Warning: bubble #2 might be forming - page 3.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 30, 2011, 11:02:33 PM

A second bubble will not occur any time soon. All those people who have taken losses on the way down are waiting to sell in order to recoup some of their starting capital. There will be far too much selling pressure on the way up this time for a bubble to form, there was nobody in a losing position the first time around to dampen the spike.

I wouldn't worry about it.

au contraire. most of the large geek holders of btc already coughed up all their btc on the way down not understanding the fundamental dynamics of what they had created. these have now moved into more strategic non techie investors who will not be shaken out of their positions easily on the way up.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 30, 2011, 11:02:33 PM

A second bubble will not occur any time soon. All those people who have taken losses on the way down are waiting to sell in order to recoup some of their starting capital. There will be far too much selling pressure on the way up this time for a bubble to form.

I wouldn't worry about it.

+1. Believe it or not, I consider current growth rates "slow and steady." This is bitcoin, after all Wink

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

A second bubble will not occur any time soon. All those people who have taken losses on the way down are waiting to sell in order to recoup some of their starting capital. There will be far too much selling pressure on the way up this time for a bubble to form, there was nobody in a losing position the first time around to dampen the spike.

I wouldn't worry about it.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

We are on a mammoth upswing right now. Many people who use technical analysis are assuming that the indicators are pointing to a strong rise and further increase. The period of time between May 1 and July 31 is detailed below:

As you can no doubt see, all indicators (and volume) turned massively up before the giant crash. The current market situation is simulating the period of time before that. We have not yet reached the point where all indicators are hard up, and there is still no sign of an impending top, or at least not one yet.

The sample size of the "indicators turn to bubbles" is 1, so don't take too much out of this analysis. However, I would advise caution for anyone with a long position if the indicators continue pointing towards strong, rapid, gains, and if volume increases dramatically. Some members of the bitcointalk forum propose a correction to the rally; if this occurs, it will remove any immediate threat of a bubble.

As a footnote, notice that the NVI is not very useful when applied to the 2011 bubble. It is included here because it has been consistantly high the period of time before the 2011 bubble, and if our NVI continues the uptrend further bubble development is possible.

Topic: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming - page 3. (Read 4316 times)