Topic: We are in green 7 weeks in a row first time in 2 years (Read 5600 times)

Bitcoin is revolutionary. It changes how the money should be issued. There are more and more work on infrastructure for the usage of bitcoin. When these building are ready, bitcoin will be used widely. The value will increase. The price is difficult to predict, but the general trend is up.

Bitcoin is getting easier all the time.  New startups come to market every other week with a simpler way to use bitcoin.  You can even send bitcoin tips on twitter now with the click of a mouse!  

I'm certainly comparing bitcoin to currencies as you suggest.  And in the grand scheme of things, $5 Billion dollars is not much for the multi-trillion dollar currency market.  Especially an internet currency.  It has a LONG way to go.  

And again, I want to emphasize this.  I don't know anyone who can look at the past 4-year exponential bitcoin chart and say with absolute certainty that bitcoin won't grow fast anymore, unless that person had a lot to lose if confidence in Bitcoin continued to grow at the same rate!  

That's not a case I'm trying to make, it's just another straw man.  I've enjoyed the discussion.  If everything you say is correct, I'll be perfectly thrilled.

Twitter "adoption" is basically someone clicking a mouse. It's free. It's easy. Bitcoin adoption requires people to actually exchange hard-earned cash for bitcoin.

Of course sites like Twitter will grow faster. You have to compare bitcoin to stocks or currencies or at something that requires people to spend money to use it.

Twitter makes for a great analogy because twitter scaled exponentially without any game-changing attributes.  Bitcoin has game-changing attributes.  It has the potential to fly past twitter like a rocket.

You're trying to make the case that 300,000x growth means the exponential growth-rate potential has already peaked.  But when you look at the market it seeks to serve by its very nature, a market cap of $5 Billion compared with the Multi-Trillion Dollar dinosaur fiat-dollar-bubble shows that bitcoin is still just in the infancy stages of network growth, and there's bigger institutions supporting it now than ever before.  There's more adoption than ever before.  There's more infrastructure than ever before. So anyone buying north of $300 could be buying south of Fifty-Grand lol.  Yes, I "seem to expect" a hefty rate of return because the history of bitcoin shows this and the purpose it seeks to serve shows this and non-revolutionary apps are already achieving this.  It's elementary, Watson.  If Bitcoin succeeds, it will likely do so in the same manner as the last 6-7 years of its advancement.

Twitter isn't revolutionary.  Bitcoin might be.  So how does that make for a usable analogy?

Bitcoin has already grown 300,000x.  Doesn't that mean, as I already said, we are pretty far into this thing?  You're not buying at $0.001 today.  You're buying north of $300. 

This whole "bitcoin could fail" angle is a straw man.  I agree that it is possible.  I, like you, am pretty confident that it won't.  But our difference of opinion is NOT along the lines of "it will fail" or "it won't fail".  It's just that I'd expect a different rate of return than you seem to expect.  If we get a 40% rate of return over the next decade, I would consider my speculation in bitcoin to have been very successful. 

I'm sorry you wish that I were correct.  I didn't address the issue of technological advancement because I can't conceive of a reason why these issues will NOT be resolved. You reference things that the protocol can and will updated as needed.  There's already plenty of chatter about the potential evolutionary paths of Bitcoin, and they will absolutely come about in some shape or another because the people who participate to secure the network will want Bitcoin to be adopted more widely and thus increase their investment.  And it's not just blind faith.  It's math.  

Statistically speaking, Bitcoin was already supposed to have died like 78 times by now as seen at: http://www.bitcoinobituaries.com
Yet it keeps coming back with a vengeance because it was programmed to have a very powerful and distributed resilience.

You referenced the artificial transaction limitation that was set to limit spam in the early days of Bitcoin.  Satoshi Nakamoto (the person or the team) envisioned that there could eventually be over 100 million transactions per day. While there should certainly be caution in choosing the best course of action to increase the temporary and artificial transaction limit, I believe that bitcoin will survive these natural growth tribulations YET AGAIN as it has done so time and time before.

The twitter analogy is GREAT.  Twitter has had its own adjustments as well along the way.  And as you admit, Twitter isn't even revolutionary!  And as you also admit, Bitcoin "might be."  So there ya go bro! Bitcoin is far more significant and statistically speaking should certainly outperform something so arbitrary as twitter.

Bitcoin has also scaled quite nicely. Moving from $0.001 per bitcoin to $315.00 in 6-7 years, represents a multiplicative factor of 300,000 TIMES GROWTH!  That's 30,000,000%!  That's a lot of market confidence. I'd say Bitcoin is doing just fine and has demonstrated longevity and the ability to die 78 times and be magically resurrected with greater adoption each time.  

Yes, it's possible that bitcoin could fail.  But I'm pretty confident given its history.  In fact, merely by looking at Bitcoin's history, there should be no reason to even suggest that it's impossible for Bitcoin to make gains so quickly, unless maybe one were shorting the market and invested in its failure (in which case you certainly wouldn't want market confidence at all.)

One can't fall forever, one time the floor will be hit and you will bounce before being destroyed

April 2013 has ~12 bullish SAR dots. November 2013 is ~7-8.  That would give us 6-10 more weeks to fly. We don't need more than another week to confirm it. Unless we go up another $30+ this week, then the pattern is broken.

I wish I thought you were correct. 

I ask what has changed with the technology or the application of that technology over the last two years.  You don't actually answer that question, but you answer instead about institutions that favor it.  It wasn't a very specific answer, by the way.  The fact of the matter is that there have not been fundamental technological advances in the last two years or more.  If anything, some of the potential issues are even more pressing now and unsolved. 

The twitter analogy does not work at all, because the technology was far more simple and also much farther along in its development curve.  Long before it WAS adopted so widely, the technology was capable of scaling to that adoption level.  Bitcoin is not. 

Twitter isn't revolutionary.  Bitcoin might be.  Twitter uses the internet and refines aspects of it.  Bitcoin is more like the development of Hypertext Transfer Protocol.  Don't forget that buying at $310 in November of 2015 is NOT like being a private market VC buyer of twitter at the very beginning.  We're already pretty far into this thing. 

It's possible that bitcoin will be higher than $7000 in less than a decade.  It's also possible that we'll never see $1000 again ever.

I'm grown up.  I'm in real life.  I can see the $18 Trillion + debt of just one nation.  I can see the ridiculous explosion of money-printing going on.  And I can see the usefulness of Bitcoin.  A ponzi scheme isn't useful.  Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme and it has exhibited exponential growth due to the fact that it's a superior form of value exchange. 

Perhaps you're the one who needs to grow up and witness reality.  Twitter grew exponentially to 340 Million tweets per day in 6 years and it is the most simple application ever.  It just lets you type less than 200 characters to people.  Wow.  What a game-changer.  If you think twitter can do it but bitcoin can't, then you're in the wrong forum dude

A lot has changed with respect to how many more people and institutions favor it.  All these things you mention will sort themselves out and it won't take 10 years to do it, especially considering the extraordinary amount of people working on solutions

Oh fuck, 40% ROI per year is too little for me. Bitcoin is supposed to make me rich next year..

Come on, grow up, this is real life. 40% is insane ROI for anything real and would be called a ponzi all day long already.

You may have to be more patient than you would like.  I agree that the technology is a game-changer, BUT there are still a lot of details to be worked out.  The blockchain can't (or at least doesn't right now) support enough transactions quickly enough for mass consumer adoption.  You can't buy gas at the gas pump with it.

Two years ago, I mapped out a scenario by which bitcoin could hit $3500 by 2019 or so.  I think it can be used in the B2B remittance market along with several other applications.  I still believe that to be true.  But ask yourself this: what has REALLY changed in the last 2 years?  What has improved in the technology or the application?

40% per year will take Bitcoin over $1,000 again in 4-5 years.  That's ridiculously too long for a technology that's supposed to be more of a game-changer than twitter, which took like 6 years to explode.  The same metrics will take Bitcoin to about $7,000 in a decade.  That's a really long span in bitcoin time.  It would be a tragedy if adoption took that long

I have never heard about the Huobi until i saw in an coindesk article.
It seems that is the second exchange after the OKcoin about the volume.
Both of them have large volume and large buy/sell orders, yesterday was a red hope today will end by green.

Could the bullish pSAR be due to the MM ponzi scheme and the Bitcoins bought to pay that businessman's ransom? The price crashed after rumors started flying that the MM ponzi scheme had switched to "pause mode", which might morph into closed mode. All those Bitcoins being bought so quickly must show on the charts and move all the indicators.

This makes me smile!!

Updated OP, 7 weeks in green, 2nd week with bullish pSAR.

If the price sticks around $295+-10 for some weeks, then it is excellent for rising later. The whales have to collect enough coin before they push the price higher. They might dump some and drive the price down. If the price rise slowly during the push, it is good.