obviously points to a short side position, because the trades have been at successively lower and lower prices. Think about it.
Usually there is a lot of noise in the market, which will mask the way the open interest has happened, but in this unusual case it is crystal clear.
As to the motivation for the position, or the next step in some plan, anyone have any suggestions ?
The best guess is that this trend will continue for now, prices walking downwards for some time, with regular snap-back rallies.
December 17, 2019, 07:24:54 PM
We have more down to come for sure, but..... its okay to start nibbling at these prices as you don't want to try and buy the bottom all at once.
I have sources confirming that Bargain Boy activity has begun as promised.
Don't get too excited, this is just stage 1.
via Imgflip Meme Generator
I have sources confirming that Bargain Boy activity has begun as promised.
Don't get too excited, this is just stage 1.
via Imgflip Meme Generator
December 17, 2019, 07:19:59 PM
Starting Jan. 3, Coinfloor, the oldest crypto exchange in the UK, will support only BTC.
They are dumping ETH & BeeCash
Excellent!
#Bullish
They are dumping ETH & BeeCash
Excellent!
#Bullish
December 17, 2019, 07:10:24 PM
December 17, 2019, 06:41:26 PM
Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.
Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.
BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.
No commonality here at all.
Well, if you take an average of two numbers, then the data point would be in between, right?
We had a huge run from 3K to almost 14K in 2019. Nothing like this exists in 2015.
BTW, I am not trying to argue your TA away. I am js that we are in the uncharted waters.
December 17, 2019, 06:37:15 PM
Good buying right now given we are finally undershooting the fractal.
Thanks for TA, but it is not a fractal since nothing here is recurring (so far) vs 2015-2017.
Everything is just random move, albeit i can give you one fundamental that was critical, IMHO, in stopping the bull run in the summer and it starts with F, not a T.
BTW, my end of the year game entry is quite possible since we are still descending.
Disgusted by seemingly pitiful year end.
No commonality here at all.
December 17, 2019, 06:23:50 PM
The current price is looking sooo tempting 
Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? 
This is the question!
Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question! Wait. For sure.
Perhaps wait for sub $3k.
Why would you want to buy now? There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.
Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!
December 17, 2019, 06:10:26 PM
I dunno
I'm just not feeling the pain yet
... so it's pain you want?I'm just not feeling the pain yet
December 17, 2019, 06:04:24 PM
A bit early, but am I looking at a double bottom...
Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?
Or is it just the desire to see something to lift my... spirits?
we could bottom at around 5K (optimistically), if we go below 6.1-6.2K.
On the other hand, we can just bounce off of 6.5K and travel north.
I am not sure who is selling a nicely appreciated asset before the year end.
It's not a typical behavior.
December 17, 2019, 06:04:02 PM
I like this model, it has a lot of theory of market speculation, and investment at the same time.
Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1206979035378724868
Quote
Stock-to-flow model predicts the long term trend, and greed & fear cause the actual bitcoin price to dance around this trend. #cointegration
Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1206979035378724868
December 17, 2019, 06:02:54 PM
Stock to flow reductio ad absurdum
https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112
I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.
https://twitter.com/digitalikNet/status/1207032051779674112
I around 2041 any schmuck with 0.1BTC is a billionaire, lol.
Which is the reason stock to flow model does not predict the future price. It just does... until it doesn't.
We would be *extremely* lucky if it does for another cycle.
We would also be lucky to have a model that works as good as stocks/bonds or RE 'models' worked for the last 90-100 years or so.
Right now all btc models are lacking. Maybe the best would be neural network/Deep learning.
Yeah, but there is a difference between an "always rising" model like stocks/bonds for the past decades and a delusional forever *exponential* growth. Even a 2x rise each year would need to eventually fail. That's not the same than a ... what¿ 10-20% (or lower) yearly average historical rise of stocks and bonds?
December 17, 2019, 05:57:36 PM
The current price is looking sooo tempting Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!
Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question! Wait. For sure.
Perhaps wait for sub $3k.
Why would you want to buy now? There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.
Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!
I won't encourage you.
Investing what you need to (eventually) give back doesn't comply with the nr1 rule of don't invest what you can't afford to lose. If you do, and the worst happen, you will become a weak hand that once certain (low) price is reached will NEED to sell.
If you are able to invest whatever amount, loaned or not, and hodl till ZERO if needed... Then go ahead (DYOR though). Otherwise please don't. We don't need no more weak hands that would sell at worst possible moment and dumping the price even more.
December 17, 2019, 05:57:08 PM
The current price is looking sooo tempting Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question!
Should I go full in now, or wait for another dip? Or be rational and buy in 2-3-4 portions? This is the question! Wait. For sure.
Perhaps wait for sub $3k.
Why would you want to buy now? There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.
Actually, I am all in in terms of life savings, but not in terms of networth, since I don't have a bank loan and I own my place and a car. Now I am tempted to take a loan from the bank guaranteed only by my state job salary and not by mortgage or anything like this. I've been playing various scenarios because a bank loan is a risky thing. What I've come
to as a solution is to take one loan to buy at the current levels with monthly payments for 10 years equal to 1/6 of my salary. The annual interest is 5%, so at the end is slightly above 25% for the whole period. I can't risk all money at once, since the price can fall to 3K. If this happens I can double the loan. I still have my cold stash which would be 3x-4x bigger than the loan and is an insurance against a theoretical job loss. I suppose the risk is not too big, since my state job is with an ulimited contract. My motive is not some greed for a quick profit, but rather to reach an amount in bitcoins which I had in my mind. I tried to reach it but I failed for various reasons. And most probably I won't reach it, because max 1 year after the halving the price will stay higher than 10K. If you want to encourage me (or not) go ahead, every opinion will be appreciated!
No one can (or should) advise you to use debt to buy a volatile asset.
You must make your own choice - most people here are (like me) very bullish. However, how will you feel if you go into debt and it drops further? Anything is possible, so you must think carefully. Going into debt for speculation can go badly wrong.
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