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You can play bitcoin investment matters however you like but it seems like a decently postured asymmetric bet .....
It has always been an asymetric bet.....but that understanding comes with recognition that it is a bet, and thus has a finite probability of failure.
Going to our probability calculations, I now estimate a 65% chance we are in a bull market. The latest rally ironically reduced that probability, because it deviated so much from the previous shallow waves.
The move to 13.5k can either be seen as a demonstration of relative strength, or as a failed parabolic rally in a bear market, which is a much more bearish signal.
So, bull market 65%, bear market 35%. My breakdown of that :
New AYH within weeks 25%, bounce from support (at $6.5k, $8.5k) 15%, extended sideways consolidation 25%.
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.