I'm not sure bitcoin will drop to these values. It can't go down without stopping for two months in a row. If the price goes down to 25k, it probably won't be for long. A bounce should happen in the near future.
Why not? If you learn 4 years cycle of Bitcoin price, we are still at the beginning of bearish. The next halving will be in 2024 and the bullrun probably takes place in 2025. There are about 2 years to go to the next halving and about 3 years to have the next bullrun (bullish season). With several years remaining, it is very possible that the price of Bitcoin to drop below $25k, even to drop below $20k. We are talking about the possibility, and it is not impossible since BTC price is purely unpredictable.
I agree that testing $20-22K is more than possible, now that $30K has been broken, even brief capitulation to $14K if there is a covid-like crash. I wouldn't rule any of this out.
However if price is still within a 4 year cycle, then the low would ironically be around $25K by the end of the year. This is where the 200 Week MA will be in November/December and what many have overlooked, based on the cycle theory that the low will arrive 12 months after the top. This is also why I'm very un-surprised that price already bounced from this level, if it is indeed the lowest price we'll see for the cycle. Given that it gives speculators a good opportunity to trade a dead cat bounce to $40K, $50K, even $60K, before potentially returning to $25-30K. As well as obviously hodlers looking for long-term discounts.
Quite clearly at the moment price is also oversold, or at least in Bitcoin terms oversold (in-between the December 2018 and March 2020 oversold levels). So realistically price can soon reach $20-22K and get to the December 2018 equivalent oversold levels to find a bottom, or simply bounce from here from the March 2020 oversold levels, without ruling out a re-test of $25K by the end of the year either.
The idea of a multi-year bear market also doesn't mean price needs to go any lower, something else many people seem to have ignored. Price could reach $50K in the next few months, even $60K, then re-test $25K at the 200 Week MA by the end of the year. If this happened then it would confirm a lower high from ATH, and clearly another 50% drop would be considered bear market activity, or a dead cat bounce at least.
A multi-year bear market simply means price won't make a new ATH, not that it will make a new ATL. Kind of like the 2019 run up from $3.2K to $14K back down to $3.8K. It was part of the 2-year bear market, but otherwise price failed to make a new ATL, given the second year was a dead cat bounce / consolidation year effectively. If the most recent cycle history is anything to go by that is.