Topic: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... - page 2. (Read 330 times)

Before that happens, we still have a chance to prepare ourselves to avoid that inflation. We can do many things to stay afloat in that difficult situation and won't be more affected.

But what I'm worried about is what Elon Musk said could cause panic because he's good at making words that can trigger panic and make the situation worse and take advantage of that.

But it seems that Covid-19 triggered this inflation 2-3 years ago, when basic necessities became scarce, especially the supply of health items that hospitals urgently need. And now, even though Covid-19 has started to decrease, we still have to survive to live because many of us have seen a reduction in company employees.

Everyone I know is earning less now than before the last recession 2008/2009, I can vouch
for what the OP is saying on that point.


Well it's interest rates which are being used to counter recession, this will hurt low to
middle income earners, same as the last recession, they were the group who paid the most.


I agree, this all started with COVID-19 and the resulting money printing which followed,
then following was the war in Ukraine and the resulting increase in everything.

For sure we are in for tough times.

Currently we are facing difficult times, maybe as you said that this problem will last a long time and we must be prepared until the country's economy can return to normal because it is very influential in all aspects including the crypto world, currently the crypto market is getting worse and there are already many coins that cannot survive until they are lost in the crypto market, if a country's economy can't improve anytime soon then don't expect everything to be back to normal as it was last year, but this is all up to us to continue to survive in the crypto world because all this is not easy for us to live with.

Between 8 to 10 years has the been the normal time interval in which we are seeing a crisis now a days. If you look historical at the global data for the last 40 years you can see a lot of the crisis happening on average 8-10 years apart. In the 1980s you had the Savings and Loan Crisis in the United States where a lot of small banks had too many bad loans. Then in the 1990s you had the Asian debt crisis again affecting the global financial system and resulting in negative economic growth around the world. Then in the 2000s you had the DotCom bubble crushing Tech stocks globally again. In 2008 you had the subprime mortgage crisis and then recently you had European sovereign crisis, corona crisis and now the high inflation. It seems that recently we had more problems than in the past, this is likely due to the long period of time with low interest. For more than 10 years we have interest rates close to 0%, it was just a matter of time for inflation to pick up again.

It's lame when we think of people with a fortune of only about $1 million versus people with billions of dollars. I find it very easy to predict the economic recession that was predicted a few years ago, since the outbreak of the epidemic. Many of the problems that come with it are very bad. And now we're at a time where the economy is having a lot of trouble, war is going on in different areas, but honestly, I think it's the individual who's being affected and adapting to the change every day. Everything is like an experience and it is impossible to do otherwise. Anyway, I hope we get through this difficult time soon. I wish for everyone and everything to be strong.

Our last recession was 2 years ago during covid.

Right now what we have is already a recession and the one we are in is stagflation. Basically record low unemployment , negative productivity and high inflation. It’s not good.

Every month people are hoping the inflation numbers or unemployment rates go up however not much is changing and it’s leading to higher fed rates which is causing all this bond market mess.

No idea when it will finally crack.

Why blame the Fed for the current recession, I think in the last decade the economy has been very stable and the economy is going up there is no reason why they suddenly raised interest rates to economy slows down. The covid pandemic and war happened so suddenly, these two things caused the economy to crash and fall into crisis, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation. Raising interest rates will bring inflation down but I doubt it will not stabilize if the war doesn't end but the task of the Fed will only be to raise rates because they have no better solution.

And more talks about the recession continues, this could probably be the worst recession in recent time but there are chances that it may even get worse in 2023.
The global finance is in shambles and I think the Corona virus pandemic many not be the sole reason but to put it plainly the finance of the globe has yet recovered full from its causes.

I think the currency measures put to tackle inflation and recession are becoming outdated and not effective so if they can integrate new measures one that hasn't yet been tried it might lead us somewhere.

And this is what really bothers me of all of this, a bunch of people take decisions which we later find out were mistaken, but who are the ones which have to pay for those mistakes? Not them of course but the general public, a person could do everything right, study hard, get a good job, save for their future, invest and take a mortgage and suddenly out of nowhere they find themselves without a job, owing a lot of money and inflation eating their savings away, and there is not much they can do to protect themselves from this and end up wondering what they did wrong and how their life could have taken such a bad turn? But it was not really their fault that such things happened to them.

You don't have to be Elon Musk to understand that today's crisis is more complex. Here Musk is absolutely right, although recently he sometimes surprises with his statements
But back to the problems. If the financial and economic crisis a decade ago was triggered by "soap bubbles" and overvalued areas of the economy, today's problem is much more complicated. Today's problem concerns more significant areas:
- a total violation of world legislation, obligations, with the complete impotence of all international institutions that should have dealt with such issues.
- corruption, venality, cowardice,  betrayal in the highest echelons of politicians in many countries, which has surfaced now, but was founded decades ago. Although even now many are sold faster than "port prostitutes".
- monopolization of the world's leading economies, energy supplies from inadequate suppliers. Which leads to a global change in hydrocarbon supply patterns. As well as long-term problems in the industrial sector.
- the coincidence of several global problems, in a short time. Covid and then the global terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, and the economic war of Russia against the EU.
- Now we will still be watching the squeals and tantrums of the two "fraternal terrorist regimes" - Russia and Iran, due to the expected investigation into the supply of weapons to the "second most powerful army in the world" from Iran, which automatically becomes an accomplice in this crime.

Therefore, most likely, the world will finish off the problems caused by all of the above for another 3-5 years (optimistic forecast)

After the previous global economic crisis, I sort of came to think that recessions will happen again, and that they are almost bound to happen once in a decade, more or less. I thought it was possible to postpone it and some events could bring it upon humanity sooner, but that it's just how the current global economy functions. Am I wrong about this? If not, then why are people acting like the recession is outrageous or that it's due to the war? There was also Covid, and that was bound to have a negative effect. Even prior to Covid, there were speculations that the recession should hit around 2020. It's 2022, and it's finally here. It's bad and probably just getting started, and yeah, it'll take a few years to get out of it, but I don't see it per se as surprising.

I think we are to wait until next month when US congress will be taken over by the Rep which seems the Reps are sure about it.
Maybe what we experience now can change for the better when decisions and policies can be reversed. Maybe FED will lower interest rates again. We are seeing banks getting bailed out already so this could go to a healthier economy again.

Musk could be saying the truth though. The rich people on earth are already speaking about it including Bezos but these guys are unaffected. They say things when they can benefit.

The interest rates were kept too low for too long. So many companies over leveraged themselves with the cheap money and now the money is getting more expensive, naturally they will suffer from it. It is the FED’s fault keeping the rates too low for nearly a decade and now is the payback time. It is not going to be pretty for many people because most of them will lose their jobs and life savings.

Regardless if Musk statement is true or not. It’s important to expect the worst case scenario and play safe just not be caught on potential more price slippage. I don’t see harm on Musk statement assumption since he is just doing a projection based on the current market situation. US can’t control inflation despite there plan to increase the value of dollar.

Slowing down on investment is the best thing to do if you have doubts or uncertain on the market. You will not lose if you didn’t ride on the market gain but you will lose if you invest recklessly on uncertain market. I will choose the abstaining just to make sure I have enough funds to cover my personal expenses just incase recession last longer as expected.

There will be food shortages because of these. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently issued a warning that food shortages are coming towards the end of 2022 and into 2023, WIBX950 reported.. 50 million people from 45 countries will be affected. Unemployment problem. Many countries could be bankrupt due to overwhelming debt. Already raising political tension could worsen over time.

But the main concern should be how average joe can prepare themselves to overcome this situation. I hope there won't be another world war that could cause the death of millions.

If you intend to build your investment plan according to the opinions of Elon Musk or any businessman, your plan will most likely fail because they say what corresponds to their economic profits.
Recession expectations have become certain, but the questions are whether it will be a controlled recession and therefore individuals will not be affected, or will it be very chaotic, causing bankruptcy for many and stopping exports.
In general, if the recession continues for a year or a year and a half, it will be controlled.

The average gap between major recessions has been 8 years, technically you might call the short sharp drop at the start of Covid a recession, but it was more like a correction that we get every 2-3 years. It is part of the natural boom and bust economic cycle of market economies - there is no getting away from it based on historical evidence. In the boom times people borrow a lot, spend a lot and the times are wild. In the bust times, people are paying back debt until the banks generally get in a place where they are more comfortable lending again and the good times pick up cautiously again. Ignoring this or trying to tame it is a task of futility, so better to just take advantage of opportunities whenever they appear.

1- Elon Musk is not an authority on the global economy. His opinion does not mean much here.
2- "I cannot see any increase in salaries" - wrong
3- "I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country" - sure its global. Its hard to find a country that is not affected
4- "The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed" The market bottom is always weeks before the worst days right when there is the most bad news and it looks like its only going to be worse. So its possible that we already bottomed even though the macro looks terrible.
5- Its hard for assets to continue to go down if thing that they are evaluated in (fiats) is going down at a rate of 10% annually.

Over the past years we had faced an economic growth considering that interest rates had started reaching lows and people had started spending money.
The last months, possibly during summer 2022 and some months after Putin's invasion to Ukraine we experience a new recession, almost ten years after the previous one.

I think that the problem is global - and not specific to my country. Gas prices are soaring, prices for items for basic needs etc. toilet paper are increased by 25-30% and bread, milk eggs and food in general are higher in price for almost 40%.

On the other hand, I cannot see any increase in salaries and see that we are in a stable economic situation. Having said that, the purchasing power of consumers is decreased, and inflation keeps increasing in rates.

Elon Musk said in an interview that this situation is going to continue till Spring 2024.

This painful situation has a major impact to all aspects, even cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is not going to recover if the economic situation is not going to be reversed. This stems from the fact that neither investor not crypto startups will take the risk to invest money right now.

If Musk is true, we are going to see only the strong ones survive during those two years...