Topic: Warning! Please don't create another bubble! - page 3. (Read 4889 times)

No, your absolutely incorrect.

Whilst I agree we need to protect ourselves from over speculation which could induce a bubble, your above statement leads to me to believe you have no idea what your talking about (I wont hold your low post count against you)

Your first point of no increase in trade, just by looking at the charts linked below, your statement is a total fallacy.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/thUSD#rg150ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Cant you see how much trading volume has grown in the past 5 months?

Your second point "and no new businesses or services that are attracting more bitcoin trade than usual have opened up" is personally insulting.

In the past 5 days since we launched Instant Bank Cash Deposits @ BitInstant, we've seen over 30k USD in cash deposits- ONLY in cash deposits.
Since we've launched, we've transferred over $1.2m USD. 40% being first time Bitcoin buyers
Are you really gonna sit here and claim "The only thing causing the upsurge in price again, are greedy people who are speculating that prices will rise even further in the future"

I can leave it at that, because I know the hundreds of Bitcoin business owners will be replying to this post to defend their accomplishments.

Thus, I conclude while I agree we should avoid a bubble- you should also avoid statements that you cannot back up for factual evidence and proof.

Hey everyone,

This is a very important warning that I hope people will understand and take seriously.

Many people probably think that Bitcoin is finally "doing great", fueled by the popular media that constantly judges Bitcoins viability on its fiat exchange rate, and is now talking about the "comeback of Bitcoin". As many of you probably already know, the exchange rate means very little for Bitcoins viability as a currency, other than total liquidity of the system. The thing that truly decides whether Bitcoin is doing good or doing bad is the amount of trade being conducted with it.

As compared to when bitcoin was at 2 USD there has not been any increase in trade, and no new businesses or services that are attracting more bitcoin trade than usual have opened up. Because of this, the real value of the bitcoin economy has not increased. The only thing causing the upsurge in price again, are greedy people who are speculating that prices will rise even further in the future. This is how you create a bubble, and that's what is currently happening.

I know it's really hard for the people who are currently drunk with greed from their short term success (that is, if they're able to sell fast enough once the bubble bursts again). But please understand that even you, as a selfish trader and speculator, are NOT benefitting from creating another short term bubble. You might make a bunch of money in the short term (although with a huge risk associated with this profit). BUT! the new bubble is going to severely hurt all businesses using bitcoin, and thus will be extremely harmful to the bitcoin economy as a whole.

My company is currently running all its international transfers and payments to china in Bitcoin. Because of the immense advantages that bitcoin offers in business situations like this, I have been able to convince my partners to accept and use the currency. However, this has obviously only been possible since bitcoin became relatively stable at around 2 dollars. Now, with the rising prices, which are also seen in China, they are of course even more interested in getting hold of more bitcoins, and that's also great in theory.

The fact that Bitcoin is being used in a way such as this is also itself immensely benefitting to the Bitcoin market cap (which is what you speculators care about), of course im not making much of a difference on my own, but if the bitcoin price were allowed to be stable for a longer period of time, many more businesses that, like mine, operate out of several different countries would switch over for sure, ensuring a slow but steady, long term, healthy increase in bitcoin price.

What is going to happen instead is that the moment this new bubble bursts I will have to cease all trading with Bitcoins. There's no way I can give a rapidly depreciating currency to my partners. I would lose all credibility if my payment had lost 20% of its value after a few days. The only way I could continue to use bitcoins is if I overpaid the price by an amount so large a sudden 20% fall of the value of bitcoin wouldn't mean a loss for the the person im paying. And this is of course impossible to do profitably, and totally overshadows any of the advantages bitcoins have.

Bitcoin has enormous potential as a medium of exchange in international business, and could eventually raise to incredibly high prices, but you speculators are ruining your own long term profits by creating another short term bubble that is going to deter traders, and greatly harm the bitcoin economy as a whole.

What I'm trying to say is, I know you're a trader and don't care about much other than making profits. But even though your greed tells you to buy into the bubble now, and sell at the peak, it WILL be much more profitable for you in the long term if you let prices cool and not raise any further.