We broke 2PH. Next difficulty 260-300M ?

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: Puppet on October 15, 2013, 04:15:49 PM

Hard to believe. Only two days after we broke 2PH, we break 2.5PH
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Next diff 268M +42%

And because the increase in hashrate came so sudden and late, difficulty is lagging well behind actual hashrate. Even if somehow the network remains flat at 2.5PH for the next 2 weeks, the next retargeting end at the end of the month would be ~350M, that much is already deployed. So 450-500M seems much more likely before the first HF machine is turned on.

Blocks Mined    266.00
Time Between Blocks    5.41 (minutes)
Bitcoins Mined    6,650 BTC

At least there are more bitcoins mined per day for the miners

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Hard to believe. Only two days after we broke 2PH, we break 2.5PH
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Next diff 268M +42%

And because the increase in hashrate came so sudden and late, difficulty is lagging well behind actual hashrate. Even if somehow the network remains flat at 2.5PH for the next 2 weeks, the next retargeting end at the end of the month would be ~350M, that much is already deployed. So 450-500M seems much more likely before the first HF machine is turned on.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Next diff adjustment after this one: 375,000,000

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Puppet on October 14, 2013, 01:42:37 AM

KnC customers arent going to like this:

Last 120   13/10/2013 19:36   263418-263538   342 711 109   x1.81
Last 10   14/10/2013 05:42   263528-263538   334 222 335   x1.77
Next   16/10/2013 10:00   264096   270 281 794   x1.43

Not just KNC customers. Wink

But they should have seen this one coming months ago, many warnings have been given this would happen.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

KnC customers arent going to like this:

Last 120   13/10/2013 19:36   263418-263538   342 711 109   x1.81
Last 10   14/10/2013 05:42   263528-263538   334 222 335   x1.77
Next   16/10/2013 10:00   264096   270 281 794   x1.43

danhu

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

I believe in 30 days from now we will be close to 3.5PH

Operatr

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

www.DonateMedia.org

Brutal for miners income for sure, but this is great for Bitcoin as a whole. This is a crazy amount of computational power, which means the network is all that more secure. Obviously miners arn't buying miners because they want to make a fortune. We really need a fat BTC rally again to offset this rocket ship rise in network power.

nwfella

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1000

Well hello there!

I'm guessing we will fall squarely around 278M or so for this difficulty. I also suspect this will be one of the smaller leaps we will see for next 3 or 4 jumps at least. It's getting brutal thats for sure.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

No doubt KnC plays a big role in this jump. But keep in mind they are only halfway or so through their first production run, if they can ramp it up, even though we are nearing the end of this difficulty interval, the 263M estimate may prove to be conservative.

Also asic miner promised 500TH by the end of this month, last I checked they were at 60 or so . If they can deliver on their promise, thats gonna be another boost.

IM still guessing we may see closer to 300M.

operrajunk74

sr. member

Activity: 344

Merit: 250

Your next difficulty estimate is realistic, I believe big pie of this increase are KNC miners

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

we are no where near flooded. Only a small fraction of all preorders have been delivered and we've seen not much more than an initial price cutting round. To get an idea of what "flooded" entails, have a look here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/finally-a-correct-endgame-difficulty-calculator-295270

fattypig

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

The difficulty jump is getting higher and higher, I have always though that it would slow down once ASIC is flooded in the market.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

24h average just smashed through 2PH:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Granted, 24h isnt enough to get an accurate estimate, but its a milestone anyway.

Next difficulty currently estimate:

Last 120   12/10/2013 18:38   263176-263296   310 799 561   x1.64
Last 10   13/10/2013 05:35   263286-263296   256 016 117   x1.35
Next   16/10/2013 16:01   264096   263 548 604   x1.39
http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

Topic: We broke 2PH. Next difficulty 260-300M ? (Read 1880 times)