Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8786. (Read 26610530 times)

legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight

I find it rather comforting to learn that 'Column J' has stayed well within a two-order-of-magnitude range over the listed date range.

Err...
Column J is short for Column Jbreher.

Well, it does roughly approximate my effort spent on all things Bitcoin. Though it seems to be omitting the early involvement.
legendary
Activity: 2632
Merit: 1883
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
Many positions in Longs ... Maybe the offer does not appear in the levels...

Quote
Someone is longing the hell out of bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/zackvoell/status/1204406439160242177

Quote
While looking at the chart that Voell referenced above, it is clear that there is an inverse correlation between long/short positions and price movements, as long positions dived to multi-year lows in March of 2019 when BTC was trading at yearly lows in the $3,000 region, just before it began a massive rally up to $13,800.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/10/bitcoin-longs-are-rising-rapidly-today-but-why-is-its-price-not-moving/
legendary
Activity: 1464
Merit: 1136
I am curious as to what is the price level (low or high) where 70-90% of WO sell the majority of their stake.


I'd say WO's are less likely to sell at lower prices vs higher ones. We are largely an educated lot with fundamental understandings. Entertaining the question of how to shake out 70-90% of the WO's, perhaps an extreme low around 1900 would shake the weak hands, over invested, dollar chasers etc.  then a sharp bubble like rise to 46K might shake out the long term hodl.  Perhaps in this scenario only the most hardened believers would remain however, we've already done 1,800 to 20k and many of us are still here so...
Personally, its not nearly as scary to consider much lower prices for BTC however it would be much more difficult to HODL if price goes up a lot and its believed that we are at the peak of another bubble. Higher prices have a much better chance of shakeout of WO's in my opinion.
legendary
Activity: 1778
Merit: 1008
the long term logarithmic charts are always fascinating to me. just those repeated spikes, over and over. sure only a handful of times so far, but we're talking a mere decade.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...
Calm down Bob, if BTC recovers and starts to climb perfect and if it has to go down, no problem, we will buy more, I know that this scenario does not solve your situation, but let the laggards accumulate a little more satoshis. Cool
hahahahaha.... Reminds me of this scene in Airport.  Sorry I could not find a better resolution.


Point is, the feeling I'm getting is all this price lagging is bearwhales trying to shake out the weak hands. I'm thinking a flash-crash to $6,500 for a few hours would be a great buying opportunity, and a level that people will likely starting panicking and dumping.

Sorta like "We can't go up until we go down a bit more" sorta thing (?)

I understand.  I was just razzing you, and I love that Airplane scene.  It was so funny when first seeing it and the various rewatching of those airplane movies.

I understand also that a lot of times we experience BIG down moves before we go up, but I just hate wishing for them, because they are not even necessarily a condition precedent.  Price merely gets stuck down for a lot longer than it should.  In other words, we don't need to have down before we go up, but sure it could happen.. but then again, it might not.

You have been there too, and in that regard, we have situations in bitcoin where a large number of people are expecting and hoping for down before up, and we just end up having up before more up.  I will go with whatever is the situation, while not considering that down before up has to happen, even if the odds could possibly be slightly in its favor, in the short term. Perhaps?
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I am curious as to what is the price level (low or high) where 70-90% of WO sell the majority of their stake.
I would be an interesting topic to ascertain if people would be truthful in their answers.

You have to include both time and price in order to get something that is even close to accurate answers.... otherwise assuming that WO folks would answer somewhat truthfully.

The most drawdown in a large cap stock I had ever seen was AMZN from intraday high $113 on Dec 6, 1999 to $5.67 on Sept 24, 2001, almost exactly 95% decline in approx 22 mo.

We already had this kind of decline after the first "bubblette" in 2011, but from a purely theoretical perspective, it would be (in the current cycle) from 20089 on Dec 17, 2017 (using yahoo historical data) to about $1010 sometime in the next 5-6mo (timing is already off).

I was presuming that you were talking about up.  Down might be a different story.  Some folks are not going to sell, and just will ride it to zero, if need be.



I know that these are crazy numbers, so I don't even want to give a probability of such event.
In all likelihood the modified planB "box" at the halving between 3k and 18K should hold true.

My last buy was about $7100, so above are just theoretical musings.

Below $5,000 at some point is probably 40% or so odds.  Below $3k would be less than 25%.  And, below $1k would probably be less than 5%... roughly speaking...   Maybe our odds of breaking the local low are slightly less than 50/50 since we seem to be in a bull market... but hardly anyone believes that we are in a bull market, except me and a few rare others (and I am starting to even question our bull market status, a bit).
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


JFC JJG!!!

How do you expect me to reply to this if for *each* of my lines you post several paragraphs and all with intermixed quotes to further complicate any followup?!

Do your best.


 #nohomo


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

(Note:  By the way, you don't need to respond any further.. that is totally up to you.  I won't feel shirked, at all)

Anyway it would be ungrateful on my part to not recognise your effort and good intention... Also for the most part, I do agree with the whole essence of what you posted there... which is a LOT! lol

Could be that I threw a few extra ideas in there, accidentally.  

I was thinking further that it would be nice if DOWN proclaimers like lambie and jonoiv get punished the fuck out of, but like we already mentioned, it is very difficult to know whether the down is over yet or not.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
I dont like the mountain picture, if they are building a road over a mountain pass there is never a reason I heard of to exclusively take the highest point.   Whats the point of an analogy if detail it might provide to natural dynamics are ignored, a road over a mountain takes a heck of alot of twists and turns and as we know BTC though its grown alot has also jumped around such a massive amount.   Anyone new to this game might lose this detail and Im not sure such an illustration is helpful especially as the vast majority of views, clicks even readers will skim the message and attempt to summarise anything said.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7912
^
Good good let it happen most important “sorry being selfish  Kiss” is for myself that I know I’m not to be shaken out, especially not from about 2 minutes from now, cause then I will be entering my HODLsleep

Nite bro’s



 Good night Mr. MicG Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 807
Merit: 423

Probably more fair to start measuring BTC price or value from 2012, if not a bit later.. but hey.. we can assess that there was some liquidity and price finding abilities that were starting to occur in 2010 and 2011
I think rational price discovery started early as late August or September 2010

What were the exchanges?  GOX?  Sure was hard to send any money to GOX in 2010... but hey, late 2010 is way the hell more reasonable for a starting point than anytime in 2009 - especially January 2009.   
It started on Gox.
Bitcointalk member kellrobinson did a quadratic regression with time as a function of price to get a "sideways" parabola with basically a perfect fit to the local minima of bitcoin usd price history.  The history is Gox and Bitstamp concatenated.   The parabola's apex is at September 8, 2010.

legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
^
Good good let it happen most important “sorry being selfish  Kiss” is for myself that I know I’m not to be shaken out, especially not from about 2 minutes from now, cause then I will be entering my HODLsleep

Nite bro’s
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331


https://twitter.com/BTCarchitect/status/1204497761472786439?s=20

Which road will we follow  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Or something completely different?  Cheesy

Interestingly, both of his scenarios do not violate planB scenario as presented (further analyzed) by @phraudsta:
https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]

I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.

Can’t say the same for Alts  Shocked

That would be pretty scary, if it were to happen.  Maybe less than 33.3% odds of happening, and maybe you are rooting for V8 to win the bet (with Hairy) before the end of February, which would be even lower odds, perhaps less than 22.2%?  I am just ballpark guessing on the odds, by the way.
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.


https://twitter.com/BTCarchitect/status/1204497761472786439?s=20

Which road will we follow  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Or something completely different?  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
~snip~

You should change your tagline to "MATIC didn't Dump itself!" Just for shits and grins. Grin

Sounds good mate.

...

Done! Grin

IOU +sM Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1520
~snip~

You should change your tagline to "MATIC didn't Dump itself!" Just for shits and grins. Grin

Sounds good mate.

...

Done! Grin
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
^^^--- Was a good episode.
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 4738
diamond-handed zealot
legendary
Activity: 1795
Merit: 1208
This is not OK.
MATIC was launched by Binance's launchpad and has throughout remained one of CZ's favorite projects (according to CZ's tweets about it). It really feels like it was a coordinated dump by the MATIC's Indian team and Binance (don't forget that Binance even offers margin trading on MATIC, which made a few people super-rekt overnight).

$MATIC holders basically became 1% poorer every 15 seconds for 30+ mins in a row




That is unnaturally linear!
Jump to: