........but for 2020 no reason to be optimistic. I will personally sell at 9k and wait for another buy point which would be around 4k next year.
PS: there is nothing "trolling" about calling bear trends. It is crystal clear the trend is bearish right now and will last for at least 6 months.
I would say that scenario is pretty bearish. Of course, you are not calling for zero, but you are fairly strongly asserting that $6,515 is not our bottom for this part of the correction. I actually am o.k. that $6,515 might end up getting tested again, and part of the reason is that we are still within pretty close striking distance of that price.
So, $4k scenario is another thing, which seems difficult to get to, especially since we already had about 85% correction and then another 62% correction which seems more than sufficient in order to largely resume up, but to perhaps again challenge the 62% part of it.... but $4k would bring us pretty damned close to challenging the 85% which seems to ignore a lot of the development and even the scarcity aspects of bitcoin, including that some people coming into bitcoin largely remove their coins from liquidity and they do not trade them or even put them in a place that is tradeable.
Regarding your not to be optimistic about 2020 assertion, perhaps there could be some sense that any additional attempted testing of the bottom could carry on and take a decent while to resolve, yet the halvening brings strong physical pressures on supply, that will likely become stronger and stronger felt, especially as time passes after the halvening.... and even players like BAKKT seem to be making certain demands of some of the BTC supply, and some of those likely larger players getting into bitcoin through BAKKT are going to become enlightened to bitcoin, but also learn about the direct buying of bitcoin and holding their own stash, which means more BTC removed from the market... so we will see, we will see. I think what you are describing is in the lower than 25% probability area rather than really any kind of scenario that should be treated seriously in terms of more probable paths that are surely less bearish, and really more bullish... which does seem to be the more likely path that we are on... we are in a bull market, by the way, so there is that, too... and we would have to get out of the bull market before bearish scenarios would approach 50/50 probabilities.