Topic: What are the chances of bitcoin taking another dive? - page 3. (Read 552 times)

While majority of us are looking for Pump then here you are asking when will be the price drops again?

SOrry but i think you need to look for another correction before this happens mate.

Sorry for your situation but all of us here are praying and hoping for another Pump,so yeah lets just wait what will happen next quarter.

With this hypes sentiments of investors are fomoing to ride the train
it's normal when bitcoin is rising
Though there's always chance that the value will bounce back but what
we are noticing is bitcoin
is showing great run, the chance to fall down to that certain fall for now
is slim and with high demands opportunities that it will bring much higher
value may take place.

Any price is likely to happen but now basing on chart of Bitcoin and trend of market, 5900 USD is a price level which nearly can't happen because according to my analysis, psychology of new investors are putting a lot of faith in Bitcoin when the world are having a lot of instability such as pandemic, trade and political tensions between China and the United States. Bitcoin is a safe investment channel.

I guess that's the best thing to do. Pay the loan as much as you can. But $5900 level is far from the horizon at the moment. But in crypto, anything can happen in just few hours. So it is better to pay your loan little by little, at least lessen the amount they are holding against you.

In my opinion, the chances are pretty low to be honest. More and more people are investing in digital payment systems which clearly includes cryptocurrencies thanks to physical FIAT issues due to Coronavirus these days.

The vaccine will probably be administered to everyone by mid-2021 which is why the virus will continue to wreak havoc till that point due to which crypto demand will stay stable for a relatively long period.

This is simply my analysis based on current world conditions, but there is always a risk of BTC plunging which is why you need to always be prepared to lose your investment.

It's always wise to be always updated on the fundamental news for you to be able to anticipate the next Bitcoin price movements.
As of now, there won't be any relevant news for Bitcoin to drop. If the $5,900 is the value of the 40% loan agreement before selling, then you don't need to worry as of the current Btc price movement doesn't seem bearish. Infact, that $5,900 level is the worst figure If bears will appear in the market.
All you need to do now is to pay the loan asap while Btc is in a rising trend. It would be regretful on your end If Btc reach new heights and your asset is stucked in a loan service.

I guess the loan was not taken just like that, but that there is a real need for it - and although it is a kind of gambling, at this point you seem to have chosen a good option. While anything is possible when it comes to BTC, the news that the EU has finally made a decision on the distribution of money seems to have been a positive sign. What remains to be seen is whether this bull run will manage to break $10 500 and move up - or a similar scenario we have already seen will be repeated and the price will return to $9000.

4 years ago after halving the price dropped by about 40%, but that doesn't have to mean anything - we can only hope that what is happening now is not a bear trap.

TBH, we can't see anything of what really it happens in the coming days, though it all seems possible but can't assure that we gonna fall that price in a very specific time. In your case, you are probably be waiting for so long and that is a big loss for you by then. Why you agree with this? What if the price won't fall? Do they still keep your Bitcoin and keep waiting? Better not to have this loan if this will go like this. Really bad on your part...

We are moving above $10k, quite to see that it keeps moving high slowly, and this somehow will kept your Bitcoin in their hands coz it probably the price won't make another dump until the end of this year. And that is difficult next year as halving will most likely to have its impact.

You take a loan means that you agree with their loan terms & conditions. So if if the price drops below 40% then they have the right to sell bitcoin if they want to Listen, we know that everything is possible in crypto, so the decline in bitcoin will happen anytime. But I can't see enough reason to go down now. do not suddenly fall just like that. there must be a cause. But I would suggest you have to pay back the loan amount as soon as possible when you have the opportunity

bitcoin is held up by alot of value.
such as the cost of mining makes the difference of if its profitable to mine, then people will mine to sell for profit
when its not profitable to mine people will buy coin instead of electric.
this becomes an equilibrium of base value

speculation sits ontop of this base value. take for instance the 2018 era of $20k price whilst the mining cost was below $4k that was just too much speculation to last this was alot of bubble above the value waterline

then after the $20k price drop. mining took the profit and upgraded hardware.. which caused underlying cost increases to ~$5.6k as they invested in more hardware,
this helped keep a healthy speculation 'foam' of $6-$10k that summer

then next gen tech came out making it cheap to mine at just $3k again. and so the $10k foam become a $6k bubble. and that collapsed the price down to the >$4k mark in that autumn

..
i say all this because these 'collateral loans' businesses do not take collateral at its current BTC price.. but at the underlying value line. true collateral value.
so i can see why they would only offer loans out at a $5.9k collateral level. it makes sense

..
and right now. btc base value water line is at ~$3.7k-$10k
the manufacturers only cost is electric (retail hardware sales profit cover hardware cost) so $3.7k
for the retail buyers of hardware and at efficient 4c/kw electric they have a cost of $10k

so although there is alot of the buy or mine gameplay keeping the value in the $9k range. there is a small chance that it can dip to $4k again
and this would only be a non problem when the hashrate vs mining cost electricity bill goes up
so hope for a increase in hashrate, and watch out for a large drop in hashrate
because
low hashrate=profitability=more reason to sell
high hashrate=costly=more reason to buy and not mine

then there is deeper math and psychology
imagine if 30% of mined coins is mined by those affording $4k cost. and they only need to sell half their stash to cover electric..
over all thats only a sell pressure of 15% of mined coins down to $4k
there are alot of miners that give up mining at $9k and instead just buy coins and that is the 70% buy pressure above $9k
the other 15% sell pressure is from those with costs between $4k- $9k (variant baseline above $4k)
but overall its like a 70%:30% equilibrium in favour of keeping the price where it is
and it would require either a low hashrate to change that equilibrium. or some big bad news that can poke at someones emotions to affect their investment plans.

so overall i dont consider it a big chance.. but a small chance.
and your overall safe at ~190exa hashrate so hope the hashrate approaches that line in the sand

The chance is low but do not be confident, we're halfway on that price.

Think of that there's always the chance that it can go that low as we're not that too far from the price. But as much as possible, take back your bitcoins and pay your loan if you're already capable.

The sudden drop in price of bitcoin in March was due to the outbreak. I really do not think such will happen now but again, anything is possible

Bitcoin market price what is the specific time it will drop the main answer is no one knows because the market is volatile and it depends on the investors when they pull out their funds and especially the whales those people who hold a lot of a large amount of money.


Still, there is a chance that the market price of the bitcoin will fall down immediately like last time it happens from the start of the year of January 2020 the market price of the bitcoin shows a good market income and trying to reach the 10k dollar market mark and when it comes into the month of the match all the things fall down immediately and it is starting falling down right now from 9k to 7k and after a few weeks from 7k to 5k and on that same month the price of the coin reaches over 3.9k dollars which is the lowest price of the coin recorded.

Yes,this is exactly the model of such loan services.If the collateral value drops under the amount of the loan,the "bank" liquidates the loan by selling the collateral.Loans on Bitcointalk follow the same rules.
I don't think that the lender(in this case Nexo) can really check if OP can repay his loan.
Anyway,this makes me wonder what's the point of sending your Bitcoins as a 140% collateral for a fiat loan.
This doesn't make much sense to me.I assume that OP is in big need for fiat money,but doesn't want to sell his BTC.
The chance of BTC price going back to 5.9K USD in 2020 is 50/50.You can't be sure about anything,when it comes to the price of Bitcoin.

We have just had the halvening. Historically that leads to upticks. Then we are moving into that part of the year when the jumps in price happen. One worldwide worry has been that despite the bad employment situation, the markets seems to continue to surge. This gap between the wealth of richest and subsistence level income for salaried classes MAY lead to some form of social protests. Yet, world over, people don't really have the belly for protests at this time.

A drop to 5900 from ~9500 seems unlikely. Though, one has to ask, what kind of service are they giving if they will start liquidating the assets. As long as they have your BTC, It is with them, right? What is the meaning of providing a loan service that would depend on liquidating your collateral without even checking if you can repay back in time. How does that make sense? Is this the model that most such "loan" services are following??

Maybe another coronavirus mass contamination wave? Situations that could dump bitcoin can happen suddenly and we must be prepared for them.
The world is too crazy at this moment. There is a pandemic going on, governments giving free money to their citizens, productive sector stopped or working slower, purchasing power heavily decreasing... We are living a very delicate moment and to be very confident in investments like bitcoin might be a mistake.

I'm not saying to not invest in bitcoin, but to be aware that we are living hard times.

Is it unlikely? Probably. Is it possible? VERY.

In the first place, I don't think taking such loans is a good idea, knowing how volatile the markets are. Such price drops of that magnitude ain't new. You'd know that if you took a few minutes to take a look at bitcoin's multi-year price chart.

Take a look at this alone, I could already see a few:

I am not familiar with Nexo terms & conditions since I hadn't used it ever. You took loan means you were agreed with their lending terms & conditions. So if in case the price drop below 40% then they have the right to sell bitcoin if they want and I believe they will do it. Listen, we know that everything is possible in crypto, so bitcoin fall would happen at any time. But I can't see enough reason to drop now. The last drop happened due to global pandemic and panic. Day by day people learnings to live with pandemic and believe there will not suddenly fall again. But I will suggest that you should repay the lent amount as soon as possible when you have the opportunities.

Looking at the market now and how it has been the past few weeks, the chances of bitcoin going back to $5900 is slim. Maybe a drop to $8K but nobody knows what's going to happen next.
 
While I agree that it will have to take another major economic crisis or another major FUD causing panic selling[country xx banning bitcoin or exchange xx was hacked], we shouldn't give assurance to others. kiddex or other newbies could take the "So, you have nothing to worry about. Your collateral is not going to be sold." statement as gospel truth and take out more loans.

if you look at the history, a 40% drop has always been very rare. they basically only happen if there is a massive bubble or a very big negative news during drops or side-ways market. we have neither of these since bubble ended more than a year ago and price has been under bitcoin intrinsic value so it has been underpriced for a long time and also there is a massively strong buy support at $9k that is growing in strength the lower you go.