Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8968. (Read 26610076 times)

Yeah, I came to the same conclusion. Lightning is very cool, but a time sink and not very profitable. I have been getting back into VR to pass some time and do development.

Nice.  I watched it (30 minutes), and I agree that Simon Dixon is both a bitcoin bullish kind of guy, and he is also quite knowledgeable about how money works.

Here’s some Mining TA for you:
https://twitter.com/sgbarbour/status/1193254838395711488

Well, you can try to extrapolate from here.

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l

And here

https://www.statista.com/statistics/201714/growth-in-us-residential-electricity-prices-since-2000/

and then figure out what the hash will be at that time.

https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate



But you will have to make alot of assumptions and no-one except maybe the market makers can answer that question as there really is no proof whether the tail wags the dog or not.

good reading for you.

https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2019/08/05/ugh-this-is-what-bitcoins-hash-rate-means-and-why-it-matters/


Ohh yeah and if china seizes all corn mining then throw all that out the window.

I read Berserker series when I was a kid and still have some laying around. I Loved the short stories as well. Fred Sabarhagen is a great author, I highly recommend anything hes written.





Yah know, a days warning heads up wouldn't hurt none!



The Us dollar is not surprising in the least as thats about where it has historically been usued in finacial markets but what surprises me is the Low Euro and high Won.




LOl, not too soon.



Ahh, the days when I drove home on auto pilot.

I did that for decades and never got in an accident...truly amazing.

Drove myself to the hospital once and after doing some testing they asked who drove me there because my blood alcohol lever was .35, the doctor didn't believe me that i did, at least he didn't turn my ass in.

well, that too

What, you think those religious sand owners won't just re-nationalize the company and stiff anyone stupid enough to pay money for their worthless "stock"?

Again?

double, (by definition on cost basis)

BAKKT is a necessity for big money center banks e.g. goldman, morgan stanley, jpmorgan, ubs, barclays, etc to have an opportunity to gain access to BTC legitimately if they should choose to do so ... why would these banks want access to legitimate BTC? well these are the banks that have customers like major global corporations and central banks who they act as proxies in the market for (i.e. the global elites' puppets) .... imagine if BTC rapidly became a global currency and central banks did not even have a legal way to access the market? Governments are hand-tied in how they operate in the markets with the public coffers, or else they go to prison and for good reasons, however they do not like being shut out of the latest greatest game in town.

My money is on Rick to humbly ask Bob to sell some and Bob acquiescing if and when we would crawl to 11-13K.
That number (11K) seems to be a sell attractor. I also sold some around 11K in 2017 and perhaps 1.2K higher in 2019.
For newbs to have bitcoins someone has to sell.
It is just a theory...please don't throw any heavy objects my way  

I'm with you. My 'simplistic', and I mean that as 'very simplistic' lately at looking at BTC/Crypto is Whales in mining (with 2017 and 2018 mostly Bitmain L3+'s and S9's) getting out of HODL'ing

Bitcoin for the time being. The price always seems to do this at the beginning of the month (IMHO) and I think real-world issues of miners, not small, but not big enough at these prices,

having

to sell BTC/Crypto to pay for the lease/data hall/lifestyle (in that a lot of these guys have been self-employed last few years) etc. Indeed you could make a case a lot of miners, no matter the

size, are either doubling down and buying more ASICs or cashing out as it comes in. Miners are not in a HODL group anymore at least IMHO not this year.

Also just whales in general bleeding off some of the cream of

their massive BTC/Crypto Hoard....every time we get around $9k or $10k ...(hey I said it was simplistic). Again, have to keep the trophy wife happy and stay at the lifestyle you have

become accustomed too, when BTC price was high. (Sob! I miss those days ...soooooo much)

So I have 2 simplistic trains of thought about this:

1) The economy tanks into a recession and the price or BTC tanks as well, because whales/folks/etc sell for 'real-world issues' in that they bought or got into BTC/Crypto because they

had extra discretionary $$$ to spend because the economy was good. They would still like to accumulate BTC but hold off due to the turn in the economy (whenever)

2) The economy tanks into a recession and the price of BTC pumps, because whales now will HODL and folks/etc and institutions will pile into Bitcoin as a safe haven. This to use

Bitcoin as a 'virtual gold' and store of value.

As I said, this is a 'simplistic future' but I do think the economy will have to have a recession sometime with what is going on in the world and I guess a guy can flip a coin on which of

the above is true. Come to think of it a lot of my BTC/Crypto theories are 'simplistic' so I should probably just stick to flipping a coin anyway.

Again, like most things in BTC/Crypto make a choice.

Brad

not already, the question was for "after halving". NOW half or $4.85K or so.

$9.7K already for the most efficient miner? Wow... that's higher than what I currently thought.

Of course I don't think mining farms pay nowhere near to domestic 10c/kwh but, on the other hand, they DO NEED to also amortise the machines and overhead costs or go bankrupt in the long run.

if you use the most efficient miner (S17 pro) and you use an average cost of electricity in US at 10c/kwh, then with CURRENT difficulty, you would be breaking even (without amortizing the miner) at about 9.7K/btc. Obviously, difficulty is likely to be higher in 7 months.

All factors being equal... one could say double than now (ie: $6Kx2=$12K). But factors are not and won't be equal. Hashrate, electricity cost, efficiency of new miners, cost of those new miners, overhead business costs, etc etc.... and more importantly which part of supply/FREE FLOAT is determined by mining sales.

In the end it all reduces to supply and demand... and mining is just a part of that supply.

Any PANIC/capitulation or FOMO/euforia phase can make mining costs completely somewhat irrelevant and disjointed from actual market price, at least in the short/medium term.

In other words, hard to predict accurately and somewhat irrelevant for most purposes.

How much must one bitcoin cost after halving to cover mining costs? Let's say in USA.

Watched this a second time, I'm hooked. On point narrative between bitcoin, banking, debt, currency and government risk management.  Why only 3K views?? Serious bull juice, scary AF to consider.  
Simon Dixon: How Bitcoin Could Become A World Reserve Currency By 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oofk-i4uRM

You do this on purpose I swear. We worry you know.

At this stage.... I’m not able to find the bottom of a next glass anymore

Hope I get home safe .... cheers and good HODLnight !!!

Last Christmas with eggnog?  Ewwew, don't know why I said eggnog. Retail already feeling the crunch of economy, market or both.  

One more from twitter,
Trump gets booed and Colbert (late night show) paints Bitcoin as boring and uncool.  Bullish    Corporate asshat

https://twitter.com/WhiteRabbitBTC/status/1192831381581246464