About the "fresh money" issue:
All this does is that people will have less fiat money to trade with. That doesn't automatically make the price go down.
There might be a few nervous people selling off, but I wouldn't call it a crash.
I personally think that the BTC price is getting more & more stable everyday.
Topic: Welcome to Bitcoin Black Friday (Read 1963 times)
The average person understands physical theft though. They know how to safeguard a wallet and keep valuables locked up into a safe. There are a lot more people who still don't know not to click on suspicious links and keep their computers free from spyware and viruses. Children and the elderly are especially vulnerable. My 10 year old is always clicking on links, despite our repeated warnings not to install any software without asking us. It seems like every few months or so, we're cleaning out her computer getting rid of junk that she shouldn't have installed.
It is truly amazing how many adults don't know not to click on strange links, especially those received in an email from a stranger.
Following the June 2011 Mt. Gox "incident", I, along with everyone else who had an email address registered with the exchange, received an email from a "concerned citizen" urging a movement away from Mt. Gox and increased usage of other exchanges and they included a link to the Exchanges category on my site, The Bitcoin List, which I had just launched. I went from getting less than 50 pageviews a day to 2,265 the day that email went out and almost 4,000 more over the next few days.
I was shocked. I thought it was strange and carefully avoided clicking that link and it was my site! I still shake my head when I think about it.
We haven't witnessed the real crash, yet.
Nope, but it's comming.
Was quite supprised at how high it rebounded after hitting 80. ATM its a greater fool game.
We haven't witnessed the real crash, yet.
The average person understands physical theft though. They know how to safeguard a wallet and keep valuables locked up into a safe. There are a lot more people who still don't know not to click on suspicious links and keep their computers free from spyware and viruses. Children and the elderly are especially vulnerable. My 10 year old is always clicking on links, despite our repeated warnings not to install any software without asking us. It seems like every few months or so, we're cleaning out her computer getting rid of junk that she shouldn't have installed.
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I agree with Alpaca John. I don't think most consumers rely on banks or credit card companies to protect them from businesses with shoddy products or poor customer service.
I guess you are right. It would depend on the merchant to right any wrongs, but if they don't, I just don't see any other safety net. What if your BitCoin wallet was compromised and someone purchased a lot of random services, or gambled it all away. Would it be up to the BitCoin wallet provider to correct this? The merchant? Or is it a "sorry about your luck!"? This is what I mean by the general population will not be so keen to the idea.
Again, using cash as an analogy offers solutions (albeit unsatisfactory). If your wallet get stolen out of your pocket, how would you expect to get it back? The fairest course of action would be to find the thief and retrieve it or have him repay you if he's already spent the money. While there may be ways to utilize the blockchain to help identify thieves or trace transactions after someone hat attempted to cover their tracks, no one should assume it is built into the system.
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I agree with Alpaca John. I don't think most consumers rely on banks or credit card companies to protect them from businesses with shoddy products or poor customer service.
I guess you are right. It would depend on the merchant to right any wrongs, but if they don't, I just don't see any other safety net. What if your BitCoin wallet was compromised and someone purchased a lot of random services, or gambled it all away. Would it be up to the BitCoin wallet provider to correct this? The merchant? Or is it a "sorry about your luck!"? This is what I mean by the general population will not be so keen to the idea.
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Crypto currencies are still in their infancy. When the tech barrier for entry & use drops to the point where they become easy to use for the average consumer their value will explode.
In order for this to happen, there has to be some kind of regulation and rules. If the average Joe purchases an item with BitCoin and the item that arrives is broken, there is no way to file a claim in any way. The average Joe will want someone to go to in times like this. BitCoin being one way only, is a big problem for the average user, and scares them.
Which is also the reason cash has never worked. /sarcasm
I agree with Alpaca John. I don't think most consumers rely on banks or credit card companies to protect them from businesses with shoddy products or poor customer service. They might eventually try to have a charge reversed or declined but many will exhaust other avenues first, especially if the merchant they bought from is a large, well known entity with an historically long record of providing goods or services.
The most unsatisfactory characteristic, IMHO, of the BTC economy is that it's still too new to tell who is reliable and who isn't. Only time will tell.
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Crypto currencies are still in their infancy. When the tech barrier for entry & use drops to the point where they become easy to use for the average consumer their value will explode.
In order for this to happen, there has to be some kind of regulation and rules. If the average Joe purchases an item with BitCoin and the item that arrives is broken, there is no way to file a claim in any way. The average Joe will want someone to go to in times like this. BitCoin being one way only, is a big problem for the average user, and scares them.
Which is also the reason cash has never worked. /sarcasm
Black Friday is awesome, especially when followed by bounce Monday/ Tuesday/ Wednesday etc!!!
You just have to ensure you buy in on Black Friday.
You just have to ensure you buy in on Black Friday.
I'd still watch out for the whiplash...
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Crypto currencies are still in their infancy. When the tech barrier for entry & use drops to the point where they become easy to use for the average consumer their value will explode.
In order for this to happen, there has to be some kind of regulation and rules. If the average Joe purchases an item with BitCoin and the item that arrives is broken, there is no way to file a claim in any way. The average Joe will want someone to go to in times like this. BitCoin being one way only, is a big problem for the average user, and scares them.
I personally believe that in order for BTC to succeed as a decentralized currency, the 51% rule should apply to what percentage of bitcoin transactions can be processed by each exchange. With Mt. Gox reportedly handling 63% they play too much of a vital role in the price.
There's nothing stopping people just voting with their feet and using other exchanges like bitstamp. MtGox only has go much power because people have been herding towards them like sheep.
Any prediction without presenting reasoning is worthless. Always justify your predictions on technical or fundamental grounds.
Well, not much technicality to BTC, at least not for the big swings. None of them ever related to market requirements, instead all tied down to Mt Gox's DDOS, lawsuits and other fundamental factors.
Any prediction without presenting reasoning is worthless. Always justify your predictions on technical or fundamental grounds.
Mt Gox has been an issue for me since I came aboard
This may actually turn out to be a good thing.
Clearly MT. Gox has too much impact on bitcoin prices, to a point where it can bring about its demise even. So hopefully BTC will survive this latest crash and consumer confidence in Mt. Gox will be affected enough for them to lose a bunch of customers to other exchanges.
I personally believe that in order for BTC to succeed as a decentralized currency, the 51% rule should apply to what percentage of bitcoin transactions can be processed by each exchange. With Mt. Gox reportedly handling 63% they play too much of a vital role in the price.
Clearly MT. Gox has too much impact on bitcoin prices, to a point where it can bring about its demise even. So hopefully BTC will survive this latest crash and consumer confidence in Mt. Gox will be affected enough for them to lose a bunch of customers to other exchanges.
I personally believe that in order for BTC to succeed as a decentralized currency, the 51% rule should apply to what percentage of bitcoin transactions can be processed by each exchange. With Mt. Gox reportedly handling 63% they play too much of a vital role in the price.
I think it will down to $15 US per btc by monday
Just a small downtrend. It will rise soon! 
The problem is that usually it's necessary fresh money to make the price of an asset to go up. As the price goes up, it's necessary more and more money to buy the asset at these higher prices. But if the banks are closed, it's impossible to get in fresh money. However, probably there is already enough money in the bitcoin system to make the price go up, since the price has already been much higher than the current one. Of course, this math can be complicated by the fact that many hoarders might now sell because they are scared.
You might be correct in that there may be enough fiat in the system to drive prices up if there are the right signals. But I think that a lot of the "old money" might be at the fence.
Banks are closed during bank holidays, including the one Mt. Gox uses to accept, transfer, and send your fiat. Mt. Gox is not a bank but they still have to use one to deal with fiat.
In other words, you can use Mt. Gox for trading 24/7, but if your cash is on its way in or out, you're subject to bankers' hours.
I can't see how that's a big problem. People trading on Gox are used to bank delays.
It takes 1 day+ for a bank transfer, right?
How will 2 extra days have such a huge impact?
Because there are no new money coming inn, while you can still move in BTC. Every day 3600 BTC is mined, and some of that will find its way to MtFGox.
At the same time BTC prices are beeing pushed down, and a lot of people are eager to sell while prices are still up.
If the markets were more stable, it would be less of an issue, but apparently BTC tend to go up and then dip during the weekend.
I am pretty fresh at this, but AFAIK during the weekend regular folks have time to sit down with their computer and buy with the fiat they have deposited, and some of them want to sell out before next week starts as they cannot follow the market and feel safer in FIAT. Also there are miners that sell as soon as they have coin at whatever price they get in the market at the time, this happens all of the week. The result is that there is less FIAT in the system(downwards pressure) before monday when there is a backlog of FIAt that comes and gives more upward pressure.
These effects may not be that big at a regular weekend, but this is not a regular weekend.
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