this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.
You're a go player. Please read what you are writing there again and re-think it. Come on, you know this is not how things work. When you play, do you think about what the moves from the current game's past tell you about the situation, or about the situation and possible future moves?
Prices don't move by some magical information encoded into past prices. The price has no opinion, and also isn't something that actually moves. It's two people deciding to exchange something, affected by a lot of things that do not necessarily relate to past trades on the same market.
I do chartism sometimes, and I admit it. But I would never do so without having an off-market model to back it up. I have heard hundreds of chartist theories, all but a single one turned out bad, and the remaining one is only valid in bubble context, plus I have no idea just how useful it is. Throwing in magic words without
any information on the market context, model, reasoning why it should apply this very moment is nonsensical! If that works just in the slightest, write a bot and get rich without lifting a finger!
No offense really... but be a little careful with the voodoo. It's not about whether it's right this time or last time or in some context, it's about drawing all the attention toward trying to decode information that just isn't there.
TL;DR: Chartism that needs no context is fishy, check the reasoning.
i am a go player. and the stones on the board contain all of the information i need to determine where is best to play next.
i am not really sure about what you mean by 'chartism that needs no context', but using my chart voodoo has yielded around 50% returns on my investment, just through swing trading at MtGox, just since New Year's. my latest prediction, made just after the giant overnight dump, that we would go no lower than $6, and that the uptrend will continue, has not be proven wrong yet. it is not as if the charts predict the prices, but rather one might get a good sense of where the price could be going by analyzing the data described by the charts. if the MACD is losing momentum, and the RSI, William's %R, and Money Flow are all overbought, then it's likely we are in for a reversal. these kinds of analyses consist of looking at the price and volume data that exists in the single green line on MtGox live, but looking at it through a different lens. all of the charts i use are simple oscillators and such that respond to price and volume, which make up the true 'data base' of a market, and it is price and volume that inform the moves of traders anyway, the same way the configuration of stones on a go board informs each player's very next move.
there is no data in the charts that doesn't exist in the price and volume data, but this does not invalidate their usefulness. graphic representation is one of the best ways to wrap one's head around numbers in the first place. how big is 1,000,000,000 compared to 1,000? you can't fathom such a relationship without graphic representation. as such, the charts visually communicate the relationship between patterns between price and volume in a way that we simply cannot grasp by looking at raw price and volume data.
