Topic: What about this? (Read 1443 times)

i think that graph is missing a phase, the limbo/stall pahse, which apaprently can be very long, and it seems our case right now, recent swings are only normal fluctuation i would not call these bear trap or whatever you want

Thats if those smart kids have money to buy it on a monthly basis.

Its still a lot of money for someone to constantly stack up, unless you live with your parents or dont pay rent.

I don't think we are at a despair phase, we are at a "dumb idiots panic selling and whales manipulating while smart kids buy BTC monthly" phase.

Yeah, like a simple reddit thread about something positive can really change the markets reaction in a heart beat.

Depending what the news is it can influence like $50 difference or more. But the news would be something super positive like "yay, we finally got the 1st process of the etf approved" or something along those lines.

I don't rely much on graphs because I think that the graphs might tell something, but the market's reaction can always change.

people put their trust and focus too much in graphs. some times it is a good indicator, but take some distance from it to do your own market research and keep an eye at the news.

Bubble chart comparison does look very similar, except the bubble's rise was a little too quick and the  capitulation not steep enough. Although the fit is not perfect I do believe we are in a kind os undervalued 'despair' phase/ returning to mean, corresponding to the idea in the OP

That would certainly be interesting to implement. A free market of price discovery mechanisms would certainly act to stabilize the price.

No ones going to agree on when to sell and when to buy at the same time lol.

Its more of a individual basis if the person feels they need cash or dont want to be part of bitcoin anymore.

The famous "bubble graph" we all know and love represents large market cycles which are driven by supply and demand and human fear in most every asset class. In retrospect on they will all resemble this pattern. The exception to this are the big indices (DJIA, S&P) in which the underperformers are constantly being replaced. With those, you get a graph that is more or less up over a very long period (which is kind of misleading when you think about it).

The run up to the peak of the bubble (bull market) is caused by lack of supply and increased demand. Higher prices bring in more demand because humans fear a poor position in life--they buy to get rich.

The run down to the trough of the bubble (bear market) is caused by excess supply and decreasing demand. Lower prices decrease demand and increase supply from the same people who bought to get rich. As their dreams are dashed, they become fearful and tend to sell.

Price cycles are governed by the floating supply of the asset and the qualities of the people who own it. As the bubble gets going, sentiment improves and price increases but this also spreads the available supply around to those rushing in from all corners to get rich. These people are weak hands. As the bubble deflates, the supply consolidates back into the strong hands, or high quality owners intent on holding long-term who will not be shaken out as easily on bad news or lower prices.

This is also the reason bear markets take longer to play out--near market tops the supply float is held by a large number of people so it takes longer to distribute on the market. In contrast, just before a bull market at the bottom, the supply is consolidated into very few hands ready to sell to the public. This doesn't take as long once the spark of greed has been ingnited.

I stopped looking at graphs long time ago, and folded every TA (technical analysis) provided in the trash.

Instead just see it in your own view of whats being it used for, and that sums up why to invest rather then always see the #`s. I mean yeah you cant ignore it, but its better to look at 3 month price basis then seeing it at everyday.

Apples and oranges. I don't think a graph showing the performance of stocks has much to do with bitcoin at all. There has never been a dead cat bounce because bitcoin has not, and likely will not die. Stocks NEED money, I mean absolutely NEED money to function. Bitcoin does not need or give a crap about money. She is a computer program, not a stock.

It is a nice comparison. I have seen this graph before and it is nice to see it labelled the way you have labelled it against the bitcoin value over the years. The 'bursting of the bubble' is less dramatic in reality than that in the chart and it is hard to say if capitulation occurred from September 2014 to December 2014 or whether that is where we are now with despair yet to come. A nice share though. Thank you.

Bitcoin doesn't seem to follow the standard rules of a currency when it comes to value.  The price is going to be more related to what kind of adoption we get, new services, etc.

That said, I think we're back in the stable territory.  It's still a good bit higher than when this whole bubble started, and seems to be holding it's own pretty well.  We may see another bubble sometime in the future, but I don't think it where be anywhere near the scale of this one simply because of the media coverage it got this time.  While there were bubbles proportionate to this one in the past, BTC was still a relatively unheard of technology.  Now the average Joe is going to be hesitant about going in because all he knows about is Gox and going from $1,100 to $250.

The comparative can be seen as correct if you consider the 1K bubble is now gone and it's just a matter of time that the next bubble begins. Im sure we'll be way past ATH in 5 years, I just don't know if we've gone through the despair phase yet or not.

Agreed, graphs a subject to too subjective.  It's anyones guess what the future holds in terms of valuation but I do know as adoption grows and the BTC economies grow two effects will be observed:  lessened volatility and an increase in overall value per coin.

Let's stop with the speculation and get back to the basics.


Cheers!

The look similar, but correlation does not equate to causation.

Whoever labeled "mean" on those graphs does not grasp basic mathematics, however.  The mean should be a vertical line:

The graph is correct as many boom bust cycles have proven it correct time and time again. What differs is the time-frame chosen and amplitude of the price. Myself I do not think we have had the despair phase yet, need some sub $100 for awhile to really shake out the weak hands, after that happens look-out. This may be a year or two away yet, it hard to tell as you can only correctly fit the graph to reality in hindsight.

I don't look at graphs personally and can't stand them. Sometimes they are right, most of the times they are not. Everybody can make a graph that suits them. We need to look at the general health of the whole ecosystem. Investments, news, number of new users, rise in number of transactions, et.. This means much more to me than a bunch of lines!

These graphs are suppose to present some results and project for future. I think that are just presenting the wish of someone how it can be.
Market today is tight connected to all aspects of our life and it`s managed by whales who have their own goals.
Next month we will see new charts with explanation and projection which will fit ... .