warning - bitcoin futures. Get coins off exchanges !

TheQuin

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Quote from: icanscript on November 29, 2017, 03:08:23 AM

Do I understand correctly? :
1) For the functioning of CME Bitcoin futures, there is no need to physically buy bitcoins.
2) Direct influence on bitcoin CME Bitcoin futures will not have.

1) Yes.
2) No. Futures contracts are often used as a hedging instrument so although there is no need to hold actual Bitcoins many market participants will. If the price of the futures got out of line with the spot price then there would be an arbitrage opportunity. This means that there is a feedback loop between the two markets and they each influence each other.

keykey1

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And what will happen then? Bitcoin will rise to the Moon and reach its next step — eleven thousand in a few days! Somebody will make good money on it. Do not you think this is just an extra hype around all this BTC situation and crypto market?

icanscript

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Quote from: Soros Shorts on November 28, 2017, 06:39:42 AM

I don't get it. How would taking your coins off exchanges impact this directly? The CME Bitcoin futures are supposed to be cash-settled and marked-to-market daily. Nobody, neither the CME nor the market participants, need to hold a single bitcoin for the whole thing to work. Market participants would probably put up margin in cash and not bitcoins. They may hold bitcoins externaly to hedge, but that is not required.

Do I understand correctly? :
1) For the functioning of CME Bitcoin futures, there is no need to physically buy bitcoins.
2) Direct influence on bitcoin CME Bitcoin futures will not have.

AGD

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Keeper of the Private Key

You should always be aware, that Bitcoins on exchanges are not yours, because you don't control the private key.

e-coinomist

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Money often costs too much.

Quote from: Nawaytes on November 28, 2017, 08:51:35 AM

Whales has been manipulate the price since many years ago, on stock exchange, forex, etc. and now bitcoin, but the bitcoin price still run and go high. Even though they sell their bitcoin there is so many people out there wants to buy, so why we scared of this whales?
The one thing that make me scare is: they (whales) buy bitcoin in big amount and never sell them Roll Eyes

Not precisely a Whale, but coming close to the described effects:
Trendon Shavers (Pirateat40) basically did the same approach, at some late point in time he had to buy back 500.000 BTC from market after prolonged price suppression by dumping customer's deposits.
Timepoint has been close to his arrest. Later convicted for running a ponzi scheme.
Nobody on our modern times can reach any compareable impact on these markets. Individuals became to small in comparion to daily cashflows.

Mariobtc

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Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

You have been warned!

And where are they going to get the huge amounts of bitcoin to sell short and crash bitcoin. ? From the exchanges ! Remember big exhanges restrict withdrawals and they signed the New York Agreement for sw2x. ie.They have indicated their desire for centralized control.

People MUST get their coins off all exchanges!

I do not think that after the onset of futures to come capital. All the billionaires of the old school used to stocks and bonds bitcoin for them. You'll see there's even the liquidity will be sluggish on these contracts

babybit2

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I'm actually looking forward to seeing what happens with the price once some big guns get involved, it will be fascinating even while invested. Will definitely look to pick up some more on the swings.

Nawaytes

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Whales has been manipulate the price since many years ago, on stock exchange, forex, etc. and now bitcoin, but the bitcoin price still run and go high. Even though they sell their bitcoin there is so many people out there wants to buy, so why we scared of this whales?
The one thing that make me scare is: they (whales) buy bitcoin in big amount and never sell them Roll Eyes

Odora

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currently, Bitcoin is being watched by investors, even many investors are turning to Bitcoin,
Bitcoin's future is sure, but to save it better use a trusted wallet and use 2FA Google Authenticator,
but if you're a trader, well better play your coin on the exchange site ...

Kryten12

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TREEBLOCK

This trading in paper has got to be the worst idea ever or an market, it stinks IMO.

It totally screws the precious metals markets you think this will be any different?

skakuza

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Quote from: Soros Shorts on November 28, 2017, 06:39:42 AM

Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

You have been warned!

And where are they going to get the huge amounts of bitcoin to sell short and crash bitcoin. ? From the exchanges ! Remember big exhanges restrict withdrawals and they signed the New York Agreement for sw2x. ie.They have indicated their desire for centralized control.

People MUST get their coins off all exchanges!

I don't get it. How would taking your coins off exchanges impact this directly? The CME Bitcoin futures are supposed to be cash-settled and marked-to-market daily. Nobody, neither the CME nor the market participants, need to hold a single bitcoin for the whole thing to work. Market participants would probably put up margin in cash and not bitcoins. They may hold bitcoins externaly to hedge, but that is not required.

Because if you manipulate the markets it's essential that you co-ordinate the movement of both markets in the same direction , for max effect. No use selling the futures market and the bitcoin market moves in the other direction. It may move opposite in any case , but they may attempt to time the move in both markets for max effect. The futures market is just a sentiment magnifier.

Also, who knows, they may attempt to set the bitcoin price in the futures market. Making it "official". As they do with gold. The gold spot market has been hidden from public view.

e-coinomist

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Quote from: TheQuin on November 28, 2017, 05:53:45 AM

Quote from: e-coinomist on November 28, 2017, 05:47:07 AM

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

If they have got as far as publishing the contract specifications I would say their intent is real and they think they will get the necessary regulatory approval very soon.

Growing weary upon that, seen the same chart disturbances 3/10/2017 when these ETF decisions had been luring. It's same old play again. Just waiting.
The CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate could pave some way leading to any ETF

Soros Shorts

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Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

You have been warned!

And where are they going to get the huge amounts of bitcoin to sell short and crash bitcoin. ? From the exchanges ! Remember big exhanges restrict withdrawals and they signed the New York Agreement for sw2x. ie.They have indicated their desire for centralized control.

People MUST get their coins off all exchanges!

I don't get it. How would taking your coins off exchanges impact this directly? The CME Bitcoin futures are supposed to be cash-settled and marked-to-market daily. Nobody, neither the CME nor the market participants, need to hold a single bitcoin for the whole thing to work. Market participants would probably put up margin in cash and not bitcoins. They may hold bitcoins externaly to hedge, but that is not required.

deniskiely

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Just simple thought , when government start to concern about cryptocurrency , they will contact the exchange owner first.
Because the exchange owner is still a citizen , not hidden man . So you know what will happened ?

erickkyut

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Yes people should withdraw their coins from exchange sites. The wallets in exchange sites are not safe. Much better if they will store their coins on cold wallets or hard wallets. I don't agree that whales will fully control the price of coins in the market. They can make an impact on it but they cannot fully control it because the price in the market will still depend on the demand and supply of the coins.

TheQuin

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Quote from: e-coinomist on November 28, 2017, 05:47:07 AM

Bitcoin has been free of wall street, too. On my knowledge that CME Group Inc. futures contracts introduction was a hoax
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cme-bitcoin/cme-says-bitcoin-futures-coming-this-year-but-date-not-set-idUSKBN1DL1QP
it's still somewhat far away.

I wouldn't describe it as a hoax, that's not the sort of thing the CME would indulge in. As it says in that article you posted the 11 December date was posted in error but the following has remained on their site.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

If they have got as far as publishing the contract specifications I would say their intent is real and they think they will get the necessary regulatory approval very soon.

e-coinomist

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Money often costs too much.

Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

You have been warned!

Bitcoin has been free of wall street, too. On my knowledge that CME Group Inc. futures contracts introduction was a hoax
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cme-bitcoin/cme-says-bitcoin-futures-coming-this-year-but-date-not-set-idUSKBN1DL1QP
it's still somewhat far away.

The effect you described will likely happen during this "transition phase". You can totally prepare for that, riding these swings.
Maybe two or three times before things settle, since high volume market makers tend to "flatten" the charts.

skakuza

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Quote from: TheQuin on November 28, 2017, 05:32:12 AM

Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

What you describe is just trading and occurs in all free markets. It has been happening since the very beginning of cryptocurrencies as well.

Quote from: iamTom123 on November 28, 2017, 05:21:38 AM

I respect people's predictions, projections and even the spread of FUD as they are all part and parcel of an open market.

Exactly, true of all open markets. The only way to stop it to replace a free and open market with a planned centralised market. This is the complete antithesis of everything Bitcoin stands for.

The difference in the bitcoin market, unlike shares or gold markets, you should be able to easily take delivery of your bitcoins so that they cannot be loaned out from underneath you. Except exchanges make it difficult and restrict withdrawals.

Rahar02

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Honestly, it makes sense, but there are few things that affect it.
We can consider bitcoin futures create a way for the whales from wall street to invest and cash out (manipulate).
Although, it happens everyday on every exchange where people buy and sell at their will, but not in a big amount such as whales can do.

But, I don't think bitcoin will crash just because of bitcoin futures. Bitcoin get too big to fail.
At this point, bitcoin may get corrected a bit, but it will regain the value over time (repeatedly cycle).

Whether people should withdraw all their coins out of exchanges or not, it depends on the people's decisions.
Personally, I just treat exchanges as the place to buy and sell bitcoin, not a place to keep it for long term. Most people may think the same way, and we will figure it out after CME officially launch bitcoin futures.

TheQuin

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Quote from: skakuza on November 28, 2017, 04:38:35 AM

The danger is a whale can buy short futures. Then he sells all his bitcoin. The price crashes as other sellers exit, he covers his shorts and buy back all his btc. This is how markets are manipulated with futures. And it's about to happen with btc. Bitcoin has been free of wall street manipulation until now.

What you describe is just trading and occurs in all free markets. It has been happening since the very beginning of cryptocurrencies as well.

Quote from: iamTom123 on November 28, 2017, 05:21:38 AM

I respect people's predictions, projections and even the spread of FUD as they are all part and parcel of an open market.

Exactly, true of all open markets. The only way to stop it to replace a free and open market with a planned centralised market. This is the complete antithesis of everything Bitcoin stands for.

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