Topic: WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon - page 5. (Read 10870 times)

I don't think most people reading this understand the thread and are just babbling about some random altcoin.  He's claiming the liquidity crisis created by deflationary collapse will lower the price of cryptocurrency.  This is the Harry Dent viewpoint on gold.  He views gold as a commodity and says the price will go down, but the price of gold is currently not going down, it's going up.  

The market is pricing gold as a currency over commodity at the moment.  Bitcoin is even more of a currency than commodity in comparison to gold, so in a liquidity crisis, as long as Bitcoin is still easily spendable, there's really no reason for it to go down, it could just as easily skyrocket as people pile into it to get out of electronic based fiat that will instantly disappear (versus paper based fiat that's harder to instantly vaporize in a collapse).

I don't think it was a very good idea to make this thread because even if you think you can objectively define gold and Bitcoin as currencies or commodities, markets do not have objective rationality and could define them the opposite way.  If we're talking only fundamentals here, I'd still say both Bitcoin and gold are more currencies than commodities.  I therefore have no anxiety holding Bitcoin or gold during a deflationary collapse.

It seems to me the halving is bullish because less coins being dumped on the market by miners.

I think it is the scalecolypse (realization that Bitcoin is owned by the Chinese mining cartel and nothing can be done about it) combined with general contagion liquidations that may hit Bitcoin. The majority doesn't know the truth about these yet and/or still in delusion about there being some solution on the horizon. You go ask how many people realize that Chinese have already 51% attacked Bitcoin.

i was taslking about 1-2 months of profit for miners, it is more profitable than mining bitcoin directly, and it will continue to be profitable for the moment
i don't care about trading, i don't like to buy shitcoin, no matter what they offer, the only coin for me is bitcoin

Markets normally do what majority NOT expect, its already priced in.

In the case of altcoins which go into cardiac arrest when Bitcoin dumps, how does one get ready to fight with 1000 speculators over 1 remaining chair?

Seems to me it is Russian roulette. You pick an exit price and hope you get out.

There is no fundamental value in Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, StorJ. I analyzed them all, and they are all so flawed that they can't be used for anything. They have 0 usership, thus it is purely P&D. No demand for the coins otherwise.

Monero has some fundamental value. It has usership (not a lot but it has). Its hash function is also one of the least likely to be put on an ASIC of all those that are currently released (I think mine is better, but it is not released). Its anonymity isn't perfect, but it is the best that exists at least until Zcash is a reality (and capital controls are coming). That doesn't mean I think it won't sell off when other alts do, but it should have some firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts.

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Agree we got at least 2 months of BTC's rising and leading the crypto pump ahead of us.. sure it'll eventually top out and die.. just be sure to be ready to sell everything when the time comes.

In the case of Ethereum (not saying you bought it), that isn't 'profit' but rather a zero-sum game of stealing from our fellow speculators with the insiders taking the lion's share of the cash off the table all during the pump.

When the music stops playing, there is going to be 1 chair for a 1000 speculators to fight over. The other 999 chairs left the building and are in the whale's BTC accounts.

i'm also in agreement, the increase was too fast, and when there is an increase like that you can almost be sure about a possible strong decrease as well
not so sure about this month though, i think we can see a collapse before the bitcoin halving, or when the summer begin, for the time being we have at least another 1-2 months of profit

The USA imports a lot, so a strong dollar will be an infusion in the consumer's arm because imported products (including oil) will be cheaper. So this will be more money that can be spent on for example a renewed subprime real estate bubble.

So this will artificially inflate the consumption/debt side of the economy which is already disproportionate, then it will shrink the export sector due to the strong dollar (costs more for other nations to import) and the collapsing demand of other nations.

So the economy goes into a terminal bubble, that once it loses momentum can't sustain itself and collapses. Realize this stampede into the US dollar (which eventually decelerates) will create a momentum for people to take on new debt in the USA. It will be rapid and very short lived boom right before the horrific Minsky Moment collapse. Note this is exactly what happened in the booming 1920s (right before the 1929 collapse), as all of Europe's gold was escaping to the USA.

The markets have a way of head faking people who not paying attention to capital flows.

I haven't been following this closely, but it seems I remember that everyone thought they would raise by now, then the Fed backed off (and made some mention of negative interest rates, or perhaps that was Larry Summers again) because Europe and China were complaining (EU bonds spreads were starting to spread apart and China was seeing an exodus stampede of capital).

Remember market expectations drive markets, not fundamentals. It is the loss of CONFIDENCE that breaks markets, not fundamentals. So it seems the exhale from that unexpected delay has pretty much run its course and by March 13/14, the renewed reality of Europe and China's collapse will begin to drive expectations again.

Again I am not following this very closely and perhaps it would be better to ask Martin Armstrong directly.

What if the Fed doesn't raise rates in March, in 2016?

We can't fork, because China has more hashrate than we do.

Even if we change the hash algorithm (and you will never get political agreement on this), China can produce new ASICs faster than we can. And they have the Three Gorges Dam for free electricity and an iron grip control over the collective to charge the costs to.

(Btw, I think I have a solution to this)

The mistake you make is they can simply sell out to the USA and the EU to require KYC on every transaction and only block the transactions that have a tax lien from the G20 (or whatever). This will be capital controls fuck fest.

The big profit for China is on being part of the planned global 666 Technocracy (while pretending to be an adversary ... the global elite cooperate while creating pretend wars between nations).

You are not seeing the Big Picture. This is a $200 trillion gambit.

Yea, they could do so if they chose to embrace the famous Larimer "captive audience" fallacy.  The part where Larimer thought he could increase transaction fees to be uncompetitive with other current cryptocurrency offerings to subsidize some ridiculous referral system.  Blocking transactions or other schemes is not a valid strategy from a profit orientated entity.  If the Chinese government conspired to do it, it would just cause a nuclear option fork.  This is just a potential short term problem that could happen, but probably won't, and would not be the death of Bitcoin even if it did.

I do not see China as the future as a lot of people seem to be claming.  I see China as the sick man of Asia that could collapse at any time never to be heard from again.  Hilariously, any negative stereotype you see about Jews, Chinese culture openly embraces them as positive features.  There is no honor or virtue to be seen in China.  The concept of face in China means it's ok to screw over anyone that's not an immediate family member if any financial gain is possible.  The stereotype of Asians being smarter than the west is also obviously false.  Look at any math competition for youth nowadays.  Out of the top 10 contestents, 7 of them will be Chinese, but they're always the bottom 7, while the top 3 are autistic white guys every time who are operating on another level the Chinese contestents can't even comprehend.

Unfortunately for Marxists, the death of the west, which is just a metaphor for the white race extending from ancient Greek civilization, has been slightly exaggerated.  We did invent electricity, the car, the airplane, the transistor, the internet, and just about everything else on earth after all.

Note Harry Dent entirely fucked up and missed the 2007/2008 collapse (which cost me dearly as I had to try to liquidate physical silver during a collapse ... because I had moved back to the Philippines and couldn't leave my physical at the bezerk jhmint ... and at the time I thought US capital controls were imminent due to the collapse ... I was inexperienced and panicked ... but then learned a lot from Martin Armstrong hence). Dent has totally changed his long-term predictions for the future from hyperinflationary to deflationary collapse. I was buying his service back in 2006/7. He fucked me over. The only guy who has always been correct (on the macro economics, not short-term trading) since I started following him in 2010 or so, is MA (Martin Armstrong). I learned my lessons the hard way, by losing all of my former wealth (18,000oz of silver). Not just Harry Dent but also Graham Summers premature prediction of China collapse, silver dealers fucking me over (you see jhmint.com, tulving.com and the silver dealer I dealt with in Manila are all bankrupt!), etc..


The mistake you and many (most) people make is that an implosion is a slow motion train wreck that goes through several stages. The next stage is the international capital escapes the collapsing peripheral economies to the main reserve economy. This is the way it always goes, ditto in the collapse of the Roman and the Athenian empires. We are actually in the midst of the collapse of the US empire, but the paradox is that the core of the empire becomes stronger before the end collapse.

After 2018, the rest of the world will complain about the strong dollar as being the source of the problem, so there will be a monetary reorganization of the reserve currency to enable power sharing with EU and AU (Asian Union). Some say this is the 10 Kings stage which precedes the final one world global currency stage at the end game of Revelations:



So yes cash would be a premium, except we have a problem. The governments routinely cancel the fiat cash and thus force cash out-of-hiding. And in the past, you could hop on a boat with gold, but now your gold will be confiscated at transit hubs and checkpoints.

No this is a empire type collapse where nothing survives. The governments are going to hunt down everything. So until 2017.9, the mainstream wealthy will move to the US dollar and US stocks. Then the USA will trap (confiscate?) all that money with capital controls as FATCA comes into full force in 2017. And the global economy will implode. We likely go into war too as a result of this economic frustration.


No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land.

If you don't think China can't require KYC identification on every Bitcoin transaction, then think again:

https://www.aclu.org/blog/free-future/chinas-nightmarish-citizen-scores-are-warning-americans
http://theantimedia.org/china-just-launched-the-most-frightening-game-ever-and-soon-it-will-be-mandatory/

We don't have a solution for cypto currency yet.

I agree with you on most things, but not really this idea.  On this subject (concerning gold), you're either in or out of the Harry Dent camp.  The idea is that a debt implosion creates a liquidity crunch along with a deflationary collapse causing the price of everything to go down since it's hard to sell things at all if say, 90% of the money supply just disappears from people's wallets.  As a business owner, you're required to slash prices to nothingness to do business at all.

Highly liquid assets such as commonly accepted currency retain value the best in these scenarios, while everything else implodes.  Who is to say debt based fiat would even have value after such a market implosion though?  A vast majority of the money supply simply disappearing might cause a switch to a new currency because the economy would come to a halt, or helicopter money would be required to jump start it, which then causes the value to go to nothing anyway.  Fiat is in no way a safe haven.  Besides short term valuations, Bitcoin and gold are isolated entirely from those issues.

Dent seems to classify gold as a commodity and not a currency, which is why he claims it will implode.  Since the vast majority of gold's value is it's network effect, and not it's industrial value, and it's long history of being used as currency, it seems to currently have far more attributes of a currency than commodity to me.  Gold acted as a currency in the past but failed to work due to lack of granularity and high friction in use, so the money changers exploited this deficiency and gold IOU notes were born to make gold usable in a modern civilization.  Bitcoin solves both the granularity and high friction issues of gold.

The limited network capacity does not make Bitcoin a commodity, it makes it a network where only high value purchases or bundled low value purchases can be made.  The fact that it seems like I can spend Bitcoin in far more places than I can spend gold right now means the market could even value the two objects completely differently and have Bitcoin going up while gold goes down.  When is the last time you saw a Subway restaurant where you can buy a sandwich with gold?  I can do so with Bitcoin already, even in it's infancy.  For the common man in day to day use, gold has next to zero liquidity while Bitcoin acceptance just keeps increasing.  

Due to it's granularity and friction issues, gold is a useless trinket for a modern society.  I see the value prospects of gold vs bitcoin being more opposed to each other than linked.  Meaning buy gold if you think a market collapse will send us back to the dark ages, and buy Bitcoin if you think the shit hitting the fan will not cause the fan blades to decapitate everyone in the room and there will be at least one guy to keep the electricity running afterwards.

Can you explain more about the strong US dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports causing the US to fall?

This is where I'm most confused.

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.


The dead-cat bounce in gold is because the USA Fed did not aggressively raise rates yet, which enabled Europe and China to buy a little bit of time. This also enabled Bitcoin (and the altcoins) to get a bid. But this is a dead-cat bounce and  the final lows for the speculative assets is coming. Again I am reasonably confident of < $850 for gold and < $100 for Bitcoin. I am thinking perhaps $50 for Bitcoin, but it is also possible the block size issue and Blockstream totally fuck up Bitcoin and we sell off to $10. I think perhaps that is extreme, but I don't place it outside the realm of possibility. Again I don't know if this selloff will be in March or later in the summer, but in either case I am reasonably confident it is coming.

So for the interim time the safe parking asset is the US dollar. After gold bottoms, then gold is a go to asset but as a diversification not as a core holding. As for crypto currency, it is too murky to know yet, because currently it is difficult to know whether Bitcoin is heading for total failure (slap yourself, it is possible <--- click this link!).

For a core holding, appears the US stock market once the current correction has bottomed. Expect a double by roughly 2017.9.

For a speculative holding, find the best crypto currency after the washout.

For a core holding after 2017.9, purchase a Bible and pray. Seriously, nothing may survive. Even if you buy real estate in Asia, you may not be able to hang on to it, as the governments are going to cooperate to make sure we white guys pay all our taxes back home (don't expect the European policy of not taxes expatriates to hold). I guess try to diversify and put things in other people's name? Bury gold? (I don't like these ideas)

If you want more information, I suggest reading the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum. There I have defended against the trolls such as sloanf, and I think explained why Martin Armstrong's record is superior to any other analyst on earth. You might be skeptical of his ability to predict the macro economic future by tracking 1000s of financial and other variables along with his $1 billion of historic data in an A.I. computer model that employs multi-dimensional cycle correlation.

Edit: if you think Asia will be a great place to migrate too, read this:

Real estate is a tool of governments, you rent it from them

What other asset classes do you consider safe for those that value diversification? How about real estate? Which countries do you like right now from a macroeconomic standpoint?

Seems quite plausible that Bitcoin will implode this coming March 13/14 or shortly thereafter, and when Bitcoin gets a flu, the altcoins go no bid and collapse.