This year is perhaps the best example why hodling is way more profitable than trading. We had 4.5x raise of the price with 2 very short lived dips 20%+. If you are telling me that you predicted both dips and didn't sleep to catch the bottoms, then you are the best trader in the world. But the truth is that 99.99% of the traders didn't sold just at the moments before the price dropped. In all cases hodlers had the biggest profit. However, I must warn you that I sense some complacency and over confidence, that may play a bad game in your future trades. Based on the probability theory and the testimony of many traders, 10 successfull trades may and will be completely annihilated by the 11th, even if your are genious. And then you will be vulnerable to the negative emotions and make other bad choices which may bring a substantial loss. Your philosophy is proven to be wrong by the founders of the HODL movement. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin to be traded for 10% profit and then dumped. If you think so, better go to Poloniex or Binance and trade shitcoins.
I respectfully disagree. I am significantly better off for trading with a part of my stash - what I call the play money. At heart I'm a hodler, but I can't always (ever?) buy as much as I'd like, so a bit of trading on the side helps a lot. As to the 11th losing trade annihilating the previous 10 winning ones, I think it boils down to being careful and sticking to a reasonable quantitative plan. You win, you take it off the table. You lose, you lose and eat it and go on.
Of course, looking for exact tops and bottoms is a recipe for disaster. My point is, you don't need to catch the extremes to be profitable.
Disclosure: I've got a green long position which I'm getting a bit impatient to close, and a smaller short position, in the red, which I'm hoping to make a bit larger averaging up, ladder style. When the two positions are equal, my net position stays put, more or less, since one makes up for the other. Then it's a game of consuming the winning side and then the other one, aiming to reach the null point (0 long, 0 short).
Many shorters burned this year, and you know it. For 6 months they kept losing money. Finally, there were some profit at the last drop, but who cares. If you are "hodler" and try to make some profit with 10% of your stash, this is just a child game. Ok, lets think about my points. Let's say that at 4500 you had 10% profit. You took it, right? Then patiently you waited for a dip to 3K-ish but it didn't happen and never will be. Then at 13K you enter again and made another 10% profit. You took it, alright? At the same time the hodlers made 4.5x profit without doing anything! Ok, now, let's see the other situation. You want to increase your bitcoin stash and sold multiple times in 2018 with some 10-20% or more increase of the stash. Let's say you doubled your bitcoins in 2018 with 10 trades. And in 2019 you sold at 5K. At the same time the price wen't 4.5K from the bottom, so again you have 2.5x less coins now, if you were just hodling. So what is that you 'respecfully disagree"?
I see your point, ivomm, but do you see mine? By trading, even at "child game" level, I can increase my stash - which I couldn't if I had to buy with fiat that simply isn't always available.
By the way, I'm not an eager shorter. The rule "don't short the corn" is deeply ingrained, more so in a bull market, but in general she's shown us time and again how brutal her reversals can be. The matter is I often need to short so I can hedge and make some progress even while the long is suffering.
Your example isn't convincing to me. I am not patiently waiting for a dip to 3k-ish. I wrote that off before 6k. It's all SOMA, so I might be wrong, as almost always happens with SOMA analysis, but still. Similarly, I don't need to wait for 13k to enter. In fact, I'm in play mode already. But I can wait for my short to get in the green, which I am confident will happen soon, or at least less red, which would allow me to eat a small loss for piece of mind - after cashing out the long, I would be in profit anyway.
Of course, what I'm saying is personal opinion/experience and doesn't necessarily apply to other people.
But if you think you are smarter than the holders, go ahead, nobody is stopping you. I am just warning the n00bs that think too high of themselves because of 2-3 successfull trades. Bitcoin is not for wanna-be-quick-millionaires n00bs. Bitcoins is for those who value it more than the fiat, tether and the other shitcoins.
No quick millionaire wannabe here, and I don't think I'm smarter. I just happened to find a system that works for me. It grows my stash slowly but with low risk. Risk more, earn more. It's a matter of personal choice. Noobs will be noobs, and they generally need a few lessons before finding what works for them. I've already had a fair share of "classes", so it's only fair I capitalize on them a bit now.