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By "all in" I mean all saved fiat. I own an appartment and a car. With my current profit from Bitcoin, I have the same amount that I will obtain from my salary for the next 20 years until I retire. And I usually save 2/3 of my salary which I convert immediately into bitcoins. Am I at the "fuck you" zone? Not yet, as I have to ensure my retirement. But in the 30-40K price range I will have enough to do it at least in my country, and live happily in a nice beach villa for the rest of my life. That is why I said this is an important level to me. On the other hand, I prefer to wait for the price which I believe is achievable in my lifetime. 40K is a too low and sure target, 120K is way more chalenging but satisfying. So I have 2 plans which depend on my needs in real life. If I am convinced that 40K is the top of the next bull run before a long and nasty bear year(s), I may be tempted to sell most of my stash. But if I am not sure, I will spend only 10-20% at that price range and continue to sell up to 120K. I may use some scheme like 10, 20, 30, 40% on every 50% (or 75%) rise of the price. It is based on your suggestions, which I tweaked a bit, so the overall loss is smaller compared to selling all at 120K. It saves more bitcoins for the bigger prices! My final sell would be at 120K. Plus, anything that I buy from now on untill I start to cash out, I will keep for the time when we finally reach the moon. Will it be 500K, 1mil, etc. I don't know yet. Time will tell.
What you are planning makes sense, and almost no matter what it seems difficult to really have any meaningful sense regarding whether any blow off top would be at previous ATH (path) x2, x6 or x10 or some other amount, so I am unsure about how prudent it would be to make vastly differing plans based on your anticipation of your then feelings about whether a blow off top has been reached.
Another dynamic that I can sense that you are toying with is to consider to be able to move some of the value that you have in BTC to some other locked in and assured asset, in order to preserve your BTC profits, and I am kind of torn about the necessity to act on those kinds of motivations, even though I understand that so many people have those kinds of motivations - so none of us can really step into the comfort level of other people.
Part of my thinking comes from the Morpheus meme that you might not need to hedge so much into other investments because merely keeping some value in bitcoin will be sustaining enough based on all available options and even while understanding that BTC corrections might still be violent, BTC is still likely to sufficiently hold enough value that there is no real rush to employ rash strategies in terms of cashing out your holdings.
This morpheus meme:
I think it is perfectly normal to have 2 plans. We all know that Bitcoin will reach 100K or more. The only unknown variable now is exactly how long this will take. The historical pattern says end of 2021 or early 2022. But nobody can be sure about that. We may need another halving to occur i.e. after 2024, or even more. In that case there will be many dissapointments and missed opportunites to become rich. And man's heart can't endure forever such bad things. Considering however, that I continue to buy in all these years, I may reach my goal in terms of fiat for prices around 50K. I don't want this to happen, and I don't think it will happen, but it is theoretically possible that we are stuck at levels 20K-50K for a prolonged period of time.
Let's say I have 16
BTC (they could have been much more, but in 2015 I didn't even suspect that Bitcoin price could go much higher than $200 so soon). So the 1st super duper bearish plan (based on my personal 10x profit) is:
2,00 for $36 000
2,00 for $40 000
4,35 for $44 000
4,15 for $46 000
3,50 for $48 000
Total: $700 000. If I can buy more coins before 36K, I will keep them for 100K. And if the year is 2025 or later, I will have may be 3-4 or more coins. Considering my expenses are $5K per year and that I can build a luxury house for 200K, this amount should be enough even if I quadruple the monthly expenses. ( I am speaking for an early retirement 10 years instead of 20 from now.)
But what I am hoping for is selling based on the follwing pattern until 2022 (plus all bitcoins bought before my 1st selling point, kept for later moons above 200K). It is a tweaked version of your plan, which you gave to mindrust some time ago. It is based on the principle 10, 20, 30, 40% sells after each 50% increase. The last sell could be distributed between 120K and 150K.
Sell Price BTC balance PfolioBeforeValue BTCSell Amt PfolioAfterValue soldValue soldTotal
$40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 0.00000000 $640,000 $0.00 $0.00
$40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 1.60000000 $576,000 $64,000 $64,000
$60,000 14.40000000 $864,000 3.20000000 $672,000 $192,000 $256,000
$90,000 11.20000000 $1,008,000 4.80000000 $576,000 $432,000 $688,000
$135,000 6.40000000 $864,000 6.40000000 $0 $864,000 $1,552,000
Then I can build a beach villa which I could use or lend. And one day if I am sick of it, I surely will be able to sell it 2-3 times higher, so the initial cash out at 40K-60K won't be lost.
P.S. I know this looks like hopium especially to the daily traders, but this increase is only 10x from 14K this year. There were much bigger increases even for one year, not to mention for 3 years. The only question is when 100K, not if!
