It is very hard for me to draw the conclusion that the bitcoin hype is over.
If it goes down, media will be all over the "CRASH" headlines
If it goes up, there will be the corresponding interest
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During 2011, maybe a million people heard about bitcoin, and got a seed sown into their heart to buy them when the time is right. It took them 1-2 years to get in. See the result.
Now, a conservative estimate is that 100 million have heard about it, and many/most HNWIs are among them.
I don't know what the price is tomorrow or 3 months from now, but a rather safe bet for the following 2 years is a 10-double. (Actual target 100-double).
All it takes is for the people who ALREADY heard, to get their mental processes right.
I bet even my father-in-law invests a minimum of € 10,000 into bitcoins in the next 2 years.
An € 10,000 counts when multiplied by a hundred million.
The probability for bitcoin to go to zero in 2 years, in my estimate, is 20-40%.
Therefore I am still all in with all the money I *can* afford to lose. Until there is something even close to these odds available.
Such as arbitrage trading. I employed a guy to do it, and his first 24 hours have raked in about $1500 with not much risk, as is the nature of arbitrage.
I agree with your conclusion, but not with your estimate of Bitcoin going to zero. In my opinion the only reason for Bitcoin to go to zero is when the protocol is broken beyond repair and the chance of that happening is well below 1%.
The second worst case scenario would either be a serious bug which would result in double spending being possible and/or a prolonged chain fork, which could be repaired after some downtime. A lot of people would lose faith in the protocol for a very long period if such a thing is going to happen. I estimate the chance of this happening at 1 or 2 percent.
A third worst case scenario would be a ban of Bitcoin by several nations joining forces. If that would happen there are still many nations and people who don't care about the law anyway, who would give Bitcoin a huge value. Estimate: 5%
A fourth worst case scenario is a prolonged bear market, akin to late 2011. We would just have to wait longer for Bitcoin to conquer the world, but it will eventually. I estimate this at 20%.
That leaves around 70% chance that Bitcoin will dominate the world within this year and reaches a value of around $100bn.