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You can play bitcoin investment matters however you like but it seems like a decently postured asymmetric bet .....
It has always been an asymetric bet.....but that understanding comes with recognition that it is a bet, and thus has a finite probability of failure.
Going to our probability calculations, I now estimate a 65% chance we are in a bull market. The latest rally ironically reduced that probability, because it deviated so much from the previous shallow waves.
The move to 13.5k can either be seen as a demonstration of relative strength, or as a failed parabolic rally in a bear market, which is a much more bearish signal.
So, bull market 65%, bear market 35%. My breakdown of that :
New AYH within weeks 25%, bounce from support (at $6.5k, $8.5k) 15%, extended sideways consolidation 25%.
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.
Those percentages are likely not a whole hell of a lot different from my own, but I don't think that we bounce around from bull to bear to bull so easily, but I agree that sometimes it can be a bit difficult to know exactly what we are in, so it might not be that we are bouncing around but just not sure about where we are at.
Anyhow, pretty much after we broke above $4,200 on April 1 and then we went to $6k ish and largely stayed UP for a considerable amount of time, that caused me to conclude, at first tentatively, that we had returned to the bull market. So going back to a bear market would require a decent amount of down for a decent amount of time, otherwise we are merely in a correction of a bullmarket.
So seems to be one of my criticisms of you, majormax, in that you are wanting to pull the bear trigger too quickly, from my assessment.
I find it bullish as fuck that our correction from $13,880 has only been down to $9,614... so damned.. seems to be bullish to me, even if there seem to be some difficulties getting back above $13k and staying there... Could take a few more days, or it could take a month or two to get back above $13,880, but that still seems to be bullish to me, as long as we don't drop below $7k. If we drop below $7k, then at that point, we can start talking about the possibility of bearish.. and even that would not necessarily be a given bearish, depending on context.
OK, fair analysis, I think. Yes, the market is now/still in bull mode, until confirmed otherwise. My posts are usually trying to remind everyone (myself included !) that there are different possible directions at every point in the market ....no matter how sure an observer may be, there are constant surprises.
I think I am also liable to appear open to bear interpretation :
1. As a devils advocate to the perceived bullish consensus.
2. To avoid disappointment .
3. To remind us that patience is required.
I do agree that the action since 13.8k can be interpreted as bullish (although I'm presenting the possible alternative as well).
The level of 13.8k is very important, because, as it was reached in an exponential spike, it forms very strong overhead resistance. A decisive breach of 13.8 is less likely in the short term now.
However, if price did move strongly above that , it would indeed be the super-bullish signal.
I am attempting (maybe not succeeding) to present a view which is neither bullish nor bearish. The market is neither of those until proven/confirmed.