Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 777. (Read 1811599 times)
Turning out to be quite an exciting night
5k wall at 18.9... I roll my eyes.
In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?
the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20). So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not). But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies).
The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35). So some seller is VERY bullish. Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).
Sell short a put means he used the MKOPT function to create puts, for which he needs to deposit a sum of roughly 2.5 BTC / contract at these strike prices. He then sells the put to the market-making bot, booking a gain of the sale price (~0.9BTC/contract). On options expiration (today at 10pm GMT), the put is exercised and he gets his deposit back, minus the current value of the put. For example, if the current 24hour volume weight BTC price at the time of expiration is $20 / BTC, for one put with a $35 strike price he gets back his deposit (2.5 BTC) minus the put value (35-20)/20=0.75. So, -2.5 +0.9 + 2.5 - 0.75 = 0.15 BTC profit per put. 0.15/2.5 = 6% return on capital in about 12 hours.
Of course, the BTCUSD price could crash. For example to $15. Then -2.5 + 0.9 + 2.5 - (35-15)/20 = -0.1 BTC/contract a 4% loss on capital.
Bought 8,5 BTC at 19,1 wtf am I doing?!?
Lol,A lot of individuals sold earlier but think of it as an expensive investment.You WILL lose on it....but sometimes the market surprises you.buy high sell low or what you are talking about??
We will see, there is nothing certain but scarcity as fundament.
Bought 8,5 BTC at 19,1 wtf am I doing?!?
Lol,A lot of individuals sold earlier but think of it as an expensive investment.You WILL lose on it....but sometimes the market surprises you.buy high sell low or what you are talking about??
EDIT: overprized at $19.20. people realize this and take the profit out. market is too hot at the moment. stay away from it.
Bought 8,5 BTC at 19,1 wtf am I doing?!?
Lol,A lot of individuals sold earlier but think of it as an expensive investment.You WILL lose on it....but sometimes the market surprises you. 
Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?
Option=option to buy or sell stuff at a set pricecall = the right to buy
put= the right to sell
premium=price
I=me=buyer
chriswilmer=You=seller
example for call
you sell me the right to buy 1 bitcoin at 10 USD for a premium of 0.1 bitcoins
if the price of bitcoins goes above 10 i can buy bitcoins from you at discount and you are forced to sell them, my gain is=market price-10-premium
if the price of bitcoins goes below 10 i will not use my right to buy at 10 since the market price is below 10 so the option is useless and i only lose the premium and you gain the premium
example for put
you sell me the right to sell 1 bitcoin at 10 USD for a premium of 0.1 bitcoins
if the price of bitcoins goes below 10 i can sell you 1 bitcoin for 10 USD and you are forced to buy the bitcoin at 10, my gain is=10-market price-premium
if the price of bitcoins goes above 10 i will not use the right to sell at 10 since the market price is above 10 so this option is useless i lose the premium and you gain the premium
The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35). So some seller is VERY bullish. Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).
I think the seller is not that bullish because he received 0.979BTC premium for that. If I didn't misunderstand, the break-even point for the buyer and seller is $17.685 for the $35 put option
SELL SELL SELL 
this daily-dollar pattern can surely not continue. Itchy trigger finger on the $20 sell button anyone?
that would be a mistake. once we get over $20 it'll be smooth sailing to $32.
But dearest BTC prophet, what happens at $32?
LOL I thought you meant selling artillery 
Hear that?
Hear that?
In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?
the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20). So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not). But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies).
The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35). So some seller is VERY bullish. Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).
this daily-dollar pattern can surely not continue. Itchy trigger finger on the $20 sell button anyone?
that would be a mistake. once we get over $20 it'll be smooth sailing to $32.
Bought 8,5 BTC at 19,1 wtf am I doing?!?
What a rally !
I am so glad I looked back into bitcoin (better late than never).
I am so glad I looked back into bitcoin (better late than never).
same here, sticking to cypherdawg, can't sleep, gray hair, coffee overdose, dafuq?
this daily-dollar pattern can surely not continue. Itchy trigger finger on the $20 sell button anyone?
$200 sell button here
this daily-dollar pattern can surely not continue. Itchy trigger finger on the $20 sell button anyone?
What a rally !
I am so glad I looked back into bitcoin (better late than never).
I am so glad I looked back into bitcoin (better late than never).
Well fuck me sideways and call me skippy
That sounds both horrible and awkward.
In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.
Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/
The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?
All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.
Sorry for my ignorant. Does it mean someone promise to buy 27000BTC at $33-35 tomorrow?? How much premium does he earn by selling the puts?
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