Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9121. (Read 26716778 times)

Negative rates are the end game because it starts to make what is already true way too obvious for it to continue endlessly.    The ECB measures sound to me like a joke, its almost unbelievable how far they have swamped their debt markets to create false rates and the Swiss bank tried to tie themselves to the ECB actions and puked basically because its nonsense and cannot be followed by any rational economy.   It might work or make sense to the witches brew of Spanish, Italian debt married to German exporting industry but I cant see it working out long term unless they abolish individual government power and put in some pretty harsh forced changes.  Its just really unlikely, the Japanese scenario where all this QE began is amazing it continues.   The people and industry arent poor so I can only conclude the bank continues like a vampire feeding from the people, their scenario involves the massively ageing population and a big skew towards holding 'safe' debt even while it might decline in real value.


Inflation itself isnt value creating, the people with debt like it as they have less to repay.   Overall in an economy its destructive to the circulation of value required to facilitate trade.   It probably is best not to think longer term of a USD price because it wont be the same value scale as today, genuine value in BTC will come from genuine utility provision.   The price can get silly high but I think that has to match a full range of usage and ease of use.


Right now I have BTC as reacting to some negative trend shorter term, 9197 is the price it needs to confirm above on 4hr bars ideally to stay more positive.

There's probably no one in the country with more debt than Trump. Of course he wants negative rates to benefit himself, not the country. Negative rates are not sustainable.

Sure that could happen quickly, like in the next 10 years, but more likely it would take a lot longer, and maybe even 40 years or more.

I am not sure if many of us will be able to witness something happening in 40 years, but of course, if you are real young then you might prepare for such a scenario.

So, yeah, you are describing a scenario that could happen, but it is like the best case scenario and with any investment, we have to prepare for a lot to happen in-between even though it might be reasonable to keep such best case scenarios in mind.





Well, if bitcoin shoots up to astronomical numbers because all other currencies become irresponsible, then probably, there would be a need for reevaluation of values into bitcoin.

What about a scenario where some currencies try to compete with bitcoin by becoming more responsible? Wouldn't that delay bitcoin's domination and world reserve currency status?



Even though I am prepared for considerable exponential scenarios, I also am prepared for much more mediocre BTC performance too.

So right now, .2BTC is only going to get you a bit less than $2k in value.  In 13 years we will have had 4 more halvenings, so minimally we could maybe plan for doubling four times which would cause $2k to become $4k, $8k, $16k, $32k.  But we have to prepare for both better and worser scenarios too.. I frequently project out 6% per year in order to be really conservative and then the rest is just icing on the cake if we end up over performing, but maybe I don't plan enough for how richie I am going to end up being?   

I just get a bit worried about counting my chickens before my eggs are hatched, but I do keep in mind that there are potential chickens in there.




I doubt that governments are as lost as you are making them out to be.  Power does not just give up, there is going to be transitionings, and surely some of the no coiner hold outs might suffer a bit more, but there are going to be plenty of rich coming over to the bitcoin side, and they are not just going to roll over in terms of attempting to get their way and to influence various systems that can be done to keep various salvageable aspects (to the extent that there are any) of current modern society.

Hey, are you aware of any other countries that have Chuck Norris as their presidential advisor? I don't think so.

I also don't believe we can live in a world where there is fiat with little to no inflation and Bitcoin. There will be to much pressure for people to store their wealth in Bitcoin, because fiat CAN be inflated. Therefore the only possible world we can live in is a world where fiat is inflated and there is Bitcoin, thus Bitcoin will only grow larger and larger over time because fiat will be inflated.

Thats because Gold can't be used as money (they tried and it ultimately didnt work), Bitcoin can. Gold will never be a threat to Fiat, Bitcoin is a direct treat to Fiat.

I can send Bitcoin to anyone in the world immediately, Gold cannot replicate that, ever. Just my opinion.

It didn't happen with gold, it won't happen with BTC.   Governments might buy a chunk of BTC, but they won't create out of control fiat inflation to do so.

I truly believe we will reach a point where ALL governments in the world will be printing off endless amounts of fiat in order to buy as much Bitcoin.......but guess what? at that point we will all know that Fiat is 100% dead (dead as in it will be a never ending hyper inflation, and all of the people of the world will finally realize that Fiat is just something that loses value, while Bitcoin will just gain value as more fiat is printed) and no one will be selling their Bitcoin for Fiat, it would be beyond stupid because the Bitcoin you sell for Fiat, might lost half of its value the next day if the government decided to print (Digitally print) off trillions more, which will push Bitcoin up to millions of dollars (5-50 million dollars). Perhaps A zillion dollar marketcap, and no im not saying this because I am delusional, I just think Bitcoin is the black hole and governments will end up printing off trillions upon trillions to get more Bitcoin, but people are not going to convert back, and of course at this point being a millionaire wont be anything special.

I would say at this point, if you hold at least .2 Bitcoin for the rest of your life, you will be living an easy life. Keep in mind to, when this does go down, governments useless fiat wont be able to pay anyone to go pursue people who have Bitcoin. No police officer, or government worker is going to want to get paid in fiat, they will want Bitcoin, which the government wont have enough of to even hold things together let alone go after Bitcoin HODLers (Arrest, confiscate, etc).

"They" are the banks.
Customers still don't get paid money from banks for loans and savings.
This is the outcome of having too much power.
Bitcoin was a logical consequence of this kind of distress. The pendulum still swings, but it started to change direction in 2009 and it's gaining momentum.

Comforting lies are easy to swallow...

October ends in a day and a half and it doesn't look like we are going to reach $16k any time soon. (by soon I mean in a week) Maybe it will be different in November. We may try 8k one more time. Hopefully this will be the last time.

Yeah.. we are all retarded, and you are the smartest person (or would it be only smart person) in the whole wide world...

 

   



   (I am laughing so hard because I am kind-a retarded)

Well, surely game theory suggests that countries will begin to do this at some point.  It is just a matter of when and likely to be on the downlow.

Secretly buying up as many bitcoin as feasible and buying ALL of the bitcoin are two vastly differing scenarios.


Of course.  Game theory suggests this is quite likely to happen.  It's just a matter of when (and likely also a matter of bitcoin not breaking).


Agreed.  All likely to happen.


Oh yeah, for sure.  We are all likely way the fuck early to the game and we have been accumulating at relatively low prices, and that is part of the reason why there is NO real need for any of us to engage in irresponsible behavior by attempting to act too greedy and to put our own lil selfies in financial difficulties because we have over-leveraged into bitcoin. 

In other words, bitcoin seems to remain to be such an asymmetrical bet that none of us have to kill our lil selfies in the way that we invest in order to profit stupendously on a personal level from our having had invested in bitcoin and continue to invest in bitcoin at whatever level is feasible and prudent for ourselves.  In other words, mere normal, prudent and perhaps slightly aggressive (without gambling too much) levels of investment into bitcoin will likely pay off with considerable riches.


No argument or elaboration from me there, except just acknowledging:  Well said.   

I can not believe I am reading this retardation, Elwar was engaging in SATIRE you fucking dorks


jesus

I agree with this but on the flip side, if Governments dont buy up Bitcoin then they can end up severely behind if other countries decided to do so.

All it will take is one country to decide that they are going to buy up all the bitcoin they possibly can, and just inflate their own currency to no end to accumulate Bitcoin. This will force other countries to do the same. Now the first country to do it will be holding a lot of Bitcoin which will be a real threat to any other country who isn't accumulating Bitcoin. This first country could also then sell its Bitcoin to the other countries for their currency and could potentially enrich themselves by holding both Bitcoin and other fiat at a gain.

This is why you must hold on for dear life, pat yourself on the back that you are investing in this perceived "risky" asset when the rest of the world is scared to do so. We are so lucky, Bitcoin is the endgame for all value, it is the black hole; fiat currencies have no chance against it and fiat will only be bitcoin rocket fuel. The more fiat that gets printed, the higher Bitcoin will continue to go.

... even if they bought up 'all' the coins, the commies would then lose the keys, for sure.

Incompetence and corruption are the inevitable fruits of communism/socialism's maligned incentives. Anyone left holding bitcoins would be enriched by every commie fuck-up ever after ... sounds good to me.

Find someone that you can trust to watch your house and your stuff, and travel. 

It is not good to be bored, especially when you have enough money to get by and to live a better lifestyle through travel.

Take out a little bitcoin every few months at a time and travel, live it up, enjoy yourself and meet some nice young girls. hahahahaha

Maybe budget about 3 trips per year would be enough for you, since you seem to be a bit of a homebody.  Nojudgement and nohomo.      Of course, if you are not sure about the whole travel thingie-ma-jiggie, just plan one to happen within the next 6-9 months, and then use that as a reference point for future planning, and then maybe 2-3 for the next 6-12 months, and then once you get a few trips under your belt, you might even be able to accomplish more than 3 per year.  Should take care of a decent amount of any bordom and also make sure that you spend your bitcoin in your old age rather than taking them to your grave.... no death wishing.   

Governments attempting to buy all of the bitcoins remains the wetdream for anyone holding bitcoins.

There is no way that they can buy all of the bitcoins, and it would just cause the BTC price to go up exponentially and in an out of control manner.

When I have been reading about the supposed fears of the government buying all of the bitcoin as some kind of supposed meaningful threat vector, I just consider it as a kind of weak attempt at reverse psychology. 

Governments are not going to buy anything that they can reasonably attempt to steal from us.  So in that regard, each of us has a responsibility to take meaningful attempts at protecting both privacy and fungibility so that they do not rob us from our bitcoins in any kind of meaningful or systematic way

China Launches Blockchain Push Growing Country’s Worrying Influence Over Cryptocurrency
Posted by Justin Szilard | Oct 29, 2019 | News |     

China Launches Blockchain Push Growing Country’s Worrying Influence Over Cryptocurrency
China has embarked on a pro-blockchain push and is making moves towards creating state sanctioned cryptocurrency and blockchain solutions a reality in the country.

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a speech about wanting to invest more into blockchain and cryptocurrency technology. The Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress then backed this speech with a new law that while not mentioning cryptocurrency directly, “encourages and supports the research and application of the science and technology in cryptography and protects the intellectual property rights in cryptography”.


Boxmining
@boxmining
Well its official. China Announces digital currency "DECP" https://youtu.be/MoSv7bc9QjE  https://twitter.com/blockjournal/status/1188797999901597697 …

 B🎃🎃Tube ‎@YouTube

Block Journal
@blockjournal
🇨🇳 BREAKING: China to launch digital currency “DCEP”

According to this video (to be confirmed), Chinese Central Bank will launch digital currency called DCEP. To be tested and onboarded with commercial banks first.

More on this story soon.

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7:27 PM - Oct 28, 2019
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Additionally, the Chinese Communist Party’s Propaganda Office also recently implemented “The Heart of the Chain” so party members can record their pledge to the communist party on the blockchain as an ‘”initial heart”. Further, Twitter rumors show that Chinese officials announced their state cryptocurrency, DCEP, which has been in the works for years.
Centralizing cryptocurrency around China

Cryptocurrency is not new to China as the country has had a flurry of activity that they cracked down on during the 2017 price surge, however recent developments may further centralize the industry around the country. The announcement of Facebook’s Libra reportedly accelerated China’s focus on developing its own cryptocurrency. However, the government wants to ensure that their state sanctioned cryptocurrency only has “controllable anonymity” and that the state can see whatever it wants to see relative to a person’s transactions. It can be argued that a state cryptocurrency in China would even allow less privacy than current methods since Chinese can only “officially” monitor money flowing through the banking system and have to work with private companies to monitor mobile payments that never leave apps such as Alipay and WeChat Pay. Cryptocurrency created by the Chinese government would most likely ensure that the government can easily view the history of as many addresses as possible and link them to a personal identity.

Additionally, there is growing risk in even the open-source cryptocurrency sector, especially for Bitcoin, that growing mining centralization within China may risk the security of the network due to potential geopolitical actions. Half of Bitcoin’s mining hashrate comes from just 4 mining pools and “[a]s of June 2018, over 80% of Bitcoin mining is performed by six mining pools, and five of those six pools are managed by individuals or organizations located in China”, according to research from Princeton University and Florida International University. This heavy centralization of critical network infrastructure within a single and oftentimes hostile jurisdiction, combined with the fact that Bitcoin has a low difficulty adjustment at every 2,016 blocks, can cause further disruptions to the chain beyond just a lower hashrate that increases security vulnerabilities. As recently seen in the Bitcoin Cash mining issue, the network swung from producing blocks too rapidly to going hours without producing a single block.

Dash mitigates centralization risks

While still claiming a majority of its mining infrastructure within the country, Dash may be more resistant to the heavy influence China has on cryptocurrency than many competitors. Dash employs both miners and masternodes to secure the network thanks to ChainLocks, which leverages the masternode network to lock in the first seen block on the network, preventing it from being reversed, even in the event of an attempted 51% mining attack. Additionally, Dash’s infrastructure is spread more evenly around the world, with a slight majority of mining power in China while the large majority of masternodes, while owned and operated from all over the world, hosted in western Europe and North America. This significantly reduces the risk of a single jurisdiction, or a collection of allied powers, temporarily disrupting the network by compelling mining pool operators or masternode hosting providers to act against their best interests. Finally, Dash’s Dark Gravity Wave adjusts the mining difficulty every block, better ensuring that Dash is less vulnerable to disruption from rapid changes in hashrate, and therefore the various geopolitical occurrences that may lead to hashrate changes.

https://dashnews.org/china-launches-blockchain-push-growing-countrys-worrying-influence-over-cryptocurrency/

I literally sided' ed my house and new windows (last 3 sides) and enclosed my porch on a hedge from, what I see, of the next recession! (20% recession...I expect 40%

downturn this next recession). Out of my Traditional investments thru broker and retirement stuff, as a pre-emptive hedge on this view.

I have heard that instead of the 2-7 year recovery from past recession experts are now saying 7-12 years. So I paid for the first 1/2 at the last ATH on my traditional

investments and stocks etc and I'll pay the rest as it is done this week on this week's ATH of traditional investments and be all caught up, at ATH withdrawals on this.

On the other hand in full HODL mode on Bitcoin Hoard, this is my frigging HARD as a 40% recession viewpoint, to take some cream off the top.

So no debts, newer truck *72k miles*, the house is done as far as last major projects go, and paid off also. I'm as prepared as I can expect today.

Big ASIC mining at home done a while back, Big Data Hall ASIC mining done this year, hmmmm...

Now, what the hell am I gonna do for coping mechanisms? Start canning goods and build a bunker?

hmmmm......

it's quiet,... it's too quiet....(freaking myself out here...got to where I need to be....need some new goals I guess, besides HODL mode...)

But anyway, we will see, but again, I think we are gonna be in for a doozy of a recession, about 40% downturn at least, thus my ducks are in a row

but how about you?

Last time I was this bored...I decided to put up the old bbs/game server and pay $75 in electric for the fun of such again...and instead drifted into a

2013 KNC ASIC Jupiter BTC Miner instead. Now if I can just pull something out of my 'boredom' hat again! (That is damn unlikely).

Anyway, calling it a win and moving on to something else..not sure what...but Trump Administration and such has put me at the points above and

solidified full HODL mode on Bitcoin Hoard. So we will see I guess.

"The needs must, when the Devil drives....."

Brad