Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true
I think there's a really good chance of it. It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think. And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up. If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months. The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.
QFT.
Especially when all these new asic miners, who now get half of what people are used to, want a ROI of their hardware.
They spent millions of dollars.. and do we really think they are all going to horde btc? Nope. They want their USD back
ASAP. Then maybe they will horde btc again.
If I spent 5K on asic hardware.. i know I would want my USD back. At that point it is not a hobby but a business.
the asics were bought with hoarded bitcoins. I bought my asics with coins I mined 2 years ago before the first boom. I still have plenty left and I plan to sit on them, if I sold them 2 years ago i could've bought a pizza, now I can buy a house. Most people are aware of that, so unless something bad happens that causes everyone to drop their positions and stop hoarding, the market is going to be tight.
I noticed a spike up in price as people were paying for their asics during that time frame.
I feel that most people put many into an exchange and bought bitcoins to pay their bill.
It was easier then doing a wire for most people, in my opinion.
The price did not drop down accordingly because BFL did not sell those bitcoins. The middleman
slowly sold them back over time instead of doing a dump.
I can be wrong though. Most miners do not strike me as the type who have 200-500+ BTC just laying around.
The amount of hardware to generate 500+ BTC in a reasonable amount of time is quite large over the last
6 months.
