Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 801. (Read 1811596 times)
wow this spread, no supply and demand within there:
Get ready in 3, 2,...
Quote from: molecular
I think we are generally overestimating the short-term effect of positive news (like wordpress, goldmoney, bitpay,...) and underestimating the long-term effects.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
sorry to repost, but it shows my view on this question.
It's worth repeating.
sadly enough, i've read that thread an actively follow it... had forgotten that very well thought out post.
We may have a short-term reversal in BTC/USD coming soon... watch this last candlestick spiking up to $16.5/BTC... if it turns into a short bar with a long wick that suggests a powerful reversal coming, and MACD appears to be near its peak... I expect BTC to trend down for several days, as the whales shake out the crowd... once everyone is sufficiently scared and we're back near support (est. $13-ish level) they'll buy all the coins back at a bargain before the next leg up...
I'm not sure about this. We're in sort of a vacuum uncharted territory. I might well go by 20 in a breeze. I'm not convinced of your view.
In my opinion if Infinti Poker takeoff we could see even higher price: http://www.gambling911.com/poker/infiniti-poker-set-go-live-february-will-use-bitcoins-americans-012013.html
Panic buyers abuse
Quote from: molecular
I think we are generally overestimating the short-term effect of positive news (like wordpress, goldmoney, bitpay,...) and underestimating the long-term effects.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
sorry to repost, but it shows my view on this question.
It's worth repeating.
i'm just watching with baited breath for the next stable point... the rocket is a great ride, sure. but we all know it'll peak and drop down some.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
relevant: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1447544
Quote from: molecular
I think we are generally overestimating the short-term effect of positive news (like wordpress, goldmoney, bitpay,...) and underestimating the long-term effects.
Sure, on good news traders with fiat at the exchanges will buy. But keep in mind these people are prone to take a profit even on a $0.15 rise, so the effect will be short-term and short-term only. No new fiat comes in through this mechanism so there wont be a lasting effect.
The long term effect of good news bringing in fresh blood on the other hand is too easily forgotten about by the time the news is old and we then ask ourselves: "why the $0.30 rise on no news?"
See for example the reasons I gave for justifying my intution of a rocket about to be ignited in this thread on Nov 5th last year: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-intuition-says-were-sitting-on-a-rocket-about-to-be-ignited-122454. We might still see the effects of this 2 month later. Think about it: it takes time to go from hearing about bitcoin to actually making a sizeable purchase: First the guy has to get his initial infos about bitcoin. He will then ponder the idea for a while and let the overwhelming info sink in (a week or two), then revisit bitcoin and get excited, take another week to make the decision to get in. Then it takes a week for him to actually get money to an exchange (yes, a majority of newbs will think mtgox is the way to buy bitcoins). Then he will wait for a dip or rally to actually get int (another week or so). Add this up and you have 1-2 months.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
Sure, on good news traders with fiat at the exchanges will buy. But keep in mind these people are prone to take a profit even on a $0.15 rise, so the effect will be short-term and short-term only. No new fiat comes in through this mechanism so there wont be a lasting effect.
The long term effect of good news bringing in fresh blood on the other hand is too easily forgotten about by the time the news is old and we then ask ourselves: "why the $0.30 rise on no news?"
See for example the reasons I gave for justifying my intution of a rocket about to be ignited in this thread on Nov 5th last year: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-intuition-says-were-sitting-on-a-rocket-about-to-be-ignited-122454. We might still see the effects of this 2 month later. Think about it: it takes time to go from hearing about bitcoin to actually making a sizeable purchase: First the guy has to get his initial infos about bitcoin. He will then ponder the idea for a while and let the overwhelming info sink in (a week or two), then revisit bitcoin and get excited, take another week to make the decision to get in. Then it takes a week for him to actually get money to an exchange (yes, a majority of newbs will think mtgox is the way to buy bitcoins). Then he will wait for a dip or rally to actually get int (another week or so). Add this up and you have 1-2 months.
;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.
sorry to repost, but it shows my view on this question.
i'm just watching with baited breath for the next stable point... the rocket is a great ride, sure. but we all know it'll peak and drop down some.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
You are spot on, ASICs are a very bullish sign.
Not only will it generate positive press, it will continue to keep mining competitive which is necessary for a high price.
We may have a short-term reversal in BTC/USD coming soon... watch this last candlestick spiking up to $16.5/BTC... if it turns into a short bar with a long wick that suggests a powerful reversal coming, and MACD appears to be near its peak... I expect BTC to trend down for several days, as the whales shake out the crowd... once everyone is sufficiently scared and we're back near support (est. $13-ish level) they'll buy all the coins back at a bargain before the next leg up...
In any case, can't wait to see how it plays out!
--ATC--
In any case, can't wait to see how it plays out!
--ATC--
These indicators are more useful in liquid markets: Not analyzing stagnant trades for a fringe currency at night and after a weekend.
We may have a short-term reversal in BTC/USD coming soon... watch this last candlestick spiking up to $16.5/BTC... if it turns into a short bar with a long wick that suggests a powerful reversal coming, and MACD appears to be near its peak... I expect BTC to trend down for several days, as the whales shake out the crowd... once everyone is sufficiently scared and we're back near support (est. $13-ish level) they'll buy all the coins back at a bargain before the next leg up...
In any case, can't wait to see how it plays out!
--ATC--
In any case, can't wait to see how it plays out!
--ATC--
i'm just watching with baited breath for the next stable point... the rocket is a great ride, sure. but we all know it'll peak and drop down some.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
$200k purchase at 2am UTC.
It's a reason unto itself.
i'm just watching with baited breath for the next stable point... the rocket is a great ride, sure. but we all know it'll peak and drop down some.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
also, what's driving this? aside from the Avalon asic shipping announcement, i'm not aware of any news that would drive such a spike.
is it allowed to post rocket pix here?
Yeah,It is crazy I just saw it hit 16.71 briefly.
not on mtGox
I saw it too.
But I also saw a flying saucer yesterday.
stop playing with your tea set, man.
http://youtu.be/4Yu2tfuU4bk
^^nice, btw!
Yeah,It is crazy I just saw it hit 16.71 briefly.
not on mtGox
I saw it too.
But I also saw a flying saucer yesterday.
stop playing with your tea set, man.
http://youtu.be/4Yu2tfuU4bk
right now it's a clear shot to 16.40...even high 16's if asks aren't placed right away
well; what i fuckin tell ya
High:$16.39999
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