AYH by the end of tomorrow please.
It would be nice if the price of BTC got all the way up to 20,000 USD by tomorrow. However, I am almost positive with such a rapid rise, we would have a very deep correction, since many people caught in the December 2017 parabolic rise would love to unload and be done with BTC.
I agree with the first part of your thesis, bones, including that going straight up to $20k might be a bit unsettling to the price and even difficult to sustain in any kind of meaningful way...
--------------
Yep, said better than I could say.
--------------
but I think that my reasons differ from yours... including that such an upwards price move to $20k would be too soon and too fast...
-----------
Ditto, would like it to plug to say 20k over a period of saying at LEAST 6-9 months, so folk could get used to the idea.
Don't get me wrong. I would not be suggesting that any kind of BTC price stability would likely in the $17,500 to $24k arena, unless the BTC price were to bounce quite above that range first before coming back down.
On the other hand, we could bounce up to $20k in a relatively short period of time and then correct back down to our current price or some kind of reasonable (or not reasonable) range of our current price, give or take a few thousand dollars.
Also, kinda want to see the effect on markets of HODL'ers that run big Litecoin Operations, without a 'carry along' with the price on LTC after the halving in less than a month, that could act as a 'brake' IMHO, on Bitcoin HODL and Bitcoin Price as they have to 'redress' such if it stays flat or goes south in price. I would guess a majority of these miners are converting to Bitcoin as well.
Or, hell, it was what I used to do and what I remember from the last LTC halving, all sorts of scrambling..(currently not mining any scrypt-pow of any flavor)
I don't find it too productive to be spending too much brain power to attempt to make correlations between shitcoins and BTC price performance, including shitcoin LTC... Doesn't really matter too much about what the tail does, let's try to focus on the dog.
Similarly with other shitcoins, sure sometimes the tail might get caught in a door or maybe it gets pulled or wagged by some other entity, but for the most part, considering other "dog" factors will remain much more important than attempting to monitor and/or attribute some causation based on tail dynamics.
------------
I kind of agree with serveria, though, that a lot of the weak hands have likely been shaken and they are not going to have too much of an impact.. In other words, FOMO is going to outweigh whatever easily dumping.. while at the same time there is going to continue to be a decent amount of institutional money that is secretly (or perhaps not so secretly) trying to get in on this bullrun and even engaging in some front running attempts on the price - including already starting to realize about a kind of inevitable upwards price dynamic that is caused by halvening.
Unsure that I agree with above completely, but would prefer your above 'scenario' even if modest...big FOMO, IMHO, would be if the traditional markets start to get weak, if they themselves just carry on sideways in price, at their ATH, I just can't see enough FOMO for your plan. Ideally, I'm dead wrong, just saying that would get to the FOMO level you explain above, again, IMHO.
I think that I am describing a kind of phenomenon that could be taking place based on some current observations including the fact that more and more institutions are expressing greater and greater interest in bitcoin. Surely, some of this perhaps clandestine interest of institutions could dry up and could also have some symbiotic affects on retail as well.. including a variety of normal joe blows that begin to believe that there might be some upwards price opportunities.
Really I could give few shits about the specifics because we should be willing and able to continue to monitor a situation that seems to be evolving that seems to involve more and more players with more money that they might be ready, willing and able to put some of their value into bitcoin which can cause snowballing effects upon others, including folks who already own bitcoin but start to believe that they might want to grab a bit of a higher stake, too. Of course, some of the buying/selling dynamics could change at any time and momentum could even dry up.... or even move towards downwards for a period of time. I am surely not wedded to the continuation of some kind of dynamic that seems to be evolving.. but also seems to be bullish for as long as it does continue to play this way.
