I still think that we are still in a kind of late 2015 to early 2016 period... still waiting for the May 2016 breakout.
We already had our October/November 2015 break out, and that was when we broke up to $13,880. Of course, no two breakouts or chart patterns are going to look alike, but still Majormax, you should at least be attempting to compare the correct areas of the fractal. AmiNOTrite?
Yes absolutely... Please show me which are the correct areas on that particular chart.
Unless I read your post incorrectly, I was only trying to suggest that your earlier comment seemed to have been suggesting that we are in an August 2017-like scenario currently. So, I thought that was a wrong assumption. Again, maybe I misunderstood your earlier post, but that was why I was trying to suggest that it seems that we are still in early 2016 - and I am not even trying to suggest where we go from here... except maybe up in the next few years ... without any real presumption about whether more correction might happen from where we are right now.
Not Aug'17 scenario, but Feb '18, the shape of a decline from a peak. I am only responding to the chart that was posted. The analysis (not mine) was apparently that the action of the last 6 months was comparable to some other period (fractal) and suggestion was that it portended a rise. Well, all I could see from that chart was a similarity (in chart shape, which is what a fractal is) , between the last 6 months and Aug 2017 to Feb 2018. I don't really understand the poster's assertion.
On another point, the 60-85% decline from a parabolic peak does not need to be from an ATH. The danger I was going on and on about in Jun and ever since, was that a parabolic move failed at 13500 approx. That is nearly always bad news, holding price back for longer in a bull market , or leading to the next downphase in a bear market.
On balance I still believe we are in a longer bull phase, but it is unwise to entirely dismiss alternative scenarios (or call them 'impossible'). The chart has issued this warning. It would be more positive if the present price of ~8k had been arrived at by a steady rise May thru October, rather than the too-fast failed attempt at 14k. As it is , the chart now shows a distinct falling trend from July. That is merely observation.
I doubt that either of us are going to assert that any scenario is impossible, the various scenarios just become a matter of probability and also the extent to which we see the rise from $4,200 to $13,880 as a kind of failure to break out or as a break out that just needs some time to consolidate before moving further up. Even though, to me, you seem more inclined to recognize some kind of failure to break out, I consider the matter to be a kind of unexpected equity cushion that has been created, and likely some difficulties to return all the way back to $4,200 break out point which is a kind of relief in my thinking to have so much cushion between our current price and the $4,200 and below territory in which we were floating prior to April 1.
Yeah, we can talk about preferences that bitcoin would have moved more slowly and gradually up to $8k, like you said, but that is way too fucking boring for bitcoin. She does not work like that. She works, partly, by engaging in exaggerated price moves that no one expected, and she does it because she can. And, for that reason, no one really has any meaningful ability to predict what she is going to do next, except for knowing that if we have enough capital, then we can attempt to push her beyond expectations (and perhaps that does not always work, but some whales are going to make some efforts in that direction and try to see if they can get their momentum to stick and to either make a profit on the way up or make a profit on the way down).
Probably you and I are not saying anything too much different from each other, except that you seem to want to emphasize down, and I continue to want to remain hopeful about any up that might occur. Each of us believes that we are more correct than the other in how we describe bitcoin price dynamics, and in the end, we are saying very similar things with somewhat disparate emphases.
Charts can be dismissed as so much claptrap of course, but if we are going to analyse them, may as well do it properly.
In the end, if anyone doesn't like the conclusion of chart analysis, they can say these things don't apply to BTC. Just pick a number out of the air.
I agree. Fuck the charts, unless they say something that I like.