Jup. One of the many long-term momentum signals that just flipped. Some fired a bit earlier (*wink*), some a bit later into the rise, but they flipped. Always a chance it's a false breakout of course, but based on how they performed in the past, the interpretation is that the mid-term bottom is in at 275.
You think we'll go below 400 ever again?
Below 400 as in something like 390, maybe 380: possible. A
really painful drop, say, low 300s: I have no idea (no tradeable idea, at least). Ask the EW guys, they like to answer stuff like that
In very vague terms, I can see the following scenarios: we are leaving the "local" (i.e. July/August to now) bear market, without revisiting where we started (sub-400), or we can leave it, but see one more serious dip (possibly all the way to 300). Or, of course, we could also fail to leave it and make a new low before getting to, say, 500 even - but that possibility I consider rather unlikely as of today. Plus, the first two scenarios above each combine with the outcome of the "global" bear market (since December 2013): either the long-term trend is indeed up from now on (until it reaches a new ATH), or the rally goes on for a while, but turns sour before a new ATH (e.g. the June/July picture).