Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 981. (Read 26711902 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Ya know what one of the biggest kickers of this whole thing is?


Wow, top Standford Law profs, and they couldn't advise their son on how to stay out of fucking jail by avoiding massive financial fraud.  

I mean, who was the CLO on his payroll? Daffy Duck?

This whole thing reeks.

My take on price targets, etc..longer term view.

Previously I thought that we would likely peak at around 150-160K for this cycle.
However, the following occurred to me recently and presented a "new" pattern related to bitcoin market:

1. Bitcoin ETFs is the fastest growing ETF (even when counting just iBIT) EVER.

2. Before, say, 2020, only "true" hard core bitcoiners, including OGs (with more than, say, 8 years of experience or two full cycles) accumulated btc.
Most people used it as a speculation vehicle, although this has been progressively changing, maybe since 2020.

3. Fiat continues to be printed and easing would most likely commence relatively soon (worldwide). A simple reason is that governments cannot afford to keep paying large interest on their already large debt and pay for this with yet a new "layer" of debt. When people do this with credit cards, bankruptcy ensues relatively soon.

4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned to buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.

5. Gold appreciated about 5X in seven years after ETF, practically going straight up steadily, undeterred (mostly) even by the GFC in 2008.

All this suggest to me that it would be very difficult to predict an actual top as it is maybe 8 years or a decade away.
Well, a temporary top may, indeed, occur at 150-200K, but if the correction would be shallow by bitcoin's criteria, like 20-30%, then would it even be a "real" cycle going forward?
Instead, we might switch to a "utility cycle" or "adoption cycle" until at least $20 tril ($1 mil) plus minus 30% or even more, perhaps.

We all know shakeouts will come, sure.
But the whole world is starting to recognize what big of an invention Bitcoin is and how it is able to outperform everything else when looking at it longterm, like tens to hundred years, utility-wise, security-wise and gains-wise.

People may catch on faster than many expected.  

For most of us older Bitcoiners it has been a waiting game that society catches on and starts recognizing what has actually been invented here.  We are probably on the brink of real mainstream adoption (john doe, companies, banks, countries)

And it's important not to confuse the spreading of a ground braking technology with the short term noise that it comes with, like shitcoin speculation etc.


TL/DR
It may look like a peak when BTC and the noise around it is too heavily in the mainstream but one day that might just be Bitcoin itself becoming the mainstream, due to adoption, just like cars, electricity or the internet.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

 Oh yeah! Thanks for reminding me.  I supposed I should start looking at my stuff... I didn't sell anything but I can't even remember the last time I didn't owe them something.  Bastards.

I hate spending Bitcoin.

Unfortunately tomorrow is a bank holiday here so I had to buy some dollars today to pay the taxman.

Luckily I was able to catch close to the top ($71.2k USD) late this morning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMdcE8jdz70

"I'm the taxman and you're working hodling for no one but me."

I hear Elton John singing this text in "Candle in the wind" manner, while reading this.  

My only concern is that EVERYONE expects Bitcoin to hit $100K it feels like.  Our predictions don't even consider it a possibility that it doesn't.  That scares me as I believe markets always hunt for max pain.  I don't think we're going to go up without some sort of disastrous crash that scares a ton of people out of the market.  There is just too much bullishness.  I'm starting to read about people cashing out their retirement to long memecoins.  Saylor is back shilling on TV every day.  There are just so many signs of a top and we should still be possibly 500 days away from the peak.  Either we're going to $400,000 or we're going to see a shakeout soon.  My thoughts...  I also think $138K isn't a bad prediction for the high of this cycle.

"Ultra Bullish: 250k"   ??   I don't think you know what the badger is capable of

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I had the opportunity to buy bitcoin when it was in four digits. There is always a regret of it's too late to buy Bitcoin now even when BTC touched 100$. I don't think it's expensive to buy Bitcoin now as 100k$ is standing next door. Adjust your accumulation strategy with price variations.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

This is very typical and repeats a lot. You are either in the "dang" 60k is expensive or "dang" 60k is cheap. If you want to elevate out of these perspectives you need to think less about the price in the moment and come at it from a price target perspective. e.g is the current price cheaper than my target price. My target price's for this cycle are

Very Conservative: 110k
Conservative: 138k
Bullish: 170k
Ultra Bullish: 250k

If we go up past or close to 110k will start to reprice the high target to next level, so I always have the perspective in this cycle that "dang" XXXk is cheap.

Keep stacking :-)

I spent about an hr yesterday watching the market defend/attack in this range 69100 - 69500. I use a real time 1min chart in an exchange as the main viewing arena and then two secondary views.

Long/Short Ratio - gamblers be gamblin'

https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio

Orderbook Depth - bit of delay on this but nice to watch the aggregated walls move around

https://www.coinglass.com/merge/BTC-USD-SPOT

How do you "observe" ?

...

Two stories caught my attention over the past day.

Google makes it easier to track public addresses being used, apparently they can capture IP addresses too.  Looks like we have to use VPNs if we want privacy.

https://bitbo.news/google-btc-address-search/

kitco.com (major gold site, many gold sellers use their price info to price buys & sales to the public) has an article from Bitcoin player Brian Dixon.  Brian is looking at prices from $250,000 to perhaps over $1,000,000.  And perhaps it won't take long to get there...:

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-27/forget-100k-bitcoin-headed-1-million-institutional-money-pours-otc-capital

I've thought about this a few times, how much the dynamics of the moment can change our perception of price, whether it's expensive or cheap...

The best price I could buy BTC was 16,000 USD, but I also bought it at higher prices and found it cheap in a way...

The way things are right now we can consider a price below 100k (or 70k) can still be considered cheap... I think the ideas of cheap or expensive change from price region to price region... this change in price mentality.

I think it would be the same if I had bought it for 100 USD or 1000 USD... it all depends on the moment, right? Change in perception happens all the time

human behavior is an inexplicable thing

As funny as it is to see him fail, as always, I would have preferred to see the ones he donated to and clearly kept the charade going as long as no one found out, to be locked up.

Lol, what a fkn joke.

The establishment propped this guy up, gave him oodles of cash, and gave him all the rope in the world to hang himself.

And he did. Just like they knew he would.

What better way to produce the "rug pull" future event, than to allow it to create itself?

Then when it all collapses, they can swoop in and clean it all up, all nice and tidy, and then send the signal to the normies that "It's all clear to invest now. No worries. This kind of thing won't happen again in the future."

Sure it won't.