Topic: We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know? - page 2. (Read 5644 times)

I'm from the FUTURE.....

I don't know what I should tell you. So I will just say, yes you are right and I am wrong.  I guess you know better then me, price should be around $13-14. Ignorance is a bliss.

As I understand it a pension requires working at the same company for a very, very long time.  That negates the ability to shop around if you're valuable and leaves you vulnerable to layoffs if you are not.  In my industry staying at one job for over 2 years results in an ever increasing earnings hit, and being independent can more than double earnings.

Pension plans are managed by the exact same people managing 401ks.  They're typically invested in the same stocks, bonds, etc as other mutual funds focusing on low risk and asset preservation over growth.

And finally, most of my 401ks have been rolled over into IRAs at an institution where I can trade the funds myself.

Ugh, pensions and unions.  Blegh, ugh, blegh.  Talk about an economy killer.

Anyway, let me get this straight.  Relying on a 401k that you can spread across MANY different mutual funds, depending on their performance, thus encouraging the people who are managing your money to make sure it performs well, is worse than putting all your eggs in one basket via a pension?  What happens if the company who is handing out the pension goes under?  Then you have NOTHING.

Sorry for being "completely ignorant", but I would 10 times rather have a 401k than rely on ANY company to still be around to give me a pension 40 years from now.

compared to a pension, a 401k/roth ira is a scam. under ronald reagan nearly every worker had a pension. reagan and the wall street guys changed that. now less than 15% of workers have a pension and are stuck with someone else managing their entire livelihood... bring back the pension. but that will only happen with increased union membership and as long as republicans and center/right democrats are in office there wont be more pensions or unions there will be less stomped out 1 by 1. my grandparents wouldnt be alive without their pensions or would probably be eating dog food.


no sane person would  pick a 401k over a pension without being completely ignorant. You can have money for the rest of your life at a set ammount that only you manage, or you cvan have money locked away that you cant ever control...

Most people have no idea what they are investing in with their 401k. A guy in suit at work handed them a form and they picked a few menu items.  I'm not saying that a 401k has no merit as an investment vehicle, but if you don't know what specific companies your managers are investing your money in then don't fool yourself into thinking your Gordon Gecko.

"L^{ooks like Bitcoin is blasting off again!" - MtGoX}

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...

Well, why not keep some USD on mtgox balance, just in case?

Right, if you think that the amount of peoples money invested in bitcoins has grown by less than 50% during that last half a year, which would be amazingly stupid to assume

Satoshi's "stash" is getting bigger and bigger. Its inflation seems to be on par with the inflation of the user base.

skyhigh, the reason I'm saying the issue is minor is that while there has been 50%+ inflation, we've had a 1000%+ inflation of new Bitcoin adopters. There is no reason to be so skeptical as to assume we won't have growth during the next 6 months for example. With the adoption growth we've had, the price is rightfully much higher than it was in the past. How high it's "supposed to be" no one knows, it's obvious it isn't $1 or $30 but something in between.

The price should be around $13-$14 right now to sustain the level of growth we've had so far but clearly we're in a slump with low adoption rates and a ton of bad news. So, basically the main factor to take into account regarding inflation is the adoption rate and the other factor is how much miners believe in Bitcoin or how much they can afford to save.

In the current situation I'd say the price is not going to go below $9, perhaps not even below $10. More bad news is required for another slump like that. The demand for cheap coins at the $9-$11 range is quite decent and many think that price is lowish for selling.

Where it will go from here depends on many things, as I already said in my last post. It might stay here for a while but I don't think so. With all the bad news people will show strong support for good news if they come and if good news come, there will at least be a small rally. With lots of good news we will see a very strong rally. But that's all speculation, we might see quiet stagnation and more occasional bad news and the price will not go up, might even go down.

It's also true that for the functionality of Bitcoin it doesn't matter what the price is, but I personally care about Bitcoin in many different ways, as a miner, as an investor, as a supporter and in the future probably as a merchant as well. For some of my interests the price does matter.

You two missing the point that this 7200 coins per day is basically bitcoins inflation right now. Whole network will only have 7 million coins next week, and we are producing 7200 per day, every day. That my friends is the current inflation. Basic math tells you that 7200 / 7.000,000  gets you 0.1% inflation PER DAY. It doesn't really matter how many coins miners try to sell on regular basis. What matters is that bitcoins are diluting 0.1% per day or over 50% in the period of one single year.

All this early inflation is neatly hidden from regular people who don't think about every detail. Most of the them joined during or after we had a price boom from April $1 to June $30+ and are now thinking bitcoin has to be worth more somehow. Bitcoin isn't an investment like so many thought. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100. People greed wants it to be worth more in fiat cash. You can only hope Satoshi doesn't start selling his 1.500,000+ coin stash.  

7200 new coins per day is far from a minor thing. It's a huge thing, 50+% inflation in the last 365 days. There is no reason right now that with 50% inflation in the last year price would stay at the current levels.

I'm a miner (not a minor) and I am not selling any of my BitCoins spoils.  In fact I am thinking about buying more, especially if they are sub $9.00. 

Exactly. The whole issue of 7200 new coins every day is minor as long as there are enough miners who believe in a positive future for Bitcoin. The severity of the issue entirely depends on that.

There are miners who don't sell almost any coins because they believe in a higher future value and don't need the USD right now. Then there is a large group of miners who sell some because they want to get their investment back gradually but they also believe in Bitcoin so they will save a portion. I'm one of those miners, following a 50/50 cashout/save plan. Currently I'm not doing any trades though because I think the price is low and will come up.

The situation right now is that there have been a steady flow of bad news and problems related to Bitcoin-services which has pretty much killed all attempts at a rally. Added, the euro-players have a problem getting money to buy coins, I personally know some people who would buy but can't yet. Also, it's still vacation season and there has been a lack of hype for Bitcoin so that slows everything down as well.

It's also important to remember that 7200 coins is a marginal part of every day Bitcoin transfers. Very marginal. And as I already explained, not even close to all of those coins are sold as they are mined. It's hard to estimate how much is but I don't think it's even 50%, probably less.

When more miners start to be skeptical about the long-term prospects then there is reason to worry. For me personally a key issue right now as an euro-player is the comeback of reliable sepa-transfers across the board. That would be a very positive sign. Further serious problems with european banks, however, would be a really bad thing and my confidence about the whole thing would go way down.

The thing is, Bitcoin as a currency, fundamentally, is rock solid still. But at this stage of development it is entirely dependent on the ability of easy transfer to USD/EUR. That is because it's not a universal currency and is mostly used as a payment method only. At this stage painless transfers are crucial.

That being said, my prediction regarding the price of BTC depends on what will happen. If there is continued bad news we might see a further crash but if things start getting better; euro transfers back, new bitcoin client with encryption, more services and products available for bitcoins (this is happening, more services come online every day and more stuff becomes available for coins), then we will see a gradual price increase, maybe a new speculation bubble if hype builds up.

You haven't accounted for miners who never intend to sell for USD more than they have to to pay their bills.

And this is life's bear that is coming to bite them in the ass...

I'm with you OP, I sold at $10.80, and fully expect prices to never drop below $10 again in my lifetime.  Setting my expectations in this fashion is a great coping mechanism in case prices drop, which would be a welcome surprise.  Expectations are a bitch; managing them is the secret to happiness.

On the plus side, if prices rise, I've given money to my fellow hackers and other early adopters to support them in their efforts to create this currency system, which in my value system, is better than giving it to the Wall Street crowd.  And though the Venn diagram of Wall Streeters and bitcoiners overlaps, I think it's only by a tiny bit.

I'ts obvious that many here are new to investing in general.  Real investing is 80% homework and 20% balls. You should have a plan with contingencies and the courage to follow through long term. Panic selling is not a plan it's an emotional response to a math problem.
Many investors behave this way. Once you understand that those people can be manipulated into buying or selling you have become an investor.
P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Yep. Mhm. Indeed.