Premiums on coins have been declining for some time as BTC rises. They will never catch up, ever.
In $ terms however premiums on coins has kind of stagnated but then this is no surprise as they are all still relatively "young" and a copper/silver round only has so much value before the ceiling is reached...
Coins, as with much of the Bitcoin Art, need time to mature and in some cases will need quite some time for them to realise any worthwhile gain. I would say in some cases there needs to be decades pass before values climb again.
Only the ardent collectors are the ones prepared to pay anything worthwhile and even then they are all seeking bargains especially in a bull market.
Expectations are frequently crushed by the reality of market forces despite ever more collectors coming into the space.
EDIT: THis place will always be a better place to sell as there are no fees or charges. With that said, the risk of shipping and the Travle Rule (on certain items) comes into play and could cause issues where dealing with an auction house there would be fewer.
Viz
Topic: WARNING: Beware of auctioning loaded coins with Stack's Bowers (Read 302 times)
Another thought. There also may be times you have to sell this way.
Estate sales, bankruptcy auctions, other things that require a public bid in with a known entity.
Just one of those things to consider that it's not always cut and dry. An estate and the executor of someones will can't give a coin to me and tell me to sell it here.
It would have to go through a place like the OP mentioned. Regulated, tracked, secure, etc.
-Dave
Estate sales, bankruptcy auctions, other things that require a public bid in with a known entity.
Just one of those things to consider that it's not always cut and dry. An estate and the executor of someones will can't give a coin to me and tell me to sell it here.
It would have to go through a place like the OP mentioned. Regulated, tracked, secure, etc.
-Dave
I think that a lot of this has to do with a new growing category. Everyone rushed to sell their coins there. I wonder what the chart would look like if there were only 5-10 coins for auction. Many of these coins have low mintage and as category grows in popularity and coins get harder to find the premiums will continue to grow. Its guaranteed as time goes on these coins get more evenly dispersed. Right now were still at a point where 250 people hold 70% of the coins (just a guess). Physical bitcoin will grow and go through the roof, ITS SCIENCE
But... really look at the orange dotted line on the first chart. That's the premium value for each lot over time. Sure, it dips down somewhat after the first few were offered, but what strikes me the most is actually how stable it is. These are all coins with slightly different grades, too.
The average premiums of all 1BTC Cas error coins sold at auction:
- 2022: $16,300 — average grade 65.4 — 20 coins
- 2023: $19,000 — average grade 65.8 — 5 coins
- 2024: $16,000 — average grade 66.1 — 7 coins (so far)
- All: $16,656 — average grade 65.6 — 32 coins
Note: Includes a coin sold by Heritage on 5/8/24 which was missing from the graph.
Heritage is selling 5 more on 8/17/24. They're a nice grade rainbow of 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, and the first NGC graded ones I've seen (personally).
I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone who chose to sell via an auction house and doesn’t regret it.
I sold a coin with SB last year, and I have no regrets about that sale. I made a decent amount and they made a decent amount.
Even though their commission structure (for loaded coins) is unethical in a general sense, it was reasonable in that case.
And for unloaded / unfunded / low denomination coins, I think the structure is fine since it works like any other percent-based commission system.
I think that a lot of this has to do with a new growing category. Everyone rushed to sell their coins there. I wonder what the chart would look like if there were only 5-10 coins for auction. Many of these coins have low mintage and as category grows in popularity and coins get harder to find the premiums will continue to grow. Its guaranteed as time goes on these coins get more evenly dispersed. Right now were still at a point where 250 people hold 70% of the coins (just a guess). Physical bitcoin will grow and go through the roof, ITS SCIENCE
Take you coin, ship it to the auction house, wait for money.
I agree with everything you said about auctions in general. Auctioneers are doing work and providing services, and that costs money. If you do it yourself, you deserve to make that much more of the profit.
What I don't agree with is the possibility of any situation where the auction house makes a sale and they profit but the seller loses money. As I mentioned earlier, since the auctioneer is legally an agent of the seller, this situation could cause legal problems in some places.
I'd be opposed to the opposite situation too, of course, but that's not a thing that ever happens.
Any commission taken by SB should only be on the premium, not the loaded value.
I agree that this would be the gold standard for fairness.
If 20% on just the premium wasn't enough to make this arrangement worth the auctioneer's time, couldn't they just increase the BP to like 25-50%? This seems so much more straightforward and it'd still be equitable for the seller: if either party profits, both parties do. Or is the 20% "sacred" to these firms for some reason?
Don't these auction houses usually charge a separate seller's commission on coins without much face value? They could make up the difference with that too. Not that it's anything different really, since the BP is really paid by the seller anyway since it depresses all bids by that amount.
I consider this post a big "nothing burger" (respectfully) I have been in the auction biz for over 25 years. and the physical btc collectibles for several. stacks is doing everything right, they only suggestion I made to James was making the bid increments $500 instead of $2,500 on high end loaded coins, $2,500 increments are just to hight to create bidding competition. also I think stacks should cut into their commission a little bit to help sellers get their high end loaded coins sold, if a $80k loaded 2011 Cas coin gets to with in a couple grand $of spot price, I feel that stacks should cut into their commission and make up the difference to help get the coin sold, then both the seller and stacks make money. think about how long the seller goes without their coin just to have it passed on because stacks isn't willing to bend a little bit. that's my 2 cents
It sounds like we agree on the most important points (bid increments are inflated, everyone should benefit, etc.)
I bet a fair number of people who own crypto coins don't have any auction industry experience, and that's why I wanted to put up a warning.
Heritage is offering somewhat better terms, but still with some pitfalls. They'll split 50-50 the portion of the BP that exceeds the spot price, and they don't use any reserve. This means that, unlike SB, all coins will sell. However, the seller will lose money when the spot:premium ratio goes over 8 (ie. if BTC is at $60,000, a 1BTC coin with anything less than a $7,500 premium will lose money for the seller). Heritage will always earn 50% of the coin's premium unless the spot:premium ratio is under 5, in which case the seller will earn a higher percentage.
Interestingly, this works out to be about a 9% commission for unfunded coins, which is a lot less than 20%. However, I don't know if they offer these terms for auctions of peeled coins, or for coins loaded with only very small amounts. If they do, that could be a pretty good option.
Yeah, most people want 1.1 - 1.3x for their high denomination btc piece. If they can't get it, we might start to see a decline in Casascius pieces on Stacks.
Obviously people are better off if they’re able to sell without using an auction house. Stack’s Bowers takes a huge commission and sellers aren’t really protected from low sales. I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone who chose to sell via an auction house and doesn’t regret it. People sell via auction houses because it’s easier and less risky, not because it’s more profitable. More hands in the pot = less profit for everyone. It isn’t rocket science.
Looking the data ... there is a small amount of samples, only 31 that I guess isn't enough for taking any assumption generally...
Moreover there are some "general circumstances" that must be taken into account, basically bitcoin value (1 btc = 20K USD is pretty different from 1 btc = 65K USD) even bear/bull periods and so on...
This can be part of the nature of the auctions can also go negatively compared to what was expected.
If you want to get the most out of your coin, put it at a fixed price that you want to realize.
If you want to sell it professionally, obtaining maximum visibility, and quickly... use an auction house!
Lastly regarding commission, the auction house has "fixed" costs (advertising, materials, site management, etc). It's obvious that they also have to make a profit...
Moreover there are some "general circumstances" that must be taken into account, basically bitcoin value (1 btc = 20K USD is pretty different from 1 btc = 65K USD) even bear/bull periods and so on...
This can be part of the nature of the auctions can also go negatively compared to what was expected.
If you want to get the most out of your coin, put it at a fixed price that you want to realize.
If you want to sell it professionally, obtaining maximum visibility, and quickly... use an auction house!
Lastly regarding commission, the auction house has "fixed" costs (advertising, materials, site management, etc). It's obvious that they also have to make a profit...
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The more auctions Stacks has, the lower the premiums as time goes on. This goes for other auction houses that have sold physical crypto also. Close to nothing currently on premiums the seller walks away with equivalent, or close to, load amount after auction fees. In discussing sales with Stacks, it sounds like most of the big buyers are non-crypto collectors that want exposure to some pieces for their non-crypto collections. The recent Heritage Auction with Otoh's large Cas offering, in my opinion, flooded the market with higher graded Cas's. Nothing against Otoh, great return and happy for him! The sale of his large collection just impacted the premiums, period. This in turn drove the demand and premiums down going forward. The non-crypto collectors now have a few pieces, so they are solid and are not looking any longer. No need to pay high premiums for a decent grade loaded Brass Cas, when you to snagged some of Otoh's or current auctions at close to load amount (hammer fees not considered). I don't think we will ever see the premiums the initial Stacks auctions brought until adoption and exposure increases substantially. This may not happen until BTC gets to 100k, who knows.
It's the cost of having someone else do it vs the cost of doing it yourself.
Don't go to Honda to change your oil for $79.99 you can get the oil and do it yourself for under $40.
Take you coin, ship it to the auction house, wait for money.
vs
Take pictures, post here, wait for it to sell, ship it, hope it gets there with no issues.
Not saying one is better then the other or one is wrong vs the other.
Real life example:
I could have sold my last motorcycle on the private market and probably gotten an extra $750 to $1000.
Would have take a couple of weeks and hours and hours of my time.
Left home 9 AM on Saturday, dropped it off at the dealer, got a check (that I knew was good since it was from a dealer vs private) and has the check in the bank and was back home before 10AM
Didn't clean it, didn't change the oil, almost didn't make it there since it had so little gas in the tank.
Now if I can only find someone to take the Ryker I would be good.
-Dave
Any commission taken by SB should only be on the premium, not the loaded value.
This is how Scarce does it
This is how Scarce does it
I can respect that suggestion, it does make a lot of sense. That would be a nice update to auction Conditions that I would vote yes for MJ.
Any commission taken by SB should only be on the premium, not the loaded value.
This is how Scarce does it
This is how Scarce does it
I consider this post a big "nothing burger" (respectfully) I have been in the auction biz for over 25 years. and the physical btc collectibles for several. stacks is doing everything right, they only suggestion I made to James was making the bid increments $500 instead of $2,500 on high end loaded coins, $2,500 increments are just to hight to create bidding competition. also I think stacks should cut into their commission a little bit to help sellers get their high end loaded coins sold, if a $80k loaded 2011 Cas coin gets to with in a couple grand $of spot price, I feel that stacks should cut into their commission and make up the difference to help get the coin sold, then both the seller and stacks make money. think about how long the seller goes without their coin just to have it passed on because stacks isn't willing to bend a little bit. that's my 2 cents
So at what point do you peel versus having to pay an escrow and or take a flight because it's too expensive to insure?
The value of a peeled Cas coin looks to be about $200-$800 depending on the year.
It also depends on the denomination, condition, graded/ungraded, holo still attached, etc. Graded, peeled gold 25s with holos, for example, have sold for several thousand $.
So at what point do you peel versus having to pay an escrow and or take a flight because it's too expensive to insure?
The value of a peeled Cas coin looks to be about $200-$800 depending on the year.
Watching the most recent SB auction - most of the loaded Cas coins sold for face value (plus the 20% buyers fee SB I assume pockets).
Yes, SB keeps this commission ("buyer's premium").
This is unfortunate for the sellers who basically made no profit at all. I don’t fully agree with OP though in that SB is not going to take on the risk of selling a loaded coin which is worth 75k and only make 20% of the profit above the spot price of BTC as it wouldn’t be worth it to them - there is likely some middle ground.
I know that large recent sale of Cas coins on Heritage I think the buyers premium was split between the auction house and the seller - that seemed like a fairer deal.
I know that large recent sale of Cas coins on Heritage I think the buyers premium was split between the auction house and the seller - that seemed like a fairer deal.
I agree with you that a middle ground could work, especially considering all the insurance, storage, overhead, etc. that comes with safely auctioning high-value items.
- As it stands, SB made $107,959 from all the loaded coins in their recent auction; sellers made $19,915.
- If commissions had been split 50-50, SB would've made $53,980; sellers $73,895.
- If commissions had only been taken on the collectible values, SB would've made $21,312; sellers $106,562.
I could probably get behind a middle ground that looks like that. If either party makes a profit, all parties should.
In fact, a seller not making any money or in fact losing money on an auction in which the auctioneer makes so much might even be construed as breach of fiduciary duty in some jurisdictions. Auctioneers are legally considered to be agents of the seller, after all.
What will happen if this continues and the fees don’t change is people will simply stop selling their loaded Cas coins on SB as they will not expect to make any profit at all as buyers aren’t willing to pay more than a 20% premium over spot price at this time it seems.
The collectible value certainly looks more or less decoupled to me, so I wouldn't expect to see vastly higher premiums from collectors. I mostly agree with you, except for one detail: If this continues, premiums hold steady, but crypto prices rise by as little as 10-20%, people simply won't be able to sell Cas coins with SB anymore, as their commission structure would make it impossible. Same goes for Heritage, since their BP is the same (20%) even if they share it differently.
I agree with a lot of what OP is saying here.
Watching the most recent SB auction - most of the loaded Cas coins sold for face value (plus the 20% buyers fee SB I assume pockets).
This is unfortunate for the sellers who basically made no profit at all. I don’t fully agree with OP though in that SB is not going to take on the risk of selling a loaded coin which is worth 75k and only make 20% of the profit above the spot price of BTC as it wouldn’t be worth it to them - there is likely some middle ground.
I know that large recent sale of Cas coins on Heritage I think the buyers premium was split between the auction house and the seller - that seemed like a fairer deal.
What will happen if this continues and the fees don’t change is people will simply stop selling their loaded Cas coins on SB as they will not expect to make any profit at all as buyers aren’t willing to pay more than a 20% premium over spot price at this time it seems.
SP
Watching the most recent SB auction - most of the loaded Cas coins sold for face value (plus the 20% buyers fee SB I assume pockets).
This is unfortunate for the sellers who basically made no profit at all. I don’t fully agree with OP though in that SB is not going to take on the risk of selling a loaded coin which is worth 75k and only make 20% of the profit above the spot price of BTC as it wouldn’t be worth it to them - there is likely some middle ground.
I know that large recent sale of Cas coins on Heritage I think the buyers premium was split between the auction house and the seller - that seemed like a fairer deal.
What will happen if this continues and the fees don’t change is people will simply stop selling their loaded Cas coins on SB as they will not expect to make any profit at all as buyers aren’t willing to pay more than a 20% premium over spot price at this time it seems.
SP
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