I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.
the thing is this:
we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.
there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.
the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.
winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.
If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.
so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.
the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.
but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.
my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?
