Topic: What a weekend! - page 2. (Read 2599 times)
Remember: $1000 is history, 2013, forget it. This was the last weekend of Bitcoin at $1,000. It was nice to share it with you all!
Yes very nice post indeed, my only question, why in you graph the upward trend starts at $1000 and not at ~$1250?
Sorry, excuse me but could you please be a bit more clear? All I see is uptrends on my graphs!
Sorry maybe it wasn't clear!
I expected the green line to change at around previous ATH / price of an ounce of gold.
My green line represents my view of a more or less a sensible angle for the beginning of 2014 and beyond*. I think you will see strong support along a line of this angle if people panic in 2014. But I also think that panic should die down as new confidence, based more firmly on the "real world" now and not just on speculation, is seeping into the market.
I cannot tell exactly where there will be sudden purchases of thousands of BTC hence spikes upward, but I am taking my short-term cue for the red line from the analyst I quote, but betting the odds are actually on right now that it will happen next week.
It is logical to suppose that at the previous ATH there could be another explosion. But I am getting the suspicion that despite everyone's love of round numbers and previous figures, it is difficult to call exactly when boosts will happen. This is compounded by the fact that exchanges are relatively inefficient at the moment, building up the steam of demand on one side, and we cannot tell in what bursts this steam will be released.
*Edit: Although of course an utter catastrophe could still in theory happen in which case obviously the green line would not be relevant, but on the other hand, and I think more intriguingly, the S-curve shape that people have been mentioning could come into play, meaning much steeper climb. Obviously this would require viral adoption and an explosion in the real Bitcoin economy, IMO.
Yes very nice post indeed, my only question, why in you graph the upward trend starts at $1000 and not at ~$1250?
Sorry, excuse me but could you please be a bit more clear? All I see is uptrends on my graphs!
Sorry maybe it wasn't clear!
I expected the green line to change at around previous ATH / price of an ounce of gold.
Yes very nice post indeed, my only question, why in you graph the upward trend starts at $1000 and not at ~$1250?
Sorry, excuse me but could you please be a bit more clear? All I see is uptrends on my graphs!
China
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
While this is true, I don't think the West is leading the market right now. China is still leading with Huobi. While the rest of the world has prevented a worse crash and we probably inspired renewed confidence in China, it does look like Huobi/China has taken over the lead again. If something happens to Huobi the market will probably drop hard again, maybe not as hard as before but it will easily drop 30% when that happens. Eventually bitcoin will cut itself loose from China like it cut itself loose from MtGox dominance but we aren't there yet imo, it takes some more time. I'm not a doomsday preacher at all, but I don't think we should paint our glasses too rosy here.
Besides that nice report from one of the most bullish posters on this forum.
Thanks! I do believe we may be close in viewpoint over China. In my post I am making the case that in real terms (technology, business growth, etc.) China dropping out would not be a problem for Bitcoin at such an early stage as each and every country in which Bitcoin can exist is still like a vast, unexplored playground. But psychologically yes - we are still fragile over China.
But if we keep talking realistically and try to keep human nature - fear, hope, etc. - in check (very difficult I know!) and instead trust in the nature of virality (which any Internet enthusiast has already seen for themselves through numerous real-world examples) and in our own common sense, we will get over China sooner or later like you say.
Yes very nice post indeed, my only question, why in you graph the upward trend starts at $1000 and not at ~$1250?
China
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
While this is true, I don't think the West is leading the market right now. China is still leading with Huobi. While the rest of the world has prevented a worse crash and we probably inspired renewed confidence in China, it does look like Huobi/China has taken over the lead again. If something happens to Huobi the market will probably drop hard again, maybe not as hard as before but it will easily drop 30% when that happens. Eventually bitcoin will cut itself loose from China like it cut itself loose from MtGox dominance but we aren't there yet imo, it takes some more time. I'm not a doomsday preacher at all, but I don't think we should paint our glasses too rosy here.
Besides that nice report from one of the most bullish posters on this forum.
Enjoyable commentary - thanks!
Thank you very much!
Enjoyable commentary - thanks!
What a weekend!
But it's “just” a weekend and all Hodlers out there need to prepare themselves for what is to come.
I think it is important to look at the two next key prices we are fast approaching:
$1,000
“$1,000 isn't cool...”
Please excuse my Justin Timberlake paraphrase but it does seem pertinent considering what a bullish weekend we have been seeing.
We have been there before and we have been well above there before also, for a significant period of time.
I don't think you would be able to find too many people on this forum – bulls and bears alike – who think that Bitcoin should be underneath $1,000 for much longer.
In fact, once we get above $1,000, we don't really ever want to go back underneath again.
Just remember this as you watch $1,000 go by while riding the train. It is a 2013 milestone – nothing to do with 2014 at all. Forget it.
+/- $1,240 (price of an ounce of gold)
At the end of 2013 we just scraped the price of an ounce of gold, a very significant event and not a coincidence. This price is hugely important.
Gold has been an integral part of human culture thousands of years. It is more established than fiat currency. It holds huge psychological sway. This cannot be underestimated.
The history of gold is incredible. Few cultures have not held gold as something precious. Some of the most recognisable artefacts of ancient history are made of gold (Tutankhamen’s mask). Empires have been invaded for the sake of gold (the Incas).
Technically speaking we can of course easily get past the price of an ounce of gold. But as we go past make no mistake, it is a hugely significant event in the eyes of the world and will cause many more waves of media coverage.
Once past the price of gold we also don't ever want to see that price again. It's going to drop away.
China
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
Speed
At regular intervals this weekend we have been picking up dizzying speed. There are also signs that volume is starting to turn.
A couple of days ago I posted two charts and made some comments:
Here is the thread but I will post the charts again below https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/early-2014-397534
It looks very much like we are preparing to break sharply upwards (towards f on top chart and red line on bottom chart) as the technical analyst Hellork proposed with a tiny 1:100 chance of happening.
A note: for all the terminology “stochastic volume”, “fib”, “wedges” and “new moons”, as soon as I read Hellork's chart and analysis I felt confident taking on the pro's stance even at his odds of 1:100. Read the other thread for my reasons but I will summarise three of them with bullet points here:
- viral growth and media coverage
- bottlenecks at exchanges building up pressure
- increasing confidence as we move out of the earliest stages of early adoption
The long and short of it is this: traditional TA has been useful in the past and in some circumstances but right now it is often not working correctly due to the difficulty of factoring in the above bullet points and more. More than ever before it is possible for the average non-specialist to get ahead simply through their own efforts. Some time reading up, a cool head and common sense will get you as far as you need to go.
Next week is going to be interesting but one small word of warning. If we do explode upwards then it becomes more likely that at some point this may become unsustainable. In real terms this will be strongly linked to the effects of bottlenecks at the exchanges. In other words don't panic! Look for some kind of retracement to the green line* on the second chart above.
Hodling
I have proposed in previous posts that Hodling is having a profound effect on the market. I also said that as it becomes possible to spend Bitcoins it would be helpful to the economy to spend some (this is in fact still Hodling – Hodling Bitcoins in the Bitcoin economy and not cashing them out).
But for the next days and weeks a straightforward cold storage option may be required. No over-excitement about reaching $1,000 again, and absolutely no wavering when sailing past the price of gold.
*Although some may find it too steep and some may find it too slow, my projected green line would take Bitcoin to a ballpark figure of around $5,000 at the end of 2014, a figure considered conservative by quite a few people. If an S-curve becomes more apparent this green line could get steeper. If there is some bad news then it could get shallower. But 99% of us (minus a few trolls
) agree it is going significantly up this year. As it keeps going volatility on the log scale is likely to keep decreasing. Don't forget this!
But it's “just” a weekend and all Hodlers out there need to prepare themselves for what is to come.
I think it is important to look at the two next key prices we are fast approaching:
$1,000
“$1,000 isn't cool...”
Please excuse my Justin Timberlake paraphrase but it does seem pertinent considering what a bullish weekend we have been seeing.
We have been there before and we have been well above there before also, for a significant period of time.
I don't think you would be able to find too many people on this forum – bulls and bears alike – who think that Bitcoin should be underneath $1,000 for much longer.
In fact, once we get above $1,000, we don't really ever want to go back underneath again.
Just remember this as you watch $1,000 go by while riding the train. It is a 2013 milestone – nothing to do with 2014 at all. Forget it.
+/- $1,240 (price of an ounce of gold)
At the end of 2013 we just scraped the price of an ounce of gold, a very significant event and not a coincidence. This price is hugely important.
Gold has been an integral part of human culture thousands of years. It is more established than fiat currency. It holds huge psychological sway. This cannot be underestimated.
The history of gold is incredible. Few cultures have not held gold as something precious. Some of the most recognisable artefacts of ancient history are made of gold (Tutankhamen’s mask). Empires have been invaded for the sake of gold (the Incas).
Technically speaking we can of course easily get past the price of an ounce of gold. But as we go past make no mistake, it is a hugely significant event in the eyes of the world and will cause many more waves of media coverage.
Once past the price of gold we also don't ever want to see that price again. It's going to drop away.
China
Last and certainly not least (perhaps “most” in fact) when we move past the price of gold we also move past the top of the previous bubble, the “China bubble”, which was strongly linked to Chinese influence. For the Bitcoin community this is probably the most important early 2014 milestone. We are leading China now and don't forget it. If at some stage China goes out of the game then it makes sense to think there will be a certain effect on the market. But in an ideal world if this effect was truly to mirror the problem China dropping out would cause Bitcoin, then the charts should really show nothing stronger than a blip. Remember this: Bitcoin has vast territory to grow into outside of China. Vast territory and myriad business and financial dimensions that are so far almost utterly untapped.
Speed
At regular intervals this weekend we have been picking up dizzying speed. There are also signs that volume is starting to turn.
A couple of days ago I posted two charts and made some comments:
Here is the thread but I will post the charts again below https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/early-2014-397534
It looks very much like we are preparing to break sharply upwards (towards f on top chart and red line on bottom chart) as the technical analyst Hellork proposed with a tiny 1:100 chance of happening.
A note: for all the terminology “stochastic volume”, “fib”, “wedges” and “new moons”, as soon as I read Hellork's chart and analysis I felt confident taking on the pro's stance even at his odds of 1:100. Read the other thread for my reasons but I will summarise three of them with bullet points here:
- viral growth and media coverage
- bottlenecks at exchanges building up pressure
- increasing confidence as we move out of the earliest stages of early adoption
The long and short of it is this: traditional TA has been useful in the past and in some circumstances but right now it is often not working correctly due to the difficulty of factoring in the above bullet points and more. More than ever before it is possible for the average non-specialist to get ahead simply through their own efforts. Some time reading up, a cool head and common sense will get you as far as you need to go.
Next week is going to be interesting but one small word of warning. If we do explode upwards then it becomes more likely that at some point this may become unsustainable. In real terms this will be strongly linked to the effects of bottlenecks at the exchanges. In other words don't panic! Look for some kind of retracement to the green line* on the second chart above.
Hodling
I have proposed in previous posts that Hodling is having a profound effect on the market. I also said that as it becomes possible to spend Bitcoins it would be helpful to the economy to spend some (this is in fact still Hodling – Hodling Bitcoins in the Bitcoin economy and not cashing them out).
But for the next days and weeks a straightforward cold storage option may be required. No over-excitement about reaching $1,000 again, and absolutely no wavering when sailing past the price of gold.
*Although some may find it too steep and some may find it too slow, my projected green line would take Bitcoin to a ballpark figure of around $5,000 at the end of 2014, a figure considered conservative by quite a few people. If an S-curve becomes more apparent this green line could get steeper. If there is some bad news then it could get shallower. But 99% of us (minus a few trolls
) agree it is going significantly up this year. As it keeps going volatility on the log scale is likely to keep decreasing. Don't forget this! Jump to: