Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.
To me it looks like this:
Bitcoin price: participants
Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.
Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).
Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt
Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments
Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.
Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)
Above 300k: Central banks and governments.
I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).
TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.
Something seems to be missing in your formula and your thought process, Biodom, even though my response to the matter is not exactly clarifying matters.
But, what I am trying to ask is whether you really believe that, currently, bitcoin has anything beyond 1% in adoption?
Of course, most of us should understand that the world is much more complex than mere individuals, like you point out categories of institutional behavior too, but we don't just go from individuals to various sized institutions leading up to hedge funds and governments without also having various levels of complexities and competition and confusion within entities, too.
They do not all of a sudden go from being ignorant about bitcoin to becoming enlightened, and even within the BTC HODLers there are various levels of appreciation about bitcoin, including doubts that individuals have including maybe that some people will continue to conclude that they are smarter than the others by getting out early, and planning to buy back lower, which may or may not work for them.
In other words, all of this new adoption is happening simultaneously and at a variety of levels of knowledge and understanding, and enlightenment does not just suddenly happen. The complexity of feelings, market movements, misinformation and FUD and snake oil salesmen is going to lead to a snowballing process that feeds on each other, but it is not linear nor clear, while at the same time people and institutions are going to bet on bitcoin and also bet against it through the whole process of increasing and increasing adoption of bitcoin while snake oil products continue to exist too and try to take its place or serve as substitutes.
Bitcoin is not going to just become obvious to people until quite a ways down the line and a long process and a lot of folks getting in much later than others and likely quite a few people getting reckt along the way, too, while others are making large profits. Most likely the earlier the adopter, the more profits, but even that is not going to be clear because there are going to be dooms day sayers and bubble callers all along the way, too, including roach will be preaching his gospel along the way, and if it is not this particular roach, there will be others like him who know better and are able to convince some dumb money to hedge on an Armageddon that does not happen in any kind of way that is close to their speculation of how or even their speculation of likelihood, even though they are engaging in various forms of banking on those dumbass - but sometimes well articulated things to happen.