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panjul07

legendary

Activity: 3500

Merit: 1354

What is the number range for boths tails and heads? I have just tested with the test balance, all bets on tails are lose. All numbers is a lose if I bet on tails.
Seems that this site has the same bug with bitcoinflips, where players has no chance to win when they pick on tails.

Code:

2016-11-23 12:07:20 77.0000 -77.0000 6802 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:07:14 77.0000 -77.0000 4427 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:07:09 77.0000 -77.0000 0 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:07:03 77.0000 -77.0000 724 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:06:58 77.0000 -77.0000 6384 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:06:02 77.0000 -77.0000 8463 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:05:57 77.0000 -77.0000 7917 Loss Seeds
2016-11-23 12:05:51 77.0000 -77.0000 9577 Loss Seeds

Didn't you notice it? Please take a look at this bug and please deactivate the deposit to avoid players losing their money because of this bug.

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

Up.

MartinL

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 11, 2016, 02:57:18 PM

As said I have a good knowledge of statistics and probability so I'm not going to explain further more than the links i briefly posted, I'm aware however that this -EV can set me on bankruptcy, but the odds are really low for this to happen.

Then you certainly understand that with a sufficient number of wagers the probability of going bankrupt with a negative house edge approaches 100 %. It still seems reasonable as a temporary measure to attract new players, though something like a deposit bonus is probably more effective.

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 11, 2016, 02:57:18 PM

As also specified this 2.1x payout is a incentive for players to come and try their luck until the game is not established, then i'll lower the payout bet to more standard rates.

If you only reduce the payout to 2x, as you mentioned in another comment, then you would be operating with a neutral expected value. Assuming you have fixed costs the probability of going bankrupt still approaches 100 %. In any case you would be taking on a large amount of risk for no expected return.

To explain why this makes some people anxious: For a rational operator of a successful casino the incentive to steal deposits is offset or even eliminated by the fact that operating the game legitimately is profitable. If you cannot expect to profit from operating your casino legitimately, the incentive to run with the funds is infinitely greater, relatively speaking.

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

Quote from: panjul07 on November 11, 2016, 12:46:05 PM

Quote from: MartinL on November 11, 2016, 10:02:12 AM

Quote from: BTCevo on November 11, 2016, 09:18:26 AM

Darkstar already calculate about their site being -EV and that doesnt make sense why there are site with -EV. There is no point if the site with -EV still operating it because they wont make any profit in the end. So this thing will turn out become scamming site. From Darkstar point of view

I read that, but I'd like CryptoGore to confirm it. Perhaps he is not aware? Huh

I believe he is aware about what he offers on this site, as shown on his post :

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with.

Not really sure how long he can keep this +EV for players, I think it is just like a launching promo. Would be bad for gambling site owner to run -EV for the house for long run.

As said I have a good knowledge of statistics and probability so I'm not going to explain further more than the links i briefly posted, I'm aware however that this -EV can set me on bankruptcy, but the odds are really low for this to happen.

As also specified this 2.1x payout is a incentive for players to come and try their luck until the game is not established, then i'll lower the payout bet to more standard rates.

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

Quote from: btcforchild on November 10, 2016, 05:40:03 AM

lol, I finally found the game head and tail using bitcoin payments, a good idea for a game that a lot of boring now like to roll the dice BTCBTCBTC

Thanks for your feedback.

panjul07

legendary

Activity: 3500

Merit: 1354

Quote from: MartinL on November 11, 2016, 10:02:12 AM

Quote from: BTCevo on November 11, 2016, 09:18:26 AM

Darkstar already calculate about their site being -EV and that doesnt make sense why there are site with -EV. There is no point if the site with -EV still operating it because they wont make any profit in the end. So this thing will turn out become scamming site. From Darkstar point of view

I read that, but I'd like CryptoGore to confirm it. Perhaps he is not aware? Huh

I believe he is aware about what he offers on this site, as shown on his post :

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with.

Not really sure how long he can keep this +EV for players, I think it is just like a launching promo. Would be bad for gambling site owner to run -EV for the house for long run.

MartinL

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: BTCevo on November 11, 2016, 09:18:26 AM

Darkstar already calculate about their site being -EV and that doesnt make sense why there are site with -EV. There is no point if the site with -EV still operating it because they wont make any profit in the end. So this thing will turn out become scamming site. From Darkstar point of view

I read that, but I'd like CryptoGore to confirm it. Perhaps he is not aware? Huh

BTCevo

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1008

Quote from: MartinL on November 11, 2016, 07:37:30 AM

I'm confused. Is BitFlipy truly operating with a negative expected value and planning on operating with a neutral expected value later?

Darkstar already calculate about their site being -EV and that doesnt make sense why there are site with -EV. There is no point if the site with -EV still operating it because they wont make any profit in the end. So this thing will turn out become scamming site. From Darkstar point of view

Quote from: DarkStar_ on November 08, 2016, 09:33:16 PM

Seems scammy.

110% Return, 50/50 Chance to Win: +EV betting for the player, with an expected value of 0.05 units, if 1 unit is bet. (0.5*1.1-0.5*1) No gambling site can afford to run with a -5% EV for a long time, they will probably run when they get a decent amount deposited.

Ref System Giving 0.5% of Winning Bet Profits: EV becomes -5.25% for the site (might have messed up my calculation for this one)

Promotions with Returns up to 200%: -55% EV for the site, if the return becomes 200%. Talk about unsustainable!

TLDR: The site is expected to lose in the long term, by quite a large amount.

MartinL

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

I'm confused. Is BitFlipy truly operating with a negative expected value and planning on operating with a neutral expected value later?

luckylucky

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

I saw this interesting, I'll make an account there and try to play

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

Quote from: Erza on November 10, 2016, 10:43:25 AM

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 09:20:52 AM

Quote from: Erza on November 09, 2016, 07:25:59 AM

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

Guys please calm down.

110% win means that you exactly make 2.1x on your bet amount, that IS NOT 90% house edge...

Also max bet is now set to 100 mBTC (0.1 BTC) according to our max bankroll. Max bet is always far away under the bankroll so to avoid extreme bankruptcy.

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with. I'm not here to scam anyone (I won't ruin my reputation) and I'm ready to pay every win. If the game will make my bankroll vanish I will accept it as this is a bet also for me.

Hope you have fun and keep posting your feedback (contructive ones preferred please.)

So how can we know that you wont scam us? Any proof of your bankroll on cold storage that will pay us? 1-2 btc wont be enough as your cold storage as i know because you never know when or how much people will come though.

Btw is there anyway that we can check the provably fair system? 50/50 chance to get 110%? Dont get it on my mind though

Bitflipy is provably fair with seeds verification. Actual bankroll is 50 BTC and max bet is 0.1 BTC .

Can you give us the proof that you hold 50 btc on your cold storage? How can we know that you really have this huge amount of btc without any proof? And can you still explain about 50/50 chance to get 110% payout? doesnt make sense though

Will post screenshot or sign message asap.

The 2.1x payout is a starting promotion. I was thinking about reducing to 2x later on when the business is estabilished.

Erza

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1000

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 09:20:52 AM

Quote from: Erza on November 09, 2016, 07:25:59 AM

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

Guys please calm down.

110% win means that you exactly make 2.1x on your bet amount, that IS NOT 90% house edge...

Also max bet is now set to 100 mBTC (0.1 BTC) according to our max bankroll. Max bet is always far away under the bankroll so to avoid extreme bankruptcy.

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with. I'm not here to scam anyone (I won't ruin my reputation) and I'm ready to pay every win. If the game will make my bankroll vanish I will accept it as this is a bet also for me.

Hope you have fun and keep posting your feedback (contructive ones preferred please.)

So how can we know that you wont scam us? Any proof of your bankroll on cold storage that will pay us? 1-2 btc wont be enough as your cold storage as i know because you never know when or how much people will come though.

Btw is there anyway that we can check the provably fair system? 50/50 chance to get 110%? Dont get it on my mind though

Bitflipy is provably fair with seeds verification. Actual bankroll is 50 BTC and max bet is 0.1 BTC .

Can you give us the proof that you hold 50 btc on your cold storage? How can we know that you really have this huge amount of btc without any proof? And can you still explain about 50/50 chance to get 110% payout? doesnt make sense though

Magisterek

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 501

Things broke at our end, try another time.

10x0.0011mBTC=0.0110mBTC, where is my 100 sato?

btcforchild

member

Activity: 122

Merit: 10

lol, I finally found the game head and tail using bitcoin payments, a good idea for a game that a lot of boring now like to roll the dice BTCBTCBTC

socal

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

You have a beautiful site up here but the betting method which you promote is the most prone to fraud one as seen by the defunct payment processors like liberty reserve (LR) and egold.
Try and include more bets in order for your website to have more exposure.

DarkStar_

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 3284

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

Also max bet is now set to 100 mBTC (0.1 BTC) according to our max bankroll. Max bet is always far away under the bankroll so to avoid extreme bankruptcy.

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with. I'm not here to scam anyone (I won't ruin my reputation) and I'm ready to pay every win. If the game will make my bankroll vanish I will accept it as this is a bet also for me.

Why not just gamble yourself? You can easily have a -1% EV on any dice site, or create your own moneypot app with a 5% edge to simulate the same -5% EV, while still making a 2.5% cashback on every bet. What is your bankroll, and can you sign a message with your cold storage, proving you are solvent?

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 12:45:54 PM

Any other game like this will payout 1.98x at max for a 50% win probability. So far Bitflipy.com is much more profitable than any other coin flipper out there.

Any other game probably has legit owners that operate for a profit, and therefore less likely to run.

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

Quote from: MafiaCoin on November 09, 2016, 10:59:15 AM

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 10:39:23 AM

So where is the problem sorry? Are you just fudding or what? If you are not ok with my game you can not use it.

The game is provably fair and this is what you should care of as user.

if really head-tail need set win 180-190% and players will not afraid it..
because high rate x2.1 like scam ( not mean your game)..

Any other game like this will payout 1.98x at max for a 50% win probability. So far Bitflipy.com is much more profitable than any other coin flipper out there.

MafiaCoin

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 10:39:23 AM

So where is the problem sorry? Are you just fudding or what? If you are not ok with my game you can not use it.

The game is provably fair and this is what you should care of as user.

if really head-tail need set win 180-190% and players will not afraid it..
because high rate x2.1 like scam ( not mean your game)..

CryptoGore

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Bitflipy.com - $$_Flip your lucky coin_$$

So where is the problem sorry? Are you just fudding or what? If you are not ok with my game you can not use it.

The game is provably fair and this is what you should care of as user.

MafiaCoin

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 09:34:36 AM

Quote from: MafiaCoin on November 09, 2016, 08:05:41 AM

Quote from: CryptoGore on November 09, 2016, 06:59:56 AM

Guys please calm down.

110% win means that you exactly make 2.1x on your bet amount, that IS NOT 90% house edge...

Also max bet is now set to 100 mBTC (0.1 BTC) according to our max bankroll. Max bet is always far away under the bankroll so to avoid extreme bankruptcy.

I know this is a big % of win profit and maybe it could be disadvantage for the house, but this should be an incentive for users to play with. I'm not here to scam anyone (I won't ruin my reputation) and I'm ready to pay every win. If the game will make my bankroll vanish I will accept it as this is a bet also for me.

Hope you have fun and keep posting your feedback (contructive ones preferred please.)

If players win and get 110%, you wrote wrong. It's return 210%.
2.1x for chance 50/50 not really!

Example:

Because if total bets 1000.
Wins 500 and lose 500 bets.
Wins bets 500x2.1=1050..

Your profit total bets - wins=1000-1050=-50

Do you really lost money? Or chance to win not 50/50.

Having a 50% win chance doesn't mean that on 100 bets you win 50 times for sure.

Please read more about indipendent probability math.

Let HnHn be the indexed event of getting a head on the nthnth flip.

Given an unbiased coin, P(H1)=P(H2)=12P(H1)=P(H2)=12

These events are independent so P(H1∩H2)=P(H1)×P(H2)P(H1∩H2)=P(H1)×P(H2). The outcome of one coin toss does not influence then outcome of the other.

You can learn more about statistics probability calculation here https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html or in any math book.

Really?

100 bets get average 50 wins.. 45-55.
for long period value limit to really 50/50.
for 1000 bets average 490-510 wins...
Please learn statistics probability

do you read your link https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html

Suppose you ask a subject to guess, before it is flipped, whether a coin will land with heads or tails up. Assuming the coin is fair (has the same probability of heads and tails), the chance of guessing correctly is 50%, so you'd expect half the guesses to be correct and half to be wrong. So, if we ask the subject to guess heads or tails for each of 100 coin flips, we'd expect about 50 of the guesses to be correct. Suppose a new subject walks into the lab and manages to guess heads or tails correctly for 60 out of 100 tosses. Evidence of precognition, or perhaps the subject's possessing a telekinetic power which causes the coin to land with the guessed face up? Well,…no. In all likelihood, we've observed nothing more than good luck. The probability of 60 correct guesses out of 100 is about 2.8%, which means that if we do a large number of experiments flipping 100 coins, about every 35 experiments we can expect a score of 60 or better, purely due to chance.

Topic: WEBSITE SOLD - page 2. (Read 2570 times)