TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side

notme

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 15, 2013, 02:55:44 PM

Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

Short term trading would be much easier if we didn't need sleep. But in light of the reality of my human form, and the fact I don't want to spend all day on the computer, I trade on longer time frames Tongue

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vokain

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to each their own!

Tzupy

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Since some post were about me, let me clarify some aspects: I can make a decent profit if there's at least 3% difference between two local
minimums / maximums, considering a 0.8% (2x 0.4%) commission and adequate volume (which has been a problem lately on Gox).
But my biggest problem is catching the peaks and bottoms while I am not sleeping, because guessing the precise values for the peaks and
bottoms is bloody difficult for me (to place an order overnight). I moved to Gox from Bitstamp because of the higher volumes, but in the
meantime that advantage of Gox has diminished. I also can't do delayed arbitrage anymore (obviously), so I might move back to Bitstamp.
It was easy to reach their 0.5% (2x 0.25%) commission, on Gox to reach 0.6% (2x 0.3%) I'd have to almost double my trades, can't do that yet.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 02:21:47 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:20:41 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 02:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Bitstamp has similar fees.

That's why I love btc-e.

vokain

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these people trying to make money off wiggles should just look into being a local btc dealer :p

notme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:20:41 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 02:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Bitstamp has similar fees.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 02:18:24 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

The solution is not to mtgox.

Anyway the 2% are just supposed a minimal profit target, the average is much higher since if a trade goes for you and your target isn't just gain based but also volume/time based.
Of course it depends on the general strategy, most traditional TA doesn't work with that, that is right.

But then most traditional TA doesn't work for me neither on a longer scale.

notme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 02:11:53 PM

Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

If you manage to trade a $50 million a month and have the lowest fee, you still need a 58% success rate to break even. (Assuming a tight stop, which Gox doesn't provide and that connection issues at times of high volume can fuck up if you have a script to do it for you).

ElectricMucus

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Whoever pays 0.6% gox commision isn't really going to cut it yes.

But duh! Wink

notme

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 01:51:57 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 04:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

Exactly, he will either figure that out or go broke and disappear.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 15, 2013, 01:55:39 PM

1.02^100=7.245

Okay, let's take a 2% movement. First, we subtract 0.6% commission from both sides of the trade. Now we have a 0.8% movement. Let's assume for a second he calls 100 right in a row:
1.008^100 = 2.21847

Not bad. Now let's assume he takes a loss on 1/3 of his trades instead of being perfect.

1.008^67*1.008^-33=1.311167

31% is still decent, depending on the time frame.

But wait, that is wrong because you don't lose 0.8% when it goes against you. You lose the commission too, so you lose the full 2%.

Let's try 1/3 failure again.

1.008^67*1.02^-33=0.88726

Well shit.

What if he is 70% successful?

1.008^70*1.02^-30=0.964344249

Damn. Maybe if he is right 3/4 of the time he can turn a profit.

1.008^75*1.02^-25=1.107989421928713

Yay!

But can he beat 72% correct that is needed to break even?

And what happens if a big move happens in the wrong direction because the short term indicators are still indicating the correction when it ends and the next large major wave up/down happens?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 01:51:57 PM

Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 04:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

1.02^100=7.245

vokain

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Quote from: notme on August 15, 2013, 01:35:22 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 04:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

hehe I never even minded the tiny wiggles. Commissions + risk cost take all the 'profit' out of $2-4 movements that the indicators call out at that time layer.

notme

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Quote from: vokain on August 15, 2013, 04:32:35 AM

that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy's just been catching a lot of flak lately because he is always talking about tiny wiggles and most people have a longer term mindset.

Hyena

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In 10 day charts the pSARs don't have much meaning in our ultra volatile market. In 5 months chart the current price has to drop down to 100$ in mtGox for the pSAR to flip again. That may or may not happen but this topic wouldn't make any sense if we updated it so often as the 10 days chart would suggest Cheesy

EDIT:
Also, the price is still on the upper side of the Bollinger Band which means that this is indeed an uptrend that we are having currently Cheesy

and it can continue as long as the price stays in the upper side of the band (somehow obvious but still worth mentioning).

vokain

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that's all i wanted to see tzupy, something more specific than just "short term indicators are down," because anyone can say that and without providing examples/evidence, it can be misleading to some folks. I'm sorry if you took my reply with too much malice.

Tzupy

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I made no claim, just acknowledged the facts. If you look at the 10 days chart (short term), you should understand.
I agreed with you that long term (2-3 months), it looks up, so you don't have a valid reason to get pissed off at me.

vokain

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 15, 2013, 03:14:58 AM

Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

Really. Firstly, what's your definition of short term?
And then, can you please sufficiently elaborate on your claim? Otherwise it's just noise amongst the other guys (more often than not with relatively new accounts) doing the exact same thing you're doing.

Tzupy

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Long term yes, but short term is a different story, it points downwards, together with other indicators.

vokain

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Hyena

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Seems that this topic is appropriate again Cheesy

let's see if we can get 2 more dots supporting the new uptrend and then it might be some serious indicator for bulls. However, it can also be the case that from now on bitcoin's price goes sideways and therefore pSAR isn't much of a use.

Topic: TIME TO BUY! Parabolic SAR just flipped the side (Read 7147 times)