You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)
Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?
A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.
- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia Noted: Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs. Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication) on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.
Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?
Perhaps, but likely only in respect to closely-related topics.
Q: Do you believe the insiders (e.g., Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, et al) who stated back in 2008 the world was close to a complete and total financial meltdown?
Q: What changes enacted since then to stave off the possibility of further such events have actually made progress towards that objective?
1. Well they need to justify Troubled Asset Relief Program, and the various Quantative Easing programs. Reality is we will never know because we don’t get to run alternative simulations.
2. There are a ton of changes that have been made to the financial system since, such as the amount of margin banks are required to hold and reducing lending against toxic instruments. That lending now tends to come from shadow banking institutions and hedge funds.
Whether pushing the toxic crap out to hedge funds helps the stability of global financial system remains to be seen. Either way you can be assured the world’s governments would just bail the banks out again. The precedent has already been set.
In short, there is no particular reason to think the next financial crisis will tip over the apple cart.