We're all Schrödinger's cats in the short term

BitHodler

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Quote from: exstasie on September 17, 2018, 03:43:42 PM

Second off, how can this type of valuation be applied to BTC? Fundamental analysis on Bitcoin seems completely based on speculation to me. We have some metrics about current usage and the opinions of various commentators, the media, traders and investors, but that doesn't tell us where the market is going. Whether you go by FA or TA in this market, we're all just speculating and extrapolating.

The past is the only way to somewhat understand what thrives this market and how likely or not likely it is to go through a seasonal run in the future. Guarantees don't exist here, but what else is there to fall back on.

Based on the past, we might be due for a run up in the coming month or so, and it seems that it's starting to pick up on social media as well. Not sure how effective that run will be with people expecting it, but we'll see what happens.

It won't wind me up, but certain people here can definitely use some positive vibes with how the bear market has done everything to test their patience to the maximum. Poor rookies.

exstasie

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Quote from: Theb on September 17, 2018, 12:33:27 PM

Quote from: rodalutor on September 17, 2018, 03:59:00 AM

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

Alright to some extent I can agree with you that technical analysis is somehow speculation but Fundamental analysis cannot be considered as speculation, FA is really a means of finding a hidden value of an asset which is covered with its market price. For example if a stock's Fair Value is 100$ and its current market value is 50$ just by buying it at 50$ you have the potential upside of 100% as it has the possibility of doubling your money based on its fair value which is computed to their financial performance, so you can technically call FA as basing it on factual data which is really not a mere speculation.

Okay, but first off, that fair value is based on a qualitative analysis that includes growth projections. There are always unforeseen circumstances that can change that. There are no "hard numbers" that allow you to buy at 50% value and immediately sell for 100%.

Second off, how can this type of valuation be applied to BTC? Fundamental analysis on Bitcoin seems completely based on speculation to me. We have some metrics about current usage and the opinions of various commentators, the media, traders and investors, but that doesn't tell us where the market is going. Whether you go by FA or TA in this market, we're all just speculating and extrapolating.

Theb

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Quote from: rodalutor on September 17, 2018, 03:59:00 AM

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

Alright to some extent I can agree with you that technical analysis is somehow speculation but Fundamental analysis cannot be considered as speculation, FA is really a means of finding a hidden value of an asset which is covered with its market price. For example if a stock's Fair Value is 100$ and its current market value is 50$ just by buying it at 50$ you have the potential upside of 100% as it has the possibility of doubling your money based on its fair value which is computed to their financial performance, so you can technically call FA as basing it on factual data which is really not a mere speculation.

StarofBTC

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

This is one applicable thing in any market and for what it is worth, even though the future is bright, the fact remains that anything that happens in between now and the future is not certain and all that would end up happening between this period will certainly affect the future in some way.

We are just like a puppet directed in the way the market tends to at this stage, as nothing is certain for anyone. All we can do at any point in time is to blend with the trend as much as we can.

rodalutor

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Quote from: Theb on September 16, 2018, 02:47:25 PM

OP I think you might just be complicating the word "Speculation" which is funny because you have posted this topic in the speculation section of the forum. You are correct because a lot of people are like you which are merely speculating that BTC will still go up in the future as they really trust it will but they don't back it up with either Fundamental or Technical Analysis of their own. They just rely that gut feeling they are having that BTC (or whatever they are holding) will still go up.

Fundamental and Technical Analysis still come firmly under speculation. Anything that is not based on fact is still speculating even if it is more of a calculated speculation than something purely borne out of instinct or hope.

Theb

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OP I think you might just be complicating the word "Speculation" which is funny because you have posted this topic in the speculation section of the forum. You are correct because a lot of people are like you which are merely speculating that BTC will still go up in the future as they really trust it will but they don't back it up with either Fundamental or Technical Analysis of their own. They just rely that gut feeling they are having that BTC (or whatever they are holding) will still go up.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 16, 2018, 02:14:08 PM

That's exactly the reason why Bitcoin is so volatile and why we have these big bull and bear markets - people bet money on and against Bitcoin (sometimes even the same people), but until we witness it succreding as a currency/asset/commodity, etc., both scenarios are possible. It's also kinda subjective - some people see that Bitcoin hasn't reached mass adoption yet and take it as a negative sign, others think that Bitcoin has already achieved a lot.

I put myself in the second camp. Let's make some comparisons.

The first consumer cell phones came out in the early 1980s. It's taken 35 years for cell phones to penetrate two thirds of the world population. It's expected that 36 percent will use a smartphone by 2018, up from about 10 percent in 2011.

So even the things we think of as ubiquitous have taken many years to reach mid-level adoption. And then we should consider that cell phone adoption rode on the back of landline users (and then smartphones were bootstrapped from cell phone users). Bitcoin couldn't draw on these established consumer bases. Its network was built from scratch. It's really amazing when you think about it.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 13, 2018, 02:19:35 PM

Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

i like that.

schrodinger's cat is a good reminder that as long as we continue to speculate about future mainstream adoption or institutional adoption, etc. that these things are mere possibilities. the event (eg mainstream adoption) hasn't occurred until it's actually occurred and the spectrum of possibilities collapses into one reality. until that day, we're still "in the box" so to speak, awaiting the result.

i'm a big believer in bitcoin, but i also believe that a number of things could still occur that results in the complete abandonment of it. Lips sealed

That's exactly the reason why Bitcoin is so volatile and why we have these big bull and bear markets - people bet money on and against Bitcoin (sometimes even the same people), but until we witness it succreding as a currency/asset/commodity, etc., both scenarios are possible. It's also kinda subjective - some people see that Bitcoin hasn't reached mass adoption yet and take it as a negative sign, others think that Bitcoin has already achieved a lot.

rodalutor

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on September 16, 2018, 03:53:38 AM

if you start thinking like that then everything else can be described the same way! we don't know what is going to happen in case of a lot of things, not just investments.

what we do is that we try our best to come up with the most accurate speculation and then constantly modify it as the market changes so that it remains the closest guess and so that we can be more successful.
at times the market becomes less predictable and sometimes more. and with it our guess becomes harder and easier receptively.

I think that the point is that for some people not knowing leads them to being closer to the most accurate speculation than if they constantly were aware of the price changes. Some people cannot handle the emotion of price changes and it clouds their judgment.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

Because you might be basing "success" on Bitcoin's price, and measuring it in how much in fiat you have made by holding it. If you are scared of "what the unknown future may hold", then sell now and don't look back. There will be more dips coming.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

if you start thinking like that then everything else can be described the same way! we don't know what is going to happen in case of a lot of things, not just investments.

what we do is that we try our best to come up with the most accurate speculation and then constantly modify it as the market changes so that it remains the closest guess and so that we can be more successful.
at times the market becomes less predictable and sometimes more. and with it our guess becomes harder and easier receptively.

el kaka22

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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 13, 2018, 02:19:35 PM

Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

i like that.

schrodinger's cat is a good reminder that as long as we continue to speculate about future mainstream adoption or institutional adoption, etc. that these things are mere possibilities. the event (eg mainstream adoption) hasn't occurred until it's actually occurred and the spectrum of possibilities collapses into one reality. until that day, we're still "in the box" so to speak, awaiting the result.

i'm a big believer in bitcoin, but i also believe that a number of things could still occur that results in the complete abandonment of it. Lips sealed

It is indeed a very good reminder and as much as we tend to anticipate for things and hope they actually become a reality, what would be eventually, will take place as it wants. It is life, no one can see the future and we are sometimes all just playing a wish game and sometimes getting lucky on those wishes, but luck is not something that do come around every time. Your last statement is absolutely the blunt truth and in as much as we can hope for a better future for bitcoin, that does not mean the worst can still not end up happening.

Everyone sure have a way to invest and what tickles them to invest but the fact remains that in any investment there will always be risk and opportunities, and as long as you cannot tell what the future holds, just do your own best and leave the rest for the future to decide.

rodalutor

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Thinking like that is a great thing for people who are looking to invest long time. Until you check on your investment it is neither good nor bad. In theory you could say the same for when you're going to cash out or not. Until you sell your coins it is neither a good nor a bad investment.

cellard

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 13, 2018, 02:19:35 PM

Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

i like that.

schrodinger's cat is a good reminder that as long as we continue to speculate about future mainstream adoption or institutional adoption, etc. that these things are mere possibilities. the event (eg mainstream adoption) hasn't occurred until it's actually occurred and the spectrum of possibilities collapses into one reality. until that day, we're still "in the box" so to speak, awaiting the result.

i'm a big believer in bitcoin, but i also believe that a number of things could still occur that results in the complete abandonment of it. Lips sealed

Actually I think this is somewhere along the lines of the reflexivity theory by George Soros influence by Karl Popper in which market participants are constantly wrong about the price and they are either very divergent from objective true price or close to it:

Quote

My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck. It has also enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others. This has changed my own evaluation and that of many others. My philosophy is no longer a personal matter; it deserves to be taken seriously as a possible contribution to our understanding of reality. ~ George Soros (via FT)

I like this quote too:

Quote

Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. This is the principle of fallibility. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times it is quite pronounced.

Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, a boom-bust process is set in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, and if it is strong enough to survive these tests, both the trend and the misconception will be reinforced.

I recommend the book "The Alchemy of Finance". It is not guarantee you will become rich after reading it... but its nonetheless interesting.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on September 12, 2018, 02:57:45 AM

We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

i like that.

schrodinger's cat is a good reminder that as long as we continue to speculate about future mainstream adoption or institutional adoption, etc. that these things are mere possibilities. the event (eg mainstream adoption) hasn't occurred until it's actually occurred and the spectrum of possibilities collapses into one reality. until that day, we're still "in the box" so to speak, awaiting the result.

i'm a big believer in bitcoin, but i also believe that a number of things could still occur that results in the complete abandonment of it. Lips sealed

BitHodler

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Quote from: naidray on September 13, 2018, 12:03:19 PM

It is hard to predict any market at all and when it comes to the market, the only thing we can do is to look at what the charts are saying and then act accordingly.

Common sense is sufficient mostly. People's problem is that they constantly try to time the market, which has been proven to be the wrong way to participate in every actively traded market.

To buy the average of the market the best thing to do is to dollar cost average on a monthly or biweekly basis. If you do that with 5-10% of your monthly income there is less reason to stress out. I do that too and it works well.

If you don't touch your savings you'll see that the market's fluctuations in the short term are nothing more than noise. Saving up money takes years while losing it just takes a couple of months.

naidray

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Quote from: sheenshane on September 12, 2018, 03:29:45 AM

It's really hard to predict on what possible happen to bitcoin or the entire cryptocurrencies, as long as there are so many investors who still believed in bitcoin I can assure that it still exists on the market. But those doubtful people I'm sure right now they ignore bitcoin to invest instead. But one thing that for sure they had this big question on everyone’s lips, "what will these coins be worth in the future?". We all don't know what's in the future so, let's enjoy as what had bitcoin now.

It is hard to predict any market at all and when it comes to the market, the only thing we can do is to look at what the charts are saying and then act accordingly. Those who feel they can predict the future of the market are certainly jokers, because no one can. Apparently, they just seem to state what they feel the market should behave like in the short term and then hope it gets to be that. Unless they just get lucky, that would end up a rubbish prediction at the end of the day.

YuginKadoya

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Any indicator for the price to sway is a time to really do something, But yes it is very difficult to really know when it can happen, At times like many investors just make a decision to Hodl for long period and look at their stored bitcoin on the many years to come which is great and at the same time a waste of time, Because a long term holding can be great if you don't really need the money and you are just treating this investment as a bank to save money for your future, But if you don't have any amount to spare then don't put all your money where you can not be so sure where this market is going.

davis196

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We are not Schrodinger cats,bitcoin/blockchain is the "cat in the box".We don't know what will happen to it in the future,does it have any intrinsic value?Is the box empty or we just believe so hard that there is a "cat" inside? Grin

cellard

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Indeed, sometimes you just have to avoid looking at the price for a while. By not knowing the price, you will avoid making stupid moves.

Just imagine that MtGox investors that bought in the 2013 peak at around $1200, decided to close the bitcoinwisdom.com tab and forget about it, and check 3 years later... exactly, they would be now cruising in easy mode as their entry point has become a dream entry point for these that did finally panic sell through the bear market or did not buy yet as I remember a lot of people were expecting lower prices which never came.

So in terms of pain, be ready to accept it and get through it, or just go the blindfolded, forget about bitcoin and check back a year or two later. If you aren't strongminded the market noise from the bear period will destroy your portfolio as you will be brainwashed into bitcoin being dead a million times.

Topic: We're all Schrödinger's cats in the short term (Read 373 times)