Topic: What amount of fiat and/bitcoin would you consider safe holding in a bear market (Read 395 times)

Honestly I would not put that much on stablecoins, 45% seems a lot. I try to keep it as "income" and that's much better for me. That way I know when to invest and when to wait, and my income makes sure that I could invest a lot more if I want to, and not invest if I do not want to, makes a lot more sense.

That is what salary gives you, an unlimited amount (unless you are fired) of back to back investments, you could invest this month, but can invest in October too, then on November too, then December, so if the price is low you keep buying at lower prices. I understand putting a bit aside, so if I do not want to, I put it on stable, and invest double next month.

Bitcoin bear market is not of much concern. It can end rapidly, it can last an unpredictable amount of time. More importantly, Bitcoin will recover from it, so it's only temporary and only a loss if you sell during the bear market. As for the recession the global economy is entering and the inflation of many fiat currencies, that's a more concerning thing. Fiat rarely gets better after bad times. The good thing is considered when fiat starts losing less value than it used to be losing, and people normally can't expect the value to grow or to recover to pre-recession times, even. So hodling fiat can be unsafe in these times, and it's better to spend it or to hodl Bitcoin, IMO.

Well it depends on one's holding capacity actually. I more of a risk taker and currently half of my money is in crypto.
50% of the amount is in crypto while the rest is in real estate and stocks and savings account.
But from a general perspective I think a person should be holding 30% in crypto, 30% in fiat and 40% in real estate and bonds.
This must be a better portfolio to hold on in a bear market.

This is only my personal opinion, not a financial advice.

The amount that is safe to HODL in a bear market should be the same amount to HODL in a bull market, if not higher. If HODLing to you means you might end up selling during "trying times," I think you are investing more than you should. Or perhaps you've interchanged the old buy low sell high rule.

I don't agree that selling off assets are encouraged during bear market. Bear market is supposed to be for acquiring and bull market for selling. Unless badly needed and selling is the only choice left, it is really not a wise decision to sell when prices have fallen at least 70%.

I think everyone has a different opinion in today's bear market but to keep it safe I think it's fiat.

First, when there is a bearish occurrence, some people feel panicked and they prefer to hold on to a stable coin to keep the asset down because they don't want a very big loss.
Second, they dare to buy as much Bitcoin as possible because this is the lowest price so they make large-scale purchases for the long term either in the DCA system or also Dips by doing this they have more confidence in Bitcoin which is one of the real investments.

Or create other portfolios by dividing a few percent by the allocation that is needed, I am general, but still fiat is needed for our daily use.

I always like to buy more Bitcoin during bear market which makes me have just 5% fiat left and 95% Bitcoin. When demand gets so high on me, I usually sell little Bitcoin to fulfill the need. I just can't hold too much fiat without wanting to buy Bitcoin. So it all depends on individual, people keep fait based on the numbers of need that may arise.

i agree, USING stable coin as a tool to get into bitcoin has benefits of time. its faster than dowing a bank wire transfer out and then a wire dranswer in.

using it as a temporary tool for instance to move from one exchange to another for arbitrade opportunities..

but SAVING value long term in fiat or stable.. is not a good investment plan

..
when it comes tochooseing the %of the fiat lump sums to put to btc or altcoin. its simple..

rate each coin you are interested in based on their price position inside the window (mining cost low and max, your perceived low and max of 6 months)

EG lets take ethereum PoW vs ethereum PoS pre-post merge
PoW                      V
       ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||    30% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

PoS                   V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    37% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

BTC          V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    6% risk
       0    15    30    45    60    75    90
  
as you can see the price of ethereum is now in the orange mid risk zone. because ethereum has now degraded to a poor store of value algo where the possible-bottom is a few dollars because it costs only a few dollars a coin to create ethereum thus those staking can sell down to a few dollars and still profit
yep so far Eth staking has dropped the store of value minimum support from ~$900 to about $30

thus not a great time to be holding/investing in ethereum compared to other coins that are more in the green. like bitcoin and have a better value support

lol! Clever.
That's actually the best course of action to do when you're waiting to get BTC in a lower price and try to DCA as fast as you can before the price bounce back up a few hundred dollars or a grand.
There a bit difference between holding a fiat and a stable coin thought they ultimately have similar value all the time, but fiat can't buy Bitcoin or any altcoin right away when you see a good entry point. With crypto's high volatility, it is possible to miss a good dip when you got a fiat converted into Btc or stablecoin.
And one last thing, I agree to both of you that keeping/saving a fiat won't save you even a few cents in the next coming years. I'd also suggest to buy properties and invest into real estate, it's safer than all of the investments in the market today. But if your risk appetite is in a tremendous level, then better invest in Bitcoin as well. 

Its best to start accumulating Bitcoin under 20000 dollars. Because Bitcoin's top was like 20000 in bull run before last one. So I see it as 'perfect bottom'. Anything under 20000 dollars is definitely steal (for buyer, not seller). My favourite is to hold my money on stable usd coins and buy at different levels around. Its best to at least put %50 of your wealth into Bitcoin in bear market if you wanna make huge gains in bull run.

Not everyone is a believer in fiat, they will never keep it regardless of market conditions and bear markets are also subjective. I saw a wallet address from a user in this forum who hold bitcoin throughout last year November when bitcoin hit an all-time high and till now, the user has refused to sell his bitcoin and it amazed me that the wallet received his first transaction a few years ago when bitcoin was cheap, some people are determined to hold until bitcoin becomes so scarce that holding one will be difficult.

Personally, I feel its a bit too late to be holding into fiat, bitcoin price has found its support around the $18k range and despite the FED and their interest rate, it is still holding that position, it will be better if you convert them and buy bitcoin now that the price is down, you ware having them at a discount, we may or may not see the $13k people are anticipating.

lets imagine you get min wage ($10/h *40 *40=$1600)
you keep $600 as fiat (~36%)
put $1k a month into stable. purely to invest into crypto..
for easy math numbers

where you want to be based on your numbers 2parts btc 3 parts altcoin
meaning 40% btc 60% alt(not sure why but you have your reasons for altcoin preference)

meaning of the $1k going to stable.. you are reserving $400 for bitcoin

now if you work out bitcoins "value window"
which by world costs is $15k -$95k
or by market measures is $17k-$70k

lets go with the first one. where it has a window of 80k gap. (15-95)
measure it out as a %

m.price: 15   19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95  
percent:100  95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05 00


at a price of $21k each month i would put in 92%($368) of the $400 monthly investment money to buy btc..  and accumulate $31-631 a month in stable
depending on how much altcoin you bought and to take some opportunities if price went down

after all if the price went up $2k($23k) you will be angry that you missed out on the 10% lower price where you done nothing but just waited out and didnt buy in.
however if the price didnt go up but went down $2k($19k).. you would still be waiting out hoping for a lower price($15k) which may never come..

thus having a large stash of stable doing nothing. and when the eventual price rise does come.. wishing you bought in while low

so set some limits. and assign a %chance of up or down to decide how much each month you should invest
 EG what is the max you think the price will reach in the next 6 months. set up your own window and percentage it out into increments of how much of monthly amount you should invest per month into btc and how much you want to leave aside for the rare chance of "bottom"

EG if you think $30k is the top limit for next 6month window

15    16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30
100  94  88  82  76  69  62  55  48  41  34  27  21  14  07  00

that way at $21k price you are 62% btc 38% stable of the $400 btc allotment
you assigned

obviously at top of window it becomes 0% where you just stop investing most of your fiat

"Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets. "

Thats what predator hodl'rs anticipate and prey on.
 
Its only the gamblers who jump back and forth between Bitcoin and fiat/altcoins who ask questions like this. "Smart" money always wants to be in fiat in the evening.  Smarter money seeks to hold hard assets especially Bitcoin, even when its a bad day in fiat terms. I've been in Bitcoin 10+ years; I puked a little when I sold a couple in 2020.  I'll never make that mistake again.

Any investment plan will be considered safe if it does not involve a reserve allocation of your daily needs. Remember the common word that you must be prepared to lose with the value of the investment.

I have owned almost 60% of the portfolio in stablecoins since Bitcoin's decline surpassed the first 40k and only a few % of what I spent the DCA way. I think it's a shame to leave even $10 fiat (investment portfolio) if we squander this bearish season.

What do you mean "holding everything in bitcoin"? Do you think to invest in a single coin, BTC only?
I was thinking to have a single coin (BTC), but I prefer to diversify crypto assets now. I assume we should consider top altcoins too, they have a good potential to increase their values in the future. Holding BTC is good, but holding top altcoins is a nice idea. During this bearish market, it is a perfect time to buy both BTC and top altcoins.

Regarding OP questions, I only invest in BTC 15%, Top Altcoins 25%, Fiats 60%.

Yeah, I will consider holding any amount since you will never know when you will going to sell some of it. There are no safe zone for holding any amount for as long as you can afford to lose it then that's the risk you consider no matter what happens. Converting it to fiat or just holding on to fiat will not give you anything during the bull run even if you hide your fiat in the banks there are no difference. And somehow, Bitcoin is different since every market cycle the price changes and there your investment grow or down depending on the market situation.

How about holding everything in bitcoin except the money which you need in your daily usage? If you have the money and the funds, it's best to buy in the bear market as much as you can and then wait for the bull market. We cannot sell at the top in the bull market but if you have some experience you can sell near the top and gain awesome profits.

OP, have more fiat then make sure you buy more bitcoin during a bear market. You will definitely enjoy the results in the long term, but I don't expect you to forget the risks.

There is a good strategy to practice when the market is bearish, that is DCA. So you can use 20% to 50% of your fiat to buy bitcoin, so you will have a lower chance of getting it for the next accumulation process. Don't be afraid to make yourself a long-term investor in bitcoin, but don't if you can't afford the risks.

If you read a bit down in my statement, you would have seen this The 45% in stable coin is been accumulated, waiting for a possible $15k price, if this happens, all will go into bitcoin. But till then I keep DCA.
Fiat loses value to what ever extent you can think of, it is not an exergeration. The best is to buy properties as you advised rather than saving in fiat currency.

I think it's the inverse, in the bear market especially the ones like the current scenario where we are at rock bottom, most of your holdings should be in BTC only so that you can enjoy anytime the market reveres from here. Just a small portion say 25% should be in fiat which will be used to Dollar Cost average your positions in the next leg down. This way you will ensure that you are able to be in a better position whenever the market falls next and are also ready for any reversal. Selling of should never be a considerable option in these scenarios, one should always try to keep calm and don't sell unless you are in dire need of money.

It’s not safe to put all of your money in bitcoin, neither is it wise. You do not put all your eggs into a single basket.
You say it’s 100% safe to have your money in bitcoin but we shouldn’t still put a 100% into it. Personally, I don’t think your money is a 100% safe in bitcoin. I’m no naysayer but I don’t fully trust bitcoin the same way I haven’t got complete faith in fiat currency. And that’s why I’m a bit hesitant to put any higher than 30%.