Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9282. (Read 26713355 times)

I was thinking a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would dilute the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?

Try to look at it another way:

You are long 10 BTC. You short sell 1.

BTC goes down. You close the short and 10% of your virtual losses on the long are recovered.

Then, EITHER

- BTC goes back up. When it gets back where you started, you still have the (real) profit made on the short.

OR

- BTC goes down some more. You're losing, but you're losing somewhat less. You have more margin - whether you want to risk some more, or you're just glad your liquidation is that little bit further away.

That's how I have used my contrarian positions until today, and I am glad I did.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

If you are trading with linear assets there's no other other way to sum all of your positions and think about only as a SUM. the worst think yopu can think is where you bought some corn and you have to sell it above that level to gain.

I strongly disagree with d_eddie.
Even in highly volatile environment Mark To market is the best way to think of your trading position, because MtM has to do with the current price, so it has to do with the future movements.
If you think on yor P&L, you think where you traded the corn in the Past. Very dangerous.
When you trade you have to think only where you are headed to, not where you have been: is't like driving looking into the rearview mirror to decide where the road is headed....



This is actually 100% rational. HODLing is the best strategy to gain from Bitcoin!

EDIT: I just realised I replied to JJG. I don't know if I am ready for a wall of text!

No, this is incorrect.  You have to remember a lot of these traders only care about growing their $USD position for their company or shareholders or whatever.  So if you hedge a range and lose 10% while gaining 50%, then you had a significant increase to your USD position.  In their mind, better to be mostly right & a little wrong rather than completely right or wrong.

Also, there are options vessels with call/put premiums that can further mitigate the risk of a particular position.  Not everyone just buys and hodl's. 

Funny enough though, I'm one that has gone from "day trading" all this to large multi month swings / simply hodling (due to time constraints).  So I only recommend these strategies for people who have a lot of time to manage the entries and exits.

No need to be humble, since you probably know better than I.

In support of my stance:

- Mark to Market is a worse metric when the asset has strong volatility or is subject to the whim of sentiment. Which is the case for bitcoin.

- I let my long live because she will get back up there eventually! This might not be 100% rational, all right  

Of course, I don't short bitcoin, but I do sell small amounts of BTC on the way up.   It seems to me that shorting can be employed merely to amplify the system that I already employ; however, such amplification is not so great as to overwhelm the longs including either not using stops, or putting the stops out so far as to have less chances of being manipulated out of the position.

Accordingly, the longs might be something like 10 bitcoin, but the shorts would be less than 2 bitcoins and perhaps even frequently less than 1 bitcoin.  In other words, the shorts are just a small fraction of the longs, and end up providing a kind of insurance against the longs, even while, overall, it would be more profitable for the BTC price to go up, rather than down.   

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

I made a joke in Dutch.  I am excessively proud of this accomplishment.  

You are right, well, it is a system that can be safe if it is perfected with the experience, every time it is successful in trade it is because another lost the trade that he did, it is like trading with the money of others, since Everything is valid from the point of view of market speculation.

What do I think? Delete the Ripple.

Believe me I know how it works and having long and short positions doesn't help you with this, as the only way at looking it is doing all the sums and think like you have only one position.

Only way to decide to keep open a position is current Mark to Market, not inception or initial trade level.
 So I humbly disagree on this specific approach.

I can see the nuances of the English language being a problem. Will keep that in mind as I fuck around on this forum.

It's just a way to manage consolidation areas and then play the breakout.  Most of these guys trade with leverage.  So a break out can result in a 10X return for a little risk.  Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is. 

This system can and does pay off. A couple ways it can:

- No need to close both positions at the same time! You could taper the losing one or close it abruptly if you're sure of the trend.

- Different size/different leverage for the two positions.

EDIT As an actual example, I have a long position still suffering. Alive, but not kicking. I opened a short and scalped it down, cashing out little bits and refreshing the short when the price bounced up. So my losses on the long are mitigated. In this case the short is smaller than the long, but it hasn't been like this every time.


You could sell all your coins, so you'd stop wasting your time here.

Hm, on second though what if you become like r0ach and end up wasting even more time? As as added insult, you'd probably feel very very bad as a noob nocoiner.

Summing up, I have to admit I have no useful rehab suggestions. Sorry.

Indeed that strategy has no meaning.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short a bitcoin I am flat.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short 2 bitcoin I am short 1 bitcoin (so why getting long a bitcoin in the first place?)
If I buy a bitcoin and then I shott  10 bitcoin I am short 9 bitcoin.... (again..)

This reasoning could be very different if there were options available to trade. But this is not the case.
I dismiss that video as bullshit.

Recovery mode
Time to stabilize and pump
Bodypump less #NOW!!!

Time to sweat!!!!

I surmise that he is a human emulating a neural network-based merit farming bot. He strings words together based on their likelihood of earning a merit, randomly adding and removing words here and there dependent on incoming data. Who knows, I might merit him someday. He's already sent me 2 so I can't be too hard on him. Only 68 to go before he gets that big Bitvest sig campaign promotion.

'Fake it 'til you make it'? Say it ain't so, Gracie.

Color me astonished. Not.

really? may you care to explain, please?

EDIT: this WO thread is a time eater for sure! Damn!  

EDIT2: is rehab possible?

One day he will achieve to have a team.... helping out....