Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9445. (Read 26709522 times)

legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
I am a BTC believer. I am a HODLer.

Sometimes, however, the serpent of doubt slithers through my soul. This halving might be different from the others. What we know is that halvings are going to be more and more irrelevant as the supply decreases. What we don't know is the rate of increase of the irrelevance. In order to estimate possible halving effects, we can use a priori data and contingent data.

A priori data: current level of supply.

Contingent data: state of adoption, price, market sentiment, etc.

Just for a rough estimate, assuming the price at the halving is in the same ballpark as today:
 
DateReward (BTC) Price (USD/BTC) Reward (USD)
2012.11.28  50BTC12.35617.50 $
2016.07.0925BTC65016.250 k$
2020.05.XX12.5BTC10500131.250 k$

I've been looking at this table and pondering for a while, but the serpent isn't dead, not yet at least. Any food for thought? I'm still staying strong anyway, we all know why.

I am a BTC believer. I am a HODLer.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

An asset that has a 10% guaranteed loss every year then.....

Nope.

I take it you don't own a car  Wink
legendary
Activity: 3220
Merit: 2334
I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

An asset that has a 10% guaranteed loss every year then.....

Nope.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265

Can't have a boat like that and not have a helicopter...



I like jets better.

I still insist on a 40ft sailboat.

+1

This one is on my list if BTC brings me big profits...

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
I have seen some comments of yachts.

When you have a boat there are only two happy days:

- The day you buy it and the day you sell it. Wink



Look at this picture and tell me you don't want it  Grin

Maintenance costs on a 100m ($200M) super yacht aren't that bad

Costs per year
$4,000,000 to $15,000,000 on maintenance
$2,000,000 on crew (30 crew supplement)
$350,000 dockage
$300,000 on provisioning (food/drinks/wine cellar/etc.)
$240,000 insurance
$36,000 on navigation, TV, etc.

Other costs
$1.1 million on refits every few years


Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

You say that maintenance is not expensive  Cheesy, I prefer not to think about the amount of BTC you have. Cool

My stack is significant... but won't let me buy a ship like that .... yet Tongue
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino


Who's on which button here ??

Doing both, man. Waited 6 months to finally upgrade my phone Cheesy
I knew the 11 was out soon so didn’t want to upgrade to the X & be stuck with it for 2 years Wink

Edit - Won’t let me pre order until 13th Sept  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>


JJG > After each session, he has to buy a new keyboard, in a few hours he is online again. Cool
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
Where is that young colored boy JayJuanGee and his informative posts about financial markets.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
SatoshiLabs Rolls Out Bitcoin-Only Firmware for Trezor Wallets

Quote
SatoshiLabs, the Prague-based manufacturer of hardware cryptocurrency wallets Trezor, released a beta version of its new firmware that supports Bitcoin (BTC) exclusively.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/satoshilabs-rolls-out-bitcoin-only-firmware-for-trezor-wallets

https://blog.trezor.io/sources-say-orange-coin-good-new-bitcoin-only-firmware-now-available-47be0b611a4d

Perfect, a wallet just for BTCTC
legendary
Activity: 3276
Merit: 2442

Can't have a boat like that and not have a helicopter...



I like jets better.

I still insist on a 40ft sailboat.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
I have seen some comments of yachts.

When you have a boat there are only two happy days:

- The day you buy it and the day you sell it. Wink



Look at this picture and tell me you don't want it  Grin

Maintenance costs on a 100m ($200M) super yacht aren't that bad

Costs per year
$4,000,000 to $15,000,000 on maintenance
$2,000,000 on crew (30 crew supplement)
$350,000 dockage
$300,000 on provisioning (food/drinks/wine cellar/etc.)
$240,000 insurance
$36,000 on navigation, TV, etc.

Other costs
$1.1 million on refits every few years


Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

You say that maintenance is not expensive  Cheesy, I prefer not to think about the amount of BTC you have. Cool
legendary
Activity: 1795
Merit: 1208
This is not OK.
I have seen some comments of yachts.

When you have a boat there are only two happy days:

- The day you buy it and the day you sell it. Wink



Look at this picture and tell me you don't want it  Grin

Maintenance costs on a 100m ($200M) super yacht aren't that bad

Costs per year
$4,000,000 to $15,000,000 on maintenance
$2,000,000 on crew (30 crew supplement)
$350,000 dockage
$300,000 on provisioning (food/drinks/wine cellar/etc.)
$240,000 insurance
$36,000 on navigation, TV, etc.

Other costs
$1.1 million on refits every few years


Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink

Can't have a boat like that and not have a helicopter...
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 4393
Be a bank
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
I have seen some comments of yachts.

When you have a boat there are only two happy days:

- The day you buy it and the day you sell it. Wink



Look at this picture and tell me you don't want it  Grin

Maintenance costs on a 100m ($200M) super yacht aren't that bad

Costs per year
$4,000,000 to $15,000,000 on maintenance
$2,000,000 on crew (30 crew supplement)
$350,000 dockage
$300,000 on provisioning (food/drinks/wine cellar/etc.)
$240,000 insurance
$36,000 on navigation, TV, etc.

Other costs
$1.1 million on refits every few years


Totaling at something like $7M to $20M a year ....

So it's not as bad as you think....  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13618
BTC + Crossfit, living life.


Who's on which button here ??
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13618
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
~Snip~

+1
Holy Moly Stash management 101

Tweak it a little bit JSRAW?  Something like that might work for you?  Perhaps?

Yeah, it could, for sell plans everyone needs their tweaking according to their target, situations, etc. Timing of price increment in each stage is crucial, though. Unfortunately, no one can predict this scenario or downtrend, so I am not rigid with my sell stage.

Before, I start to comment, let's remember, again, that I was responding to some of the goals that mindrust had presented, including that he was planning to cash out everything at $100k, so the parameters of his thinking was different from yours,  even though some variation of that same cashing out projection could still work for you, JSRAW, with some tweaking... and maybe even you would not start cashing out until after $150k or whatever is comfortable for your situation...  
~Edited ~

Sir, Yes, sir, I remember. And your calculation was spot on, in the context of mindrust and I agree with almost everything which you mentioned in your reply to me.

I have okay stash despite entering very late into BTC or crypto in general (Aug, 2017). Luckily I benefited from the last bull run, and this helped me to acquire more corns religiously in the bearish trend, meanwhile my 50%-80% monthly salary comes in BTC too, which i hardly cash out. So I divided my stash into 2 small stashes according to my current needs.

Yes.  Surely, earning that percentage of your income in BTC can require a certain amount of cashing out on a regular basis, unless you are targeting that level of accumulation, which I usually tell regular peeps that they should start out by accumulating 1% to 10% of their total investment portfolio in BTC; however, if BTC appreciates, then I would not necessarily recommend reallocation unless the person really does not have any back-up investments.

Surely, these days some people are thinking differently in terms of whether they should have some traditional investments, and it could be a bit of a different story if you have already gotten locked into some of them or whether they are fluid investments, or if there are penalties for moving them around.

I am also not opposed to starting out by investing fairly heavily in one investment, especially when you are younger, and then to branch out after you have already decently established yourself in the investment, which could be quite applicable to a bitcoin investment.



1. The first stash is for the next bull run, and I can follow a more or less similar strategy which you suggested but with slightly different sell zone and % with some tweaks. I can even fancy my early retirement with this BTC stash, but retirement in age of 32-35 doesn't suit me, which I have mentioned a couple of times.

Fair enough.  I will speculate that if you have 10x or 100x the amount of your most bullish expectations then you might consider a kind of retirement or change of activities, but who knows.  I think that levels of rich can change perceptions, but we cannot really count on such things happening. 

By the way, probably, currently my level of rich is only about 2x to 3x of my most bullish of expectations from a few years ago, so I am not quite in the stage of life changing levels of richness, but I do feel quite good about where I am at.  On the other hand, if bitcoin does another considerable exponential growth, then that is going to change matters for me in terms of actual action.  I am o.k. it if does or if it does not, and either way, I am expecting to have some decent fun in the coming years.

But if it does go shooting up, then surely I am going to have to up my game, and maybe even rethink some of my activities to a kind of higher level, which is not a bad problem to have.. but "the next one" is still not a bird in the hand, and it remains only a theory or a possibility at this point.

2. Second is Long Term Aka retirement Stash, which fixed for a minimum 15-20 Years or more and I strictly want to maintain this percentage with at least 40% of my total holding due to my future plans, and it doesn't include any hooker,blow or any material thingy etc. shout out to gang : Not a party pooper though. Grin

hookers, lambos, blows, yachts and other luxury items are just symbols or fun expressions.  Of course, there is going to be variation.  You party poop.


With my second stash, I am hoping that BTC is not going to lose its value in the next 15-20 years, but in case it happens, then I am going to act accordingly and look for another option ofcourse. speaking of another options i do have 6-8% of shitcoins in my portfolio though Grin. 0 Bcash.

Good to have other possible plans, just in case BTC is not worth more in the future.  That's for sure.  Regarding your bcash stash, sorry for your loss.

BTC is first investment of my life but its not the last.

Yes.  You may need to diversify, at some point, but it might not be a problem for you to continue to build in BTC,and then find a point of comfort for diversification, and of course, as long as BTC goes up then you will be in a better and better position to figure out what kind of diversification works for your own comfort level.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

They look nice. If I started such collection, I would be accused of collecting shiny objects.


Collecting shiny objects?  Say it ain't so...

 Smiley


Just in case the shiny objects are traceable, I am going to preserve my opsec.   Tongue Tongue
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