Was there a Serious event causing current drop? - page 2.

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

Quote from: Roy Badami on June 09, 2013, 03:34:30 PM

Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA.

Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price.

roy

I was happy keeping money in Gox for awhile, and had a bunch of orders set up. But then I started getting nervous about the U.S. or Japan shutting Gox down (smarter people than me convinced me that was a possibility). If money transfers took hours or less, so I could buy and get the BTC out, I might think it worth the risk. But with it taking often a couple of business days to transfer money, I'm too nervous to put much into Gox now (with 20/20 hindsight, I wish I would have kept a little cash there to buy on this recent dip).

I also can't help but wonder, since Gox now seems to be in the U.S. government's line of fire, are all U.S. Banks still willing to keep wiring funds there?

Roy Badami

hero member

Activity: 563

Merit: 500

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 10:20:39 AM

most of the channels for buying have been taken out!

Get verified on Gox. Pay by wire transfer. Or for smaller amounts, if you're in Europe, and prepared to take the risk of going via Gox's Polish account, pay be SEPA.

Yeah, OK, if you're not in Europe you don't have the SEPA option, but really, I don't see what the problem is. For people investing in BTC they can probably live with the fees. Sure, the bank fees aren't much use for people who only want to buy a few dollars worth to spend, and we need better options... but the people buying a few dollars don't have any affect on the price.

roy

Mahn

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: doom309 on June 09, 2013, 01:28:27 PM

all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price

There are no "market news" that triggered this, that's the whole point of the discussion here; we have to guess because there is no explicit reason for the drop to be found otherwise.

doom309

full member

Activity: 170

Merit: 102

all this trying to guess why the drop happened, this could be addressed somewhat if mt gox had a live "market news" ticker on its website, so events could be interpreted better in terms of what is happening to price

Littleshop

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Welsh on June 09, 2013, 11:29:02 AM

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

I would agree with this. Also small ASIC holders customers are more likely to hold and participate in the BTC economy while big players like ASICMINER are most likely to cash out. The balance has shifted to larger players until BFL and Avalon clones ship more.

The ASIC transition is rough but necessary.

lch

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

I think that we are in a bubble. So its not unnatural for price to drop quite a bit.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

Quote from: kjj on June 09, 2013, 11:58:54 AM

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:54:01 AM

Quote from: kjj

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

You really need to learn to use the quote feature.

I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins.

P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only.

ok thanks- so some must be selling believing the price will go lower stil. reg

BitPappa

sr. member

Activity: 431

Merit: 261

Seems no one thinks a serious event caused the current drop.

My uneducated, newbie guess is manipulation plus fear. Not to mention, people are looking at the short term trend and saying to sell/short, helping to put more downward pressure on the price.

I don't think it means anything as far as the ~~bit~~ big picture goes (I keep making that typo).

And yes to kjj's comments.

kjj

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1026

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:54:01 AM

Quote from: kjj

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

You really need to learn to use the quote feature.

I was just answering the difficulty question. The cause of exchange rate shifts is unknowable, no matter how many threads pop up asking about or blaming gremlins.

P.S. The quantity sold is exactly equal to the quantity purchased. Shifts in price reflect a change in the relative desires to hold of the parties involved, only.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

ok I get that-but if the pools hold the coins that should not affect the price . is it not only if there are more sellers than buyers the price drops? if so where are they selling? it appears mtgox and other exchanges are having difficulty in getting fiat into them to sell in high quantities?. reg.

kjj

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1026

Quote from: reg on June 09, 2013, 11:43:09 AM

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg

The difficulty increases only every 2016 blocks. If a lot of hashing power comes online quickly, the network can find blocks faster, for a short time. The same thing happens in reverse if the hash rate drops for some reason.

reg

sr. member

Activity: 463

Merit: 250

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

I did not know this? I thought the difficulty rate kept block production at 1 every 10 mins? what happens when asics really hit then?. reg

Stark-Fujikawa

full member

Activity: 150

Merit: 100

Quote from: btceic on June 09, 2013, 10:44:43 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source.

These people are time wizards of some sort. June 9 2013 is now a Saturday.

Welsh

staff

Activity: 3304

Merit: 4115

Well, in my personal opinion. I believe it was the manufacturers of the ASIC were simply cashing out.

Shawshank

legendary

Activity: 1623

Merit: 1608

It may also have to do with the fact that we are producing far more than 3600 bitcoins per day, in a sustained rate for several months now. At this moment, for example, we are at 176 blocks per day. Last week I believe we reached 200 blocks per day just before the difficulty change.

QuestionAuthority

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1393

You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

Jeez, I'm sorry. I just wanted to buy a new Airstream trailer to vacation this summer and needed some cash. I had no idea you would all get bent outa shape over it.
jk

skilo

sr. member

Activity: 321

Merit: 250

The whole thing with Mt.Gox is probably causing most of it.

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

psychological shift is all

Micky25

legendary

Activity: 974

Merit: 1000

it could have been

1. the 3 black helicopters floating around my home, shooting radio waves at my computer,
2. people realizing that soon all BTC-cashout options are destroyed,
or
3. the asic guys (manufacturers) cashing out

btceic

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

♫ A wave came crashing like a fist to the jaw ♫

Quote from: ?? on ??

It was because of this fake email which was distributed on Saturday night, and then the usual noobs started panic selling. And I publicly accuse the "fontas" moron of doing this. He "predicted" a crash on June 8/9, and spread the scam email to make sure it would happen so he could recoup the losses from his previous failed pumps and dumps. I won't reply to anyone about this, I've said enough on the BTC-e chat box already. It's because of scum like this guy that Bitcoin's price is so unstable and the end result is that more "serious" people who would be welcome to join Bitcoin avoid doing it.

BTW, notice the pathetic invalid IPv4 address on the email, with one of the 4 numbers being 523...

Can anybody with access to the original email grab the headers we might be able to trace is source.

Topic: Was there a Serious event causing current drop? - page 2. (Read 4481 times)