What are the Chances of a Crypto Winter?

Febo

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Quote from: pitham1 on October 22, 2017, 08:24:08 AM

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

The reasons for this jump are manifold (including the bots - Willie and Markus, which bought Bitcoins on Mt. Gox), but the almost 100 fold increase in price was unprecedented. The 500% increase in price of Bitcoin in 2017 appears tame in comparison. Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

It is funny how after a week of stability people predicting downfall and 2014 over and over again. Right now and this is only few week later everyone is supper optimistic and call for $10k $50k $100k

malikusama

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Quote from: pitham1 on October 23, 2017, 12:51:52 PM

Quote from: malikusama on October 23, 2017, 12:02:50 PM

Quote from: dead_m92 on October 22, 2017, 05:43:48 PM

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

Same thoughts, these are two totally different scenarios, at 2013 bitcoin was not much popular and reliable than it is now. In the last couple of years bitcoin has gained the user's trust that's why they prefer to hold it for a long time rather than selling. Bitcoin is strong now and better than before so we should keep calm.

Bitcoin might be trusted by a lot more people now compared to 2013, but the price is a lot higher as well. I am not saying that we are going to crash and burn now, but let us not rule out a trend reversal.

Yes, bitcoin may face a downfall because whales will going to take advantage of this all time high, but it will not be like it was in 2013 as OP stated.

tee-rex

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Quote from: pitham1 on October 22, 2017, 08:24:08 AM

I know that we are all perennial bulls in this forum (except maybe kwucduck), but we do have to consider the possibility of a crash. If after a crash, the price remains low for a long time, we may lose some of our crypto converts.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Eerie similarities to 2013

A year after the block reward halving, with media buzzing about Bitcoin, and a multifold increase in price - this is not just a description of 2017 but also perfectly fits 2013. After the block reward halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin shot up during the following year. The price increased from around $13 at the starting of 2013 to a peak of over $1200.

In my opinion, these analogies or similarities are rather far-fetched. This is not to say that bitcoin might not crash dramatically, but I certainly don't think that it will have anything to do with the events which happened during the Mt. Gox times. Bitcoin could tank massively but there is no reason to think that it will crash like it crashed through 2014 after the Gox fiasco. This Cointelegraph article is a typical piece of fear mongering to stir up interest on false or even contrived premises. The current growth is totally different from severe price manipulation that happened at Mt. Gox back in 2013.

Izarok

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We might learn from the graph and speculation of 2013 but it pretty much offers no detail on how the market goes today. I think we should speculate with the current market and from that we base if there will a crash or not.

panju1

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Quote from: hello_good_sir on October 25, 2017, 04:44:13 AM

There is always a chance. And i think it may come next year quite probably if interest in investing in bitcoin start to wane off towards to the end of the year. However, it won't really come as a surprise to anyone. All pumps has to end one day.

Especially one of this kind of magnitude, and this kind of size.

I doubt the crash will be that hard, probably 50% of btc value tops. Unlike the 2013 crash.

Yes, given the price run up, there is a fair chance that we may have a crash next year. And a 50% drop is not small. Most of the newbies would have come in when the price was rising. They will get disillusioned.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: HeRetiK on October 25, 2017, 02:18:16 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 25, 2017, 12:54:54 AM

Quote from: HeRetiK on October 24, 2017, 07:00:25 AM

Boy, if we get another 5 boom busts cycles of these magnitudes count me in! Grin

In all seriousness though, of course fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested elsewhere. But the same goes for fiat stuck in stocks and gold. Bonds too, in their own way. Problem being, you never know when a bear market hits and how long it will last.

But why would you be willing to hold an asset that is going through a bear market? It would be better to do nothing an wait for the price to go down and then buy.

Maybe it is better to find another cryptocurrency that is negatively correlated with Bitcoin and buy some of that to "hedge your bets" as they say.

Why would you sell at the bottom?

Why would you assume that I would hold anything in a bear market? I have nothing to sell. My advice has always been to buy the dip. But it only works because Bitcoin is in a bull market.

Quote

The problem with bear markets -- as with bull markets -- is that you don't know whether you're currently living through one until it's much too late. And once you realize you're in a bear market, there's no telling how long it will last or how far down it will go. Maybe it's just me, but I don't have much confidence in my ability to time the market. Of course it always looks easy in hindsight though.

The problem with using alts for hedging BTC is that so far none of the alts have shown negative correlation to it. If you look at it historically, there've been some short-term pumps here and there, but none of the alts look viable for hedging. Most alts have been hit stronger by bear markets than BTC. The only alt that showed some decoupling of BTC's bear market was ETH, but even ETH seems to follow BTC now.

I agree. But hopefully we might have one soon. The market for cryptocurrencies is still very "young".

hello_good_sir

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There is always a chance. And i think it may come next year quite probably if interest in investing in bitcoin start to wane off towards to the end of the year. However, it won't really come as a surprise to anyone. All pumps has to end one day.

Especially one of this kind of magnitude, and this kind of size.

I doubt the crash will be that hard, probably 50% of btc value tops. Unlike the 2013 crash.

Hyperme.sh

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Quote from: HeRetiK on October 25, 2017, 02:18:16 AM

The problem with using alts for hedging BTC is that so far none of the alts have shown negative correlation to it.

BCH has so far, but only a very short history.

HeRetiK

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 25, 2017, 12:54:54 AM

Quote from: HeRetiK on October 24, 2017, 07:00:25 AM

Boy, if we get another 5 boom busts cycles of these magnitudes count me in! Grin

In all seriousness though, of course fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested elsewhere. But the same goes for fiat stuck in stocks and gold. Bonds too, in their own way. Problem being, you never know when a bear market hits and how long it will last.

But why would you be willing to hold an asset that is going through a bear market? It would be better to do nothing an wait for the price to go down and then buy.

Maybe it is better to find another cryptocurrency that is negatively correlated with Bitcoin and buy some of that to "hedge your bets" as they say.

Why would you sell at the bottom?

The problem with bear markets -- as with bull markets -- is that you don't know whether you're currently living through one until it's much too late. And once you realize you're in a bear market, there's no telling how long it will last or how far down it will go. Maybe it's just me, but I don't have much confidence in my ability to time the market. Of course it always looks easy in hindsight though.

The problem with using alts for hedging BTC is that so far none of the alts have shown negative correlation to it. If you look at it historically, there've been some short-term pumps here and there, but none of the alts look viable for hedging. Most alts have been hit stronger by bear markets than BTC. The only alt that showed some decoupling of BTC's bear market was ETH, but even ETH seems to follow BTC now.

Dart18

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And at what number would it be after the crash that you are foreseeing.
I am against it. It is not the same anymore.
The holders grew and the investors bloated and still keeps on adding up everyday.
With the new cryptos outside (altcoins) there is a chance that investors from that will go to this side. It can never happen again.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: HeRetiK on October 24, 2017, 07:00:25 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 23, 2017, 11:20:59 PM

Quote from: HeRetiK on October 23, 2017, 06:07:30 AM

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

For some investors the fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested somewhere else. Too much time is wasted when you invest in something in long bear markets. We do not stay young forever.

Before you reach 60, how many boom and busts cycle are there, 5 at most?

Boy, if we get another 5 boom busts cycles of these magnitudes count me in! Grin

In all seriousness though, of course fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested elsewhere. But the same goes for fiat stuck in stocks and gold. Bonds too, in their own way. Problem being, you never know when a bear market hits and how long it will last.

But why would you be willing to hold an asset that is going through a bear market? It would be better to do nothing an wait for the price to go down and then buy.

Maybe it is better to find another cryptocurrency that is negatively correlated with Bitcoin and buy some of that to "hedge your bets" as they say.

Torque

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A chance of a Crypto Winter becomes higher if the price of Bitcoin starts to deviate sharply and quickly from what mining ROI supports. The higher and quicker the price goes up, the longer the ensuing bear market will likely be afterwards, as price corrects over time to find market support and equilibrium once again.

I don't feel we are in that situation right now. At least not yet.

Febo

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Quote from: dead_m92 on October 22, 2017, 05:43:48 PM

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

A lot of people are newbies and they look their investment in $ and not in Bitcoin so if price tank they will be first to sell. Crashes happens everyday. What is needed for Crpto not to cool down is that all this ICOs start showing they are scams or bad run projects or bad planed projects. But for that might take a year. The ICOs started this huge long Bitcoin bullrun.

Hyperme.sh

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Quote from: https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

Of course, the base effect does make such 100 fold increases in price almost impossible now, with Bitcoin's market capitalization crossing $100 Bn.

Bitcoin bottomed ~$150. So we’ve already achieved 40X gain. I think we will likely hit 100X gain again before any crypto winter.

Quote from: https://cointelegraph.com/news/could-bitcoins-bubble-lead-to-long-crypto-winter

This time Is different

When comparisons to 2013 are made, the common refrain is “this time is different.” There is increased Bitcoin adoption, there is no Mt. Gox, the ecosystem is better developed, institutional money is coming in and so on. If time has taught us one thing, it is that history usually repeats itself. Or rather, as Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

I already posited in a cockamamie theory the form of widespread “failure” that could perhaps be what rhymes. I do not possess high conviction though on this hair-brained conjecture, as it may be derived from some congential defect.

HeRetiK

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 23, 2017, 11:20:59 PM

Quote from: HeRetiK on October 23, 2017, 06:07:30 AM

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

For some investors the fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested somewhere else. Too much time is wasted when you invest in something in long bear markets. We do not stay young forever.

Before you reach 60, how many boom and busts cycle are there, 5 at most?

Boy, if we get another 5 boom busts cycles of these magnitudes count me in! Grin

In all seriousness though, of course fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested elsewhere. But the same goes for fiat stuck in stocks and gold. Bonds too, in their own way. Problem being, you never know when a bear market hits and how long it will last.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: HeRetiK on October 23, 2017, 06:07:30 AM

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

For some investors the fiat trapped in Bitcoin during a bear market could be better invested somewhere else. Too much time is wasted when you invest in something in long bear markets. We do not stay young forever.

Before you reach 60, how many boom and busts cycle are there, 5 at most?

HeRetiK

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Quote from: Zendalet on October 23, 2017, 06:27:19 AM

Quote from: HeRetiK on October 23, 2017, 06:07:30 AM

Why are so many afraid of a long bear market?

Sure, BTC may lose value over a prolonged timeframe, but how is that different from, say, gold losing value or stock market indizes? Even with traditional assets you have to be prepared to potentially hold them for 5-10 years in case of prolonged market losses. It's not like BTC's fundamentals change just because its market price stops growing for while.

Markets boom and markets bust. It's the cycle of life ˜ ˜ ˜

Gold and stock markets have been around far longer than Bitcoin. And they are driven by different forces. There is no telling Bitcoin will ever recover from another bear market, for example when governments worldwide decide to combat Bitcoin together and outlaw it universally.

What tells you that the gold market will ever top it's last all time high? Or that stocks will recover as quickly the next time the market collapses? Take Japan for example. The Nikkei 225 still has to recover from it's 1990 bubble crash.

Sure Bitcoin could bust only to never recover. It's still a highly speculative endeavour after all.

But what I'm trying to say is this:

1) The longer BTC is around, the more established and the safer an investment it will become.

2) Traditional markets are no safe bet either.

pitham1

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Quote from: malikusama on October 23, 2017, 12:02:50 PM

Quote from: dead_m92 on October 22, 2017, 05:43:48 PM

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

Same thoughts, these are two totally different scenarios, at 2013 bitcoin was not much popular and reliable than it is now. In the last couple of years bitcoin has gained the user's trust that's why they prefer to hold it for a long time rather than selling. Bitcoin is strong now and better than before so we should keep calm.

Bitcoin might be trusted by a lot more people now compared to 2013, but the price is a lot higher as well. I am not saying that we are going to crash and burn now, but let us not rule out a trend reversal.

malikusama

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Quote from: dead_m92 on October 22, 2017, 05:43:48 PM

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

Same thoughts, these are two totally different scenarios, at 2013 bitcoin was not much popular and reliable than it is now. In the last couple of years bitcoin has gained the user's trust that's why they prefer to hold it for a long time rather than selling. Bitcoin is strong now and better than before so we should keep calm.

warrior333

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Quote from: dead_m92 on October 22, 2017, 05:43:48 PM

another guy who is comparing charts from 2013 with actual ones doesnt make any sense anymore, this has already been asked a lot of times in here and it always gets the same replies.
There are probably no chances to see it happening again because the market is now acting different, everybody wants to hold and i dont think that 70% of those who are holding are going to dump their coins at the same time. A lot of people are newbies in here, and they dont want to lose their investment, and less those big whales..

Even if the 70% you speak of wants at the same time to drain their coins, they won't do it. A stuffing coins will trigger a panic and falling prices. Why would someone sell their cheap coins? They will stop selling and wait for prices to rise. I think the price is too high to fall but jumps can be large.

Topic: What are the Chances of a Crypto Winter? (Read 1077 times)