What are the chances to get a 13+ losing streak? - page 2.

bitkilo

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Quote from: btcdevil on August 13, 2016, 04:38:00 AM

I had my bad experience with bustabit.com site where i was in 2 odds and i went from 0.01 to 0.8btc due to greedy i did not stop and the autobot was running in midnight when i was sleep they went till 32 red streak and i lost all my bankroll including my investment also. So it was lesson for me to not run the autobot just play for some time and come out if you are in winning. so their are full chances of red streak if you are playing continuously.

You let the autobet running while asleep at midnight, sorry man but you almost deserve to lose what you did.
Expensive lesson to learn but it sounds like it was a lesson you had to learn.

poplolnman

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Quote from: pedrog on August 13, 2016, 04:30:44 AM

The probability is 100%, it will eventually happen as your number of rolls increase, if you make enough rolls you will get a 1000 losing streak, it's an inevitability.

Yeah true , the more you roll the dice you would receive that 13+ losing streak or even more soon. as peope who playing dice are not countable everytime you playing and roll it i guess it's impossible to calculate how much percentage you would receive a losing or winning streak it's just would turn to a 51-49 chance .

btcdevil

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I had my bad experience with bustabit.com site where i was in 2 odds and i went from 0.01 to 0.8btc due to greedy i did not stop and the autobot was running in midnight when i was sleep they went till 32 red streak and i lost all my bankroll including my investment also. So it was lesson for me to not run the autobot just play for some time and come out if you are in winning. so their are full chances of red streak if you are playing continuously.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: btckold24 on August 13, 2016, 04:18:09 AM

Quote from: Herbert2020 on August 13, 2016, 04:12:28 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

wow 29 reds in a row!! that is wild. This thread is exactly why I never like doing chase systems with sports or anything. Its to easy to
catch one bad streak and go bust

that is why Martingale strategy is considered a bad strategy in dice. because you always have a chance of seeing a big losing streak and because of that and the fact that your losses go up exponentially you end up losing a lot of money in the end.

pedrog

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The probability is 100%, it will eventually happen as your number of rolls increase, if you make enough rolls you will get a 1000 losing streak, it's an inevitability.

bithasher

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There is no working calculation which can exactly predict the ratio or chances of appearing 13 loosing streaks. What I have faced most of the times is 8 to 10 loosing streaks in a single sessions repeatedly. This is how software works it makes correction in ratio between winning and loosing streaks but this can be any time. You can be be sure at 50% chances to appear everything in order. You can expect even more than 13 loosing streaks in a session.

Vinz24

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Based on my experience the last time I gamble, my loosing streak go up to 15 and its stops right there. Because I already loose all my investment, if not maybe it will go up to 20.

mindrust

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I experienced it and trust me it hits you when you never expect it to happen.

You may even get 20+ losing streak. It is possible. Because every event has its own probability. It doesn't change anything if you lost 100 past games. You can still lose 101st.

btckold24

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on August 13, 2016, 04:12:28 AM

Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

wow 29 reds in a row!! that is wild. This thread is exactly why I never like doing chase systems with sports or anything. Its to easy to
catch one bad streak and go bust

Herbert2020

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

you are lucky to only have 13 losing streak playing dice with a 50% chance, i usually have more than 20 losing streaks and i bust out with my bankroll taking a big hit. and my record on losing streaks in dice with 50% chance is 29 reds in a row.

HCP

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Quote from: equator on August 13, 2016, 02:12:18 AM

It is upto you what amount of bitcoins you are going to bet and what strategy are you using it, because as per your strategy the site will give red streak, if you are using martingale of odd 1.2 winnings then i think 13+ is also possible. It 100% chances of getting 13+ losing streak as the site is here to make money but not to donate money so the software is written the way that it will surely cross the mark of your loosing streak. If you are intelligent then you will stop the bet after 5th or 6th losing streak.

This is rubbish... They don't write the software so that you purposely lose. At least, not on "provably fair" sites. They don't have to.

Anyone who understands probability knows this. By simply not offering "true odds" and giving reduced payouts, they create the house edge... so if you go for 50/50 odds, you only get 1.984x payout, instead of proper 2x payout or if you select 2x payout, they only give you 49.6% chance of winning instead of 50%.

This edge is what leads to casinos making money in the long run.

And depending on your bankroll and what payouts and multipliers you're using for your strategy, you don't necessarily need to stop at 5 or 6 losses... look at mine... I was getting 60+ losses and still coming out ahead. In my case, the bankroll needs to be at least 20000x as large as your base bet... so for 10 satoshi base bet, a bankroll of 200,000.

equator

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It is upto you what amount of bitcoins you are going to bet and what strategy are you using it, because as per your strategy the site will give red streak, if you are using martingale of odd 1.2 winnings then i think 13+ is also possible. It 100% chances of getting 13+ losing streak as the site is here to make money but not to donate money so the software is written the way that it will surely cross the mark of your loosing streak. If you are intelligent then you will stop the bet after 5th or 6th losing streak.

HCP

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To answer your question, isn't the probability of that sequence happening just something like .5^13?? (0.00012207031 or 0.012207031%)... the chance for the next roll is still .5 though.

All sorts of crazy stuff can happen with "truly" random numbers and probability... I have been running some bets on a provably fair site that I trust, using Seuntjie's Dice Bot... win chance is 10.02%, so one would reasonably expect, on average, 1 win in every 10 "rolls".

My longest losing streak at this chance level is.... 68... SIXTY EIGHT!!?! Shocked

And that isn't just a once off type thing either, here is a run of around 8000 rolls from today, you can see the 4 big downspikes... they were all 60+ loss streaks...

What I can be "mathematically" sure of, is that over a very large number of rolls (infinite?), my wins/loss ratio should be somewhere close to 10.02%... everything inbetween, including "short" sequences of a couple of thousand rolls, well anything can happen.

Moral of the story? Have a big bankroll to start... and bet small Wink

crytoboost

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

It is very possible with 50% win chance and it could go over up 30 because of their provably fair system, so don't be get worry about and lesson learned martingale never works all the time, I had 22 losing streak by using martingale long time.

zend7

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Dice on computer can go to even more than 13+ losing streak even with 50% chance of winning. Thats because on online casino spins are not related to one another so you cannot martingale it. In landline casinos which offer dice the sort of dice where you play higher or lower than a certain number you can martingale it as in real life it doesn't exist the probability to be 100 consecutive times lower or 100 times higher. It will have some variance and martingaling it will bring you profit. A lot of casinos offline have banned this game or put certain limit and they have done the same with roulette. As you can see nothing we can do but chances in a computer or online flash dice game are possible that the losing streak together with 50% chance of winning be even more than 15.

ethereumhunter

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i never make any mathematical chances when playing dice and i really don't how to do that. i only play and play until 3-5 times, and when i loss in 3 times, i quit as fast as i can. but i think its good for me to know how to do mathematical chances to get win in other time.

fullypak

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:45:12 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on August 12, 2016, 09:41:03 PM

Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

Hi, I said in my post: 50% chance of winning.

In dice I don't think any mathematical calculations will give you accurate guessing because these are probably fair games and results will never repeat follow in any sequence so each time you will get different results. For me, the dice game is just for fun, and I never play this game to earn money. I will bet in sports to make some profits once in awhile.

zacc255

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Quote from: squatz1 on August 12, 2016, 09:41:03 PM

Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

Hi, I said in my post: 50% chance of winning.

squatz1

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Matters what win percentage you're at, that really is a big factor in all of this.

Let us know what it is and we should be good to check it out.

jacee

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Quote from: zacc255 on August 12, 2016, 09:12:42 PM

Hi guys, does anyone here knows what are the mathematical chances to get a 13+ losing streak playing dice with 50% chances of winning? Or how you can calculate it?

I don't know how you calculate it but based on my experience, there is a higher odds of getting a loosing streak if you have a higher bet. Most I have encountered is 12 red streak.

Topic: What are the chances to get a 13+ losing streak? - page 2. (Read 1408 times)