Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 330.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 01:42:45 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 01:27:56 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 12:39:06 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.

Maybe we're talking cross purposes here. If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'. Sorry I'm confused!

I believe there's a non-zero chance that Bitcoin will be priced much higher in the distant future. This is why I have bitcoins in the first place.

I also believe that we will experience bubbles. Wherever there is an immature market with lots of layman traders there will be bubbles.

The bubbles and crashes make it possible for people like me to make money by selling into downtrends and buying back after the tide turns.

Now I've got you. Many here are very sure of the way things are going to go - and many of these contradict one another. Therefore it is sometimes not clear which future the person writing is talking about. Your use of 'eventual peak' suggested to me you were thinking it would crash and fizzle to its eventual demise after that. Now it is obvious it is not the case so I'd therefore suggest your use of the word 'eventual' wasn't helpful?

Luno

sr. member

Activity: 504

Merit: 250

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 01:27:56 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 12:39:06 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.

Maybe we're talking cross purposes here. If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'. Sorry I'm confused!

This is poker, no information beforehand will give you any hints about the peak. Selling all at the absolute peak is a fantasy. Selling some with every increase is the way to go, not perfect but proffitable in the long run.

If the price at some point falls back to a previous support level, you can buy some back at a discount!

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Quote from: Zomdifros on April 01, 2013, 11:34:27 AM

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

I would say you are totally wrong, if you'd check the forums in Spanish, Italian, etc. you'd see plenty of single-figures-post-count newbies going through the MtGox verification to invest just a few hundreds of euro, and there are more of them every day - just because MtGox is still the market leader in terms of volume. And then check the average transactions happening in EUR at bitcoinity.org, they are quite low - is very very very unlikely that the average quantity to invest for european newcomers is $25K.

mp420

hero member

Activity: 501

Merit: 500

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 01:27:56 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 12:39:06 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.

Maybe we're talking cross purposes here. If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'. Sorry I'm confused!

I believe there's a non-zero chance that Bitcoin will be priced much higher in the distant future. This is why I have bitcoins in the first place.

I also believe that we will experience bubbles. Wherever there is an immature market with lots of layman traders there will be bubbles.

The bubbles and crashes make it possible for people like me to make money by selling into downtrends and buying back after the tide turns.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 12:39:06 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.

Maybe we're talking cross purposes here. If after the 'eventual peak' when the price is right you intend to buy more do you think the price will never again reach the 'eventual peak' or do you have another name for the peak after the 'eventual peak'. Sorry I'm confused!

mp420

hero member

Activity: 501

Merit: 500

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 01, 2013, 12:39:06 PM

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

The point will be that after the peak there's going to be a slide down. If I sell close to the peak I can buy more at the eventual bottom.

I thought this game was about hoarding as much of the BTC supply as possible.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: mp420 on April 01, 2013, 12:36:40 PM

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Unless something goes drastically wrong by the time we get to the 'eventual peak' what will be the point of buying fiat?

mp420

hero member

Activity: 501

Merit: 500

DAMN. How come my emergency asks are always missed by so little. I had one at $106.31 this time.

OTOH, it would be better for my blood pressure if I just dropped out of this spike catching game and just tried to catch the eventual peak.

Spaceman_Spiff

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1001

₪``Campaign Manager´´₪

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 12:06:15 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 01, 2013, 12:02:34 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

No, I am verified, and I invested significantly less than the sum you suggest.

Please tell me more about it! In Sep 2012 I spend a good 30 days trying to get verified w/ Gox (finally with success). Did you also do yours at that time?

Because now I don't think it is very prudent to wait this long as prices are increasing..

Looking back at my emails, it took a little less than 2 weeks between creating my account online, and my first funds arriving. (end of september 2012, looks like I started earlier than I remembered, of course, those days were a lot calmer than now

)

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: Missionary on April 01, 2013, 12:04:30 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

...I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

I don't think so. Simply because of one thing: Ignorance.

A huge chunk of the newcomers are most likely not very educated regarding what exchange to use and they just pick the biggest, if they know about the alternatives at all. At least that's the impression I have got from speaking to the ones I know.

I agree with the idea most don't know enough and/or don't do the calculations. There's also the matter of trust and the history of exchange hacking so if people have a smattering of an idea of the history they may just prefer to go with the biggest and most reputable despite the time.

One potential advantage of this is whilst they're waiting for their first opportunity to trade they're doing some reading up and getting to grips with the concepts and potential of Bitcoin. With any luck those who were going to make a rash jump in to make a quick buck will have learned of the 2011 bubble and will at least know there is no guaranteed profit. Others may have learned enough to realise it has potential that is not lost were the price to plummet for some months. The combination of both should reduce the odds of that very plummet because they will in both instances be more prepared to just hold and not lose nerve. That's my hope at least! The enforced wait could be the equivalent of the legally required cooling off period of a fiat investment contract!

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BitcoinTate on April 01, 2013, 11:04:51 AM

4.4k wall at $102... very nice! We might just hit $150 in a couple weeks... but then my bubble radar will be going wild!

If it takes a couple weeks that would actually represent a cooldown. It would quiet any bubble alarms I might have had.

As for reaching $100? Meh. Wake me up when we reach $1,000. (Exponential trendline support has us there by early September.)

Missionary

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: BitcoinTate on April 01, 2013, 12:05:50 PM

I still think all these newcomers will push us past the $150 mark.

That I don't disagree with.

Ploo

full member

Activity: 125

Merit: 100

USD on the orderbook barely touched. BTC on the orderbook down to 45k.

Maybe if all those with hopeful bids down low actually bought come coins they could make a profit.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on April 01, 2013, 12:02:34 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

No, I am verified, and I invested significantly less than the sum you suggest.

Please tell me more about it! In Sep 2012 I spend a good 30 days trying to get verified w/ Gox (finally with success). Did you also do yours at that time?

Because now I don't think it is very prudent to wait this long as prices are increasing..

BitcoinTate

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

DigiByte Founder

Quote from: Missionary on April 01, 2013, 12:04:30 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Quote from: Zomdifros on April 01, 2013, 11:34:27 AM

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

I don't think so. Simply because of one thing: Ignorance.

A huge chunk of the newcomers are most likely not very educated regarding what exchange to use and they just pick the biggest, if they know about the alternatives at all. At least that's the impression I have got from speaking to the ones I know.

I still think all these newcomers will push us past the $150 mark.

Missionary

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Quote from: Zomdifros on April 01, 2013, 11:34:27 AM

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

I don't think so. Simply because of one thing: Ignorance.

A huge chunk of the newcomers are most likely not very educated regarding what exchange to use and they just pick the biggest, if they know about the alternatives at all. At least that's the impression I have got from speaking to the ones I know.

Spaceman_Spiff

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1001

₪``Campaign Manager´´₪

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

No, I am verified, and I invested significantly less than the sum you suggest.

BitcoinTate

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

DigiByte Founder

Quote from: rpietila on April 01, 2013, 11:58:46 AM

Quote from: Zomdifros on April 01, 2013, 11:34:27 AM

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

That just gave me the chills... ooh!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Zomdifros on April 01, 2013, 11:34:27 AM

I'm wondering what the average amount of money is those standing in line at MtGox are going to invest in Bitcoin. $1000 perhaps?

Verification is not even necessary for such small sums except from Europe. I would say any European that bothers to try his luck with Gox has on average $25,000 or more to invest. Otherwise they would just get verified with Bitstamp, which happens in about 2 days..

8,500 * $25,000 = $212 million and counting.

Yes, it will take us to $200.

Beta-coiner1

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

I go to lunch break and it's over 100 already.....man the chills.

Listen to the blockchain.

Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 330. (Read 1811613 times)