What Bitcoin Phase are we | Bitcointalksearch.org

Ale88

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 11, 2023, 08:16:01 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on August 11, 2023, 07:12:03 AM

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

The latter. The most normal scenario is that between now and halving we will have an upside, without beating the $69K ATH of this cycle, and post-halving we will have a proper bull run, beating that ATH and I believe passing $100K clearly after several attempts. From there I dare say no more.

This is based on what previous Bitcoin cycles have been like, which need not repeat exactly, and this cycle is a sample of that, but they are a guide for us

I totally agree with what you are saying. Maybe in the next few weeks/months we could go down a little more but I doubt we'll go below $25k, this phase is a very long and important accumulation and it's also the perfect moment to buy something more because after 2024 I'm not so sure we'll ever see again bitcoin in the $20k-30k range. And besides the halving let's not forget about the ETFs, probably several of them will be approved next year.

Sim_card

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I say that we are still in the accumulation circle because the price is fair to buy more coins. The price of bitcoin can dump but no one knows if we will have a pump before the dump because it is hard to predict the price movement of bitcoin but one can only speculate on it. There is still opportunity for people to keep on buying now because we still have some time before we will reach bitcoin halving. After the halving,it will be hard for some people to buy bitcoin. I hope to see bitcoin price reach 40k this year end and am also hoping to see bitcoin price above 100k as the new ATH price. Bitcoin price depends on demand and supply.

Lucius

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What Bitcoin Phase are we currently at?

I will offer a slightly different answer than what would be expected in a topic like this.

Given that the majority of members (as well as the OP) are constantly looking for some starting/exit points and try to orientate themselves in relation to profit, they completely ignore the phase we are in if the majority has consciously accepted that we are served with some crazy theories about the fact that it is normal and acceptable to share our private keys (seed) and still pay a monthly fee for it.

Given that the OP in some way supports the company that does this (posting a link is a form of support), I chose this type of answer to ask myself what stage of mind we are in when they sell us stories that even the most naive people should not accept.

Blitzboy

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Quote from: CageMabok on August 13, 2023, 04:04:31 AM

Quote from: bluebit25 on August 13, 2023, 02:59:57 AM

I feel that old comparisons and analyzes are unnecessary, past present and future are never stable and predictable. But it's also part of the reasons why we believe in what's going on right now, the market isn't really positive with the issues surrounding it that can easily cause price fluctuations, however, given the level of confidence in this market, I can also enthusiastically admit that a new bull cycle could begin soon in the next few years. It will be more comfortable with a long-term investment or accumulation strategy, the events that everyone mentions are widely spread, as well as some big macroeconomic news that will also impact this market.

The influence of the macroeconomic news for the market is there, because it can also bring the interest of many people to continue to enter the market before the end of this year. In addition, the time duration for the bull cycle itself may not change significantly immediately because it is still very possible for the cycle to occur after this year and also there is still quite a lot of people's belief in this. So there is a potential that this cycle can still occur again in the market in the future.

Actually, the old analysis is no longer unnecessary at this time, it's just that things that have happened in the past have started to be a little different from things that are happening now. For example, in the influence sector for the market, where now some very famous rich people are starting to be able to influence the market because their words can be heard directly by investors who like to buy the best assets in the market. Apart from that, news in some media can still take over to influence people who often enter the market so different things are starting to happen now.

Your simplistic, black-and-white view of business is horribly out of date. Have you ever thought about how quickly cryptocurrencies have grown and how they have turned established business structures on their head? Thanks to blockchain technology, even those without a physical location can now make more money than your usual business owner.

Do you really believe that logging in for an 8-hour shift and out again will bring you calm? Rethink that! The new breed of "business owner" may simply be a cryptocurrency enthusiast who never enters a conventional office because the future is digital. Although they might also have trouble sleeping due to market fluctuations, they are also at the vanguard of a contemporary economic revolution.

kryptqnick

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There's product life cycle, which is supposed to cover the stages of a life cycle of any product: introduction, growth, maturity, decline. It's actually based on interpretation of human life cycle, and it's vague enough that it can be applied, but that doesn't mean that it's useful for any product. For example, what's the life cycle of a wheel? It was invented, its usage continued to grow, I suppose it's been at the maturity stage for a while (or is it still growth because new types of wheels continue to appear?), but will it ever decline? It's a matter of interpretation, and it is an extreme case of something that proved to be particularly useful, but I'm just trying to show that it's not that simple and not that universal.
I believe the market life cycle phases are based on the product life cycle, and note that when I google 'four phases of a market life cycle', all results on the first page are from the product life cycle, so I'm not even sure how common is it to use the phases outlined in the article.
If we suppose that Bitcoin can go through the cycle for many times (and it seems to me that this is what the article indicates), we're probably at the accumulation phase. If it's a one-time thing, I'd say the second one.

CageMabok

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Quote from: bluebit25 on August 13, 2023, 02:59:57 AM

I feel that old comparisons and analyzes are unnecessary, past present and future are never stable and predictable. But it's also part of the reasons why we believe in what's going on right now, the market isn't really positive with the issues surrounding it that can easily cause price fluctuations, however, given the level of confidence in this market, I can also enthusiastically admit that a new bull cycle could begin soon in the next few years. It will be more comfortable with a long-term investment or accumulation strategy, the events that everyone mentions are widely spread, as well as some big macroeconomic news that will also impact this market.

The influence of the macroeconomic news for the market is there, because it can also bring the interest of many people to continue to enter the market before the end of this year. In addition, the time duration for the bull cycle itself may not change significantly immediately because it is still very possible for the cycle to occur after this year and also there is still quite a lot of people's belief in this. So there is a potential that this cycle can still occur again in the market in the future.

Actually, the old analysis is no longer unnecessary at this time, it's just that things that have happened in the past have started to be a little different from things that are happening now. For example, in the influence sector for the market, where now some very famous rich people are starting to be able to influence the market because their words can be heard directly by investors who like to buy the best assets in the market. Apart from that, news in some media can still take over to influence people who often enter the market so different things are starting to happen now.

_act_

legendary

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Quote from: bluebit25 on August 13, 2023, 02:59:57 AM

I feel that old comparisons and analyzes are unnecessary, past present and future are never stable and predictable. But it's also part of the reasons why we believe in what's going on right now, the market isn't really positive with the issues surrounding it that can easily cause price fluctuations, however, given the level of confidence in this market, I can also enthusiastically admit that a new bull cycle could begin soon in the next few years. It will be more comfortable with a long-term investment or accumulation strategy, the events that everyone mentions are widely spread, as well as some big macroeconomic news that will also impact this market.

I believe on the old cycles to be used to compare what is happening recently. If you check in four years after halving to the next halving, the pattern of bitcoin price movement is almost the same or similar. This even helps in predicting that 2022 will not be a good year for bitcoin. After bitcoin got to $15500 and stayed at $16000 for a long time. We believed that bull run will start this year and it happened. If not for the historical bitcoin price, many of us would not have predicted this. The halving time is getting closer, another indication that historical price of bitcoin indicating that we should buy more bitcoin and hold it for long.

Cryptmuster

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Quote from: Franctoshi on August 13, 2023, 02:36:05 AM

I agree with you, and knowing for sure that we are fast approaching the next Bitcoin's halving in 2024 and comparing the time we are in right now to when we were deep down in the ocean in 2022 with all the events that crashed the price, the best thing to do right now is to buy regardless if the market will drop further pre-halving or post-halving before the next bull run as it is quite uncertain, however, one may reserve some bullet to catch up such a scenario which if there is ever gonna be such event this market cycle.

Perhaps we are already in the initial phases of the bull market, it’s just that they will be long, almost 9 months of this year have already passed, but bitcoin is still at x2 from its bottom, and perhaps further growth will be just as slow with minor corrections. It seems that we will not see such low values for bitcoin as it was in 2022, and in the coming years we will only grow, entering a bull market phase.

bluebit25

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I feel that old comparisons and analyzes are unnecessary, past present and future are never stable and predictable. But it's also part of the reasons why we believe in what's going on right now, the market isn't really positive with the issues surrounding it that can easily cause price fluctuations, however, given the level of confidence in this market, I can also enthusiastically admit that a new bull cycle could begin soon in the next few years. It will be more comfortable with a long-term investment or accumulation strategy, the events that everyone mentions are widely spread, as well as some big macroeconomic news that will also impact this market.

summonerrk

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Now, in my opinion, we are at a rather uncertain point. It is unknown where bitcoin will go next, but according to the forecasts of my technical analysis, the price will either fall to 20 thousand, or fly to 40-50 thousand dollars per bitcoin. The fact is that now the price is in a triangle of a narrow type, and only by mid-September it will come out of it. Until then, we will be in a small fluctuation between 28 thousand dollars for bitcoin and 30 thousand. Therefore, the phase is not clear now, it is clear that some phase will be assigned later, but now I would call it a phase of uncertainty.

Franctoshi

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Quote from: ImThour on August 12, 2023, 08:01:11 AM

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased, to be honest.
But for the long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. So if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

I agree with you, and knowing for sure that we are fast approaching the next Bitcoin's halving in 2024 and comparing the time we are in right now to when we were deep down in the ocean in 2022 with all the events that crashed the price, the best thing to do right now is to buy regardless if the market will drop further pre-halving or post-halving before the next bull run as it is quite uncertain, however, one may reserve some bullet to catch up such a scenario which if there is ever gonna be such event this market cycle.

Litzki1990

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Anything can happen in the Bitcoin market so you need to be cautious and cautious then invest in Bitcoin. According to everyone's opinion, good times are waiting for the Bitcoin market, which means that the future will definitely be good for Bitcoin. Hearing such news about Bitcoin is not only natural but also makes us more interested in investing, so it is not right to invest much more than our own interests after hearing such news, considering the ability of those who have it. Then you should invest in Bitcoin. Many people are spreading positive news about the market so that the market will change according to their wishes but it is not like that at all. Since you have to take the risk of your own money, the risk should be proportionate.

pooya87

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Quote from: tbct_mt2 on August 12, 2023, 09:26:21 AM

Buying shitcoins when Bitcoin has yet ended its bear market is terrible. Because shitcoins are more vulnerable to death in bear market and if you buy them in bear market, you accept bigger risk.

It does not mean in a bull market, it is safer to buy shitcoins as they basically are shitcoins with no values and their prices are only temporarily and can disappear anytime by rug pulls, hacks, massive minting by developers or hackers.

People should always treat altcoins as they are which is pump and dump schemes. It doesn't matter if we are in a bitcoin bull or bear market, we know at any time there are multiple altcoins that are being pumped and they are always dumped afterwards.
Knowing this, people can learn to ride the waves without being dumped on to lose money. Otherwise the biggest problem is when people think these useless projects have a "potential" so they end up buying them and bag holding them for long, hoping for profit while watching their capital melt away slowly.

bussybuddy

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The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is highly volatile and often difficult to predict. Therefore, we should not rely too much on past performance patterns is very wise.

Each market cycle is truly a separate story and there is no guarantee that what has happened before will happen again in the same way. Please remain cautious and do not rely too much on predicting the market based on the past.

If you are continuing to accumulate in the accumulation cycle, it is a sensible and wise decision, especially if your finances allow. However, no one can make an accurate prediction about the future of the market. Keep yourself an optimistic view of Bitcoin's upside potential.

Husires

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If the price does not rise, this means that it will decline. Bitcoin’s attempt to stay above 30k, and the continuous failure to break resistance means that correction will happen if we do not see a rapid jump that will move us above 37k.
I expect that we will be near the $55,000 levels until next April, and then it will be easy to start a new cycle worth $155,000.
from now until April, I expect that we will visit 21,000 before settling in 42,000 for a while.

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: ImThour on August 12, 2023, 08:01:11 AM

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

We all can not time in the market and know where is bottom and when bottom will be found and confirmed. Bottom can be touched a few times before a bull run starts so I believe we will have two or three times to buy around bottom. If we miss all chances around bottom, it's our bad response against the market by being to hesitating to make buy orders.

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Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

Buying shitcoins when Bitcoin has yet ended its bear market is terrible. Because shitcoins are more vulnerable to death in bear market and if you buy them in bear market, you accept bigger risk.

It does not mean in a bull market, it is safer to buy shitcoins as they basically are shitcoins with no values and their prices are only temporarily and can disappear anytime by rug pulls, hacks, massive minting by developers or hackers.

ajiz138

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That indicator will not be far away for the next phase.
What about the previous cycle? I see the same and this is for the next bullrun, after the halving or yet to appear there will not be a significant enough increase for me it feels in the range of $50K after that maybe the end of the year to show a rally for the market.

Quote from: 348Judah on August 11, 2023, 07:12:03 AM

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

It could be that the market starts to go down but it won't be as low as what I think it's all going sideways right now and considering after the halving it's going to have a different plan.
Right now only accumulation is important, as long as there is a decline and no increase I should be able to make an early entry.

Z-tight

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Quote from: 348Judah on August 11, 2023, 07:12:03 AM

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

We can't judge accurately because we do not know what is going to happen for sure, but we can only judge using the previous cycles, and even though history tends to repeat itself, we cannot be sure it will happen exactly this time.

I don't like to predict the market, i just do what is reasonable and that is to accumulate and also use BTC as much as i can, dca makes accumulation better, so i use it. Waiting for the halving is a very interesting feeling, but an advice to people is not to buy with all of their money, they can use dca to buy, and if you buy with funds you won't be needing, it will give you the opportunity to wait for the bull run, even if it takes sometime to come.

pooya87

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Quote from: 348Judah on August 11, 2023, 07:12:03 AM

The Accumulation Circle
The Markup Circle
The Distribution Circle
The Markdown Circle

These are theories not rules. In other words the market doesn't have to follow these stages strictly.

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Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

In my opinion we are in uncharted waters because if you truly analyze the previous bull runs and the way they were growing, you can see these cycles had a repeating pattern which was broken in the last cycle since price could not go higher than $70k even though it had to go up to around $400k and have a "bubble" there then a bear market.
This is why what we have from that point, is a new trend that sometimes resembles the previous cycles and unless we can see a solid pattern again we can't start talking about repetition.

We also have the terrible situation with the global economy being in recession+inflation phase that makes bull runs harder.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

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