Topic: We're in a bubble - page 8. (Read 10338 times)

Dollface, be honest with us, but most importantly with yourself and acknowledge that you were wrong about ethereum. Are you capable of that ? I'll stop calling you dollface if you do that, it's just a honest thing to do. I don't like shitcoins either, but eth never was one. If your argument against it is "BUT DAO" or " OMG PREMINE" then there's no debate because that's stupid and you know it.

Word. I think this is not a bubble but more like a rapid increase which will stabilize rather than fall hard. Corrections will come for sure...

It took me some time, but I'm getting the feeling that I'm starting to get the picture.  Yes, we're in a bubble, but all of crypto is designed to be in a permanent bubble.  In other words, most crypto, and bitcoin as first, is essentially purely designed to be a highly speculative asset, and its real-world usage is absolutely of no significance in its price setting in the distant future.  And the reason for that is simple: the emission curve.  

Bitcoin is based upon a somewhat doubtful theory called "sound money theory", of gold bug/Austrian school origin.  Now, the sound money doctrine is not totally ridiculous, on the condition that it is applied to:
1) the *existing*, sole, currency in the economy
2) came from "long ago".

In other words, gold.

The basic tenet of sound money doctrine is that the ultimate bad, is seigniorage: being able to create monetary value out of thin air.  For their proponents, this was OF COURSE a monopoly, because it didn't occur to them that private persons could emit arbitrary quantities of non-covered money, and this money getting any value.  If I print my own dollar bills, and I would emit them with nothing against it, sound logic would say that nobody would give a shit.  So if we want the state NOT to obtain "value for nothing" by seigniorage, we should adhere to a kind of money of which none can be produced: a collectible.

The problems with the corruption of seigniorage are so problematic by the proponents of sound money, that they want it not to be possible.

However, who says collectible, says price fluctuations.   Sound money doesn't have a stable price, because it depends on the economy it buys, and the spending mood of people.  So sound money is volatile.  As such, keeping sound money is speculative, and using sound money has a volatility risk.
 If one starts with collectibles of low value, moreover they become collector items with enormous speculative value.  If they are not exclusive money, they are not necessarily spend, and they will act more and more as "rare paintings", and less and less as "dollar bills".  This is why sound money doctrine is not "sound" if the currency under consideration doesn't have the currency monopoly.

This is in contrast to ideal money - of John Forbes Nash signature - that tries to keep its value as constant as possible, so that there cannot be any speculation, and there is no volatility risk: it is what makes money as a currency fluid.  An approximation is slightly inflationary or deflationary money, with predictable inflation or deflation: asymptotic ideal money.

Bitcoin and many alt coins adhere to some sound money doctrine, but baffle on top of that, the basic rule of no seigniorage.  Indeed, bitcoins had/have to be made, alt coins had/have to be made.  So they ARE created.  Usually they ARE created when their creation is really cheap.  And when adoption occurs, their creation rate diminishes, to vanish, or to become very small, in the future.
As such they have HUGE seigniorage (for the early adopters).  But on top of that, they start with low value, and they pretend to get higher monetary value, so they become precious collector's items of high speculative value.

In other words, most crypto are designed to become highly speculative collector's items, not at all connected to any usage.  One could even say that the *less* they are used (spent), the higher is their speculative value because the rarer they get.   This is, I think, what we are witnessing: the total decoupling of any "reality of usage" of crypto, and its full transformation in a big speculator's casino.

In fact, they are now abstract betting tokens on speculator's clearing houses: the exchanges.  The actual block chain, usage, or technology doesn't matter AT ALL.  This is like the complex derivatives games that financial institutions played until it blowed in their face in 2007.  I find it ironic, if you know what is in the genesis block of bitcoin, but crypto is now totally a speculator's bar.  And if speculators have a lot of money to gamble, this can go VERY VERY high.  Like the derivatives market.  And has nothing to do with any working block chain or whatever.  You only need a token on an exchange.

If the efficient market hypothesis holds, moreover, then it should be totally impossible to predict any long term behaviour of any coin (even though the total market may have a steady trend).  The more improbable the token, the higher it could climb.  It should be entirely random, if enough capital flows in, because any clearly predictable trend will be smoothed out by smart traders taking full advantage of it.

Charlie Lee said it long time ago - digital currencies does not need gimmicks in order to succeed. They need usage. Yes, I know that more and more people are getting in and this probably can justify latest rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I'd say that Litecoin also deserve its price (and I believe it will go up even more), but thing is that Bitcoin's future is currently uncertain (giving the different camps of people who are up/against hard fork). Now is the time for unity, because 2013 - 2014 pump and dump will look like a joke. Probably a single negative news can make BTC to lose 25% of its value in a day.

how can you say that we are 100% in a bubble and not in a liquidity explosion? how can you deline the line between the two? i never seen a bubble like this, this is of course possible because more people, newbie probably get in now, if it was only a bubble it shoudl have popped already, real bubble are done buy whale and not blindly like this one, and they fade away quickly, now everything is pumped because more money are in, money that will not go away, if there is profit

I think it isn't bubble and people are missing to take in right perspective all what is happening right now in altcoins markets. I honestly think this our evolutionary seamless migration towards digital era just like from metal money to paper money was decades ago. It is seems and gives impression like it is bubble but at least like many other people I don't think so.

Everything is a bubble if you look at it one way or another.

Be careful.

Trade/Invest only what you can afford to lose.  If you are in big time, think about shaving tops on some positions. Do this until you re about or close to 100% no your initial investment and let the rest glide along.

It is this type of sensationalist topics or headlines that makes us, the people in crypto, miss on opportunities that we, crypto people, only have as of now.

We, crypto guys/gals, are the ones here on the blogs, reading about coins that do not exist out there. We are the ones spending hours reading about coin distribution, usage, etc.  We have the hand here to capitalize on our knowledge. We are the ones buying coins with real money in shady ways, shady exchanges, before these coins hit the outside.

$100 in ETH back in December now gives you $1200
$100 in XRP back in March now gives out $4200
...

Roll your coins over and take out your initial investment.

But aren't more and more people becoming aware of cryptocurrency "investing" and "easy money"? With more people you have more idiots, so more people willing to blindly buy into the latest shitcoin just because of their own FOMO, which will extend the life of the bubble. What will it take to make it pop?

Well, maybe BTC is in a bubble.

Well, it should be a bubble, because increasing of users + more transactions = even more problems. I have a friend who has a transaction without a single confirmation for 2 weeks now. And we're talking about 0.08 BTC. Yeah, they are not $10 million, but still...

I don't think that the current spike in the BTC exchange rates is a bubble. It is having more than 10 million users, and the user base have been growing for the past many years. But the same can't be said about most of the altcoins. They don't have a large number of users.

We may not neccessory been in bubble. Price rise maybe due to real increase in use and not only hype. But yeah, I agree there need to be usage which should justify coin price rather than trade. Cryptocurrencies need to come out of this exchange-investment-pump-dump web.

I'm working on a project - refurbishing chapel from 1838 - we were thinking about Kickstarter... Because there is so much money in the crypto space we are considering doing an https://astralship.org/ico

(Kickstarter is so 2012)

If you have expertise - or if you know a platform allowing us to launch ICO - that would be super helpful... There are some links on the Github wiki already - we are always investigating and searching for best options.

Like I did with the warning about DAO failure about a week before the attack or probably by exposing Razormind's 6k+ BTC scam to name a few? You are nothing but a stupid ETH cheerleader and every "discussion" with you may result in losing millions of brain cells, but fortunately I am one of the MANY people here who does not care what you say and I actually find your stupidity as entertaining.   

What I am and what I'm doing does not have negative impact in digital currencies. Pumping shitcoins and luring people into scams does. This is a forum were everyone is free to share his concerns. I have some lately and decided to share - that's it.

Forget his pathetic grandiose moralising spartak_nt is the big man with the dodgy barber who goes around threatening posters who don't subscribe to his diatribe bullshits. He's actually cost other posters money by his disgusting dissuasions.

You are so humble you look down on anyone who wants to make money and do what they want with it? Not everyone talks boats and bitches..

Save your moralising, this isn't the forum for it. You seem like a slightly dull ascetic than actually moral. I mean how dare you go on an exotic holiday or have a good job and home when half the world is without these things? It's all relative.

I was expecting you to show up here. I told you that I'll always beat you in this "game" and advised you not to attack me, but I guess you haven't learned these lessons. You and Mindlesscache (thought I do somehow believe you're same person) have something in common. Do you know what that is? You're both with 2 brain cells - one which allows you to breath, and one to spread bullshit here.

You haven't read what i wrote ? I said that almost all altcoins are ~90% traded in btc only, so that's why every other altcoin gained alot in the past 3 months. I think only ethereum is traded "only" 50% in btc, every other coin is traded anywhere between 85-99% bitcoin.

One of the reason XRP gained is because of the FOMO and the fact that people actually believe XRP success is linked to ripple's success as a platform, which is false ( since ripple can work just as well without XRP ). Sad thing is, it's even written on ripple's site. And it's also written that they can freeze assets, they chose validators ( if they have to do that means the project is flawed, wouldn't work with public validators ). Proof of freeze http://insidebitcoins.com/news/not-so-decentralized-ripple-freezes-1m-in-user-funds/31862

Edit: @minecache was always right about ethereum. Even with the dao, the 60% lose in value after dao incident, he never changed his mind. And people like Dollface were screaming scam and what not. Dollface, you should apologise.

I agree, the bubble might pop or it might morph into a smaller bubble!

Its hard to figure what is driving the rises but in my opinion there are justified
and unjustified rises. Unjustified like Dogecoin and Ripple, Justified like possibly
Litecoin, Bitcoin, Belacoin, Siacoin, Ethereum and Dash. These are just the ones that
I know of that actually offer something and that people will or are actually going to
use rather than just trading only.