Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 35. (Read 1811568 times)

I'm not bearish until we break below $50, to be honest. In fact I've got quite a lot of bids on the way down to $51 lol. If it does break below $50, then I'm holding onto the rest of my fiat and waiting for single digits.

I can't wait till the 80-90 range is considered bullish by you guys. 

Yep, co-worker signed up with gox on friday. Was number 25,XXX on the queue. Now down to 20XXX. It will be a while. The fiat arriving now was sent before the crash and the owners of said fiat took their place in the queue well before the crash. It will be interesting to what they do. I suspect most of us are playing wait-and-see.

I've been looking at downloads of the satoshi client as a proxy for new interest in bitcoin after the crash. The sourceforge page automatically starts aggregating downloads into weekly or montly buckets as one increases the time over which the downloads are tracked however, so I used the API to get at the raw data and created my own graph in matlab. This shows the number of downloads per day since the beginning of the year. The red line indicates Wednesday the 10th of April.



The number of downloads peaked on the 10th with the second highest volume day being the day after. Something the  complicates interpretation of  this  graph is the fact that there is a weekly oscillation (with a peak on wednesdays and a trough on sundays) overlaid on the underlying trend. To show the underlying pattern more clearly, I sorted the data into seperate bins for each weekday and graphed them as separate graphs.



On this graph it is clear that interest in bitcoin appears to grow unabated. The past sunday had the highest download volume of any sunday this year exceeding the previous peak by more than 20%. Similarly for saturday, friday and thursday. The google trends data for "buy bitcoin", "buy bitcoins" and mtgox tell very much the same story, but unfortunately no API is available to get at the raw data.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22%2C%20%22buy%20bitcoins%22%2C%20mtgox&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

and that is how we got to the peak in the first place.
big buyer(s) get us to the next level, the lemmings jump on board. rinse and repeat.

then the big buyer(s) all decided to get out with some early adopters.

lemmings left holding the bag as always.

i do not think they are ready to do this again anytime soon. they need to let time go by.

what about the users that got verified 2 weeks ago, then?

some bots trying to push the price down with small trades of 0.01/0.05 on ask side..

Over 1 million BTC sold over the past week. Price is holding in the $90-$100 range.

Bullllllllish.

Why during the 2011 crash the price rested stable at around 15 and now is holding at around 100?
What do these psicological levels have to do with the behaiviur after a crash?

this is boring lol someone do something.. tired of watching them daytraders doing the same rounds over and over again in the 95-100 zone.

Back up to $96. Bought back in at $90 yesterday, hoping it wasn't a mistake.

Starting the morning off downwards a bit.

+1

In fairness, gox only verifies about 1,000 per day.

And there's still a lot of people waiting to see which way the price goes before they make a decision. I think it's going to take big individual buyers or sellers to push it either way.

Some of our "bears" see a 2938 sell order and assume it's always yet another 'big player' cashing out for good, and also assume there is an unlimited supply of these, to drive the price down to like $2. Sometimes it is someone cashing out, but often someone's just trying to make 'mad gainz yo' from the dips.

What often happens is that someone might be selling, say, 1500 bitcoins at $99.5, hoping that the price will go back down to $95 so they can buy again and make a profit when it goes up. We can call this "shorting" or "day-trading." This person may believe that the price will hover back and forth between, say, $90 and $100, for another day before the new money gets comfortable enough to buy in. They wish to make some 'profitz' from other day traders who may not be so good at guessing the price movement as they are.

Some people day-trade on the ups and downs with a handful of coins, some people do it with thousands. And some of the 99.5 sell orders are just people with lots of money trying to cash out to buy a new house or whatever.

Oh yeah, and what Hermel said. That too

It may take a few weeks for any new MtGox user to actually be able to get funds into MtGox to start buying. 

No sign yet of the tens of thousands of new Mt. Gox depositors lined up to buy ...

ok, yes i start understand something about these walls finally
Thanks very much for your answers

If everyone thought the market was going up it would race to the moon straightaway.

Markets are always a fine balance between buying and selling pressure. When there is a bit of news, or change in sentiment, or some big orders which tip the balance then it ticks up or down for a while. The owner of the big sell order thinks the downward trend is intact, and expects to re-buy at 80 or even 70.  They may be right, or they may lose out on a lot of profit.  The person who did the recent 6k buy thinks it is going up, and just may be right!

It's fine to ask many questions. Just don't expect any authoritative answers. The only person who knows the logic behind the wall is the one who put it up. That person is unlikely to be present on this board, and even if  he/she was here, is unlikely to  tell  you the truth until after the trade is  complete. You will hear lots of theories here, but the fact of the matter is: nobody knows.